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Author Topic: Cash Game Hand  (Read 2435 times)
Jonboy
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« Reply #15 on: February 02, 2007, 12:55:13 AM »

i passed the hand and he showed j,10

WHAT A LAY DOWN!!! 




I think it's a marginal call/fold decision even if you know he has JT:

Any 4 or Ace ties the pot --> 6/44 x +$36 = $4.91 equity

The $36 is the profit you would make from making the call:  (($92
current pot + $20 your turn call)/2 split pot) less $20 your turn call

Any 9 wins you the pot --> 3/44 x (say) +$180 = $12.27 equity

The $180 is the profit you would make from making the call:   $92 current pot + $88** your river bet into the $112 pot

So that's less than a $3 (-EV) call ($20 - $4.91 - $12.27) if you know you're up against JT.
The fact that there are several other hands that you are favourite over has to make the $20 turn call a +EV move I would have thought.




**This amount is speculative, and if the fell (giving you the winning hand Vs his JT) then this amount may be lower. However if he was drawing to the flush, then he would most likely call a larger bet than this.

Add the fact that any K or Q splits the pot aswell, and if you know he has J10 it becomes a +EV play to call. However, you did't know, and given his rock style stats, and possible range you put him on it is a marginal call either way and I see nothing wrong with the laydown (against this particular player).
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Smart Money
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« Reply #16 on: February 02, 2007, 03:09:08 AM »

Ah, yes of course- Any K or Q splits the pot too.
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