Turn 2 pair on rainbow disconnected board. What now?

[AlexMartin]

Villain is pretty lag but good 2. Generally has big hands when it goes to showdown. We have been at it hammer and tongs ever since i 1st started playing him. Good line?

GAME #821494044: Texas Hold'em NL $2.00/$4.00 2008-01-30 02:58:08
Table Winthrop
Seat 1: JKhGYuK ($424.40 in chips)
Seat 3: nikinblinds ($412.20 in chips)
Seat 5: Begovic ($462.30 in chips)
Seat 8: GatoyBoy ($414.90 in chips)
Seat 10: DOCY64 ($134.30 in chips) DEALER
JKhGYuK: Post SB $2.00
nikinblinds : Post BB $4.00

Holecards:
Dealt to nikinblinds [   ]
Dealt to JKhGYuK [  ]
FOLD Begovic
FOLD GatoyBoy
DOCY64: Call $4.00
JKhGYuK: Call $2.00
nikinblinds : Check

Flop:
[   ]
JKhGYuK: Bet $9.00
nikinblinds : Call $9.00
FOLD DOCY64

Turn:
[   ]
JKhGYuK: Bet $99.99
nikinblinds : Call $99.99

River:
[   ]
JKhGYuK: Bet $311.41
nikinblinds : Allin $299.21

[Sonic]

My experience with these huge overbets says that Top and Bottom Pair is almost never winning, so if you know your opponent is good then the correct play is probably to fold the turn. If you think you are ahead then I like calling over raising on the turn, but I really doubt A4 is good here.

[AlexMartin]

My experience with these huge overbets says that Top and Bottom Pair is almost never winning, so if you know your opponent is good then the correct play is probably to fold the turn. If you think you are ahead then I like calling over raising on the turn, but I really doubt A4 is good here.

Tough putting it down on turn no? Unraised pot from SB, his hand feels like 2 pr no? Our hand just shot ahead of a bunch of his range 2. A2 and the hammer just got outdrawn....


 This was my toughest river decision of the night by a distance.

[Sonic]

Well you have the benefit of knowing the result but no to me his hand doesn't feel like two pair, unless it's top 2. It feels a lot more like a set. Basically any time I see large overbets it's usually to get hands exactly like A4 to call because they are beat. It's the old Sklansky wisdom of maximizing EV by playing as if your opponent has a strong (but worse) hand, although I suspect 9 times out of 10 they don't reason it out in that way.

If you call the turn then you must call the river... whatever his hand is it is already made before the river* so if you're confident A4 was ahead before then it surely still is, and you had to know when you called the turn that this is exactly what would happen.



*Unless he's on an insane flush draw of course, but the only drawing hand that I'd put any stock in would be 5s6s... maybe picking up so many outs on the turn has caused his brain to short-circuit.

[boldie]

My experience with these huge overbets says that Top and Bottom Pair is almost never winning, so if you know your opponent is good then the correct play is probably to fold the turn. If you think you are ahead then I like calling over raising on the turn, but I really doubt A4 is good here.

Tough putting it down on turn no? Unraised pot from SB, his hand feels like 2 pr no? Our hand just shot ahead of a bunch of his range 2. A2 and the hammer just got outdrawn....


 This was my toughest river decision of the night by a distance.

Really? I thought the decision was made on the turn...unless you think he plays a FD like he does on the flop and turn.

[boldie]

It feels a lot more like a set.

Agreed..if you are beat I expect him to turn over 7's or 2's.

[UpTheMariners]

 

less likely...

[LuckyLloyd]

You picked the best flop, turn and river line by a distance imo. Once you call the turn, you have to call the river. Are you beat? Sure, sometimes. But you must be beating a lot of hands that he'll do this with.

[Longy]

I like it Alex and even those his bets are strange to say the least. Im not passing 2 pair the way this has been played and the history.

[AlexMartin]

My experience with these huge overbets says that Top and Bottom Pair is almost never winning, so if you know your opponent is good then the correct play is probably to fold the turn. If you think you are ahead then I like calling over raising on the turn, but I really doubt A4 is good here.

Tough putting it down on turn no? Unraised pot from SB, his hand feels like 2 pr no? Our hand just shot ahead of a bunch of his range 2. A2 and the hammer just got outdrawn....


 This was my toughest river decision of the night by a distance.

Really? I thought the decision was made on the turn...unless you think he plays a FD like he does on the flop and turn.

yeah ur right boldie, the seeds of the tough decision were sown there. But raising is plain wrong with 2pr on that board as i lose value from the hands i beat/will bluff on the rvier. Just felt that once i call the turn im commited to calling any river bet, whatever the size. The fact that villain now shoves makes it even tougher as he kinda knows my hand as he knows i would reject the turn odds with a mediocre draw/weak hand, therefore his standard line of inducing a bluff by going for a CR can be tinkered to max me. Villain had 22 fwiw.