Another DoN sit and go (52$)

[Longy]

What sort of stacksize would you recommend you need to go into switchoff mode in a DoN

About 4k, but tbh just play the situation and the stacksizes. I have seen people lose with 4k+ stacks who shut up shop.

[vegaslover]

Fold and wait for a better spot.
Big stack should be sitting out by this stage, the fact he's playing hands tells us he'll call.
As tank has clearly stated, ICM tells us he has little to gain still playing hands at this point.

[thetank]

A mathie type explanation as to why this is a fold that may help.


If you think of this hand, or any hand in a DoN competition, imagine everyone has a % figure on their heads, and that represents their chance of making the money.

At the start of the comp, given equal skill, the number on everyone's head is 50%.

Those numbers will change each hand, but all the time the numbers will have to add up to 500%. Only 5 people will make the money, and when they do, all five will have 100% on their heads.

So what have we got here

1x4.5k stack
2x3k stack
3x1.5k stack

Let's estimate that 4.5k has 99% chance of making the money, and 3k stacks have 90% chance of making the money.

What chance do each of the 1.5k stacks have, assuming equal skill and ignoring (for the moment) other factors such as their position.

It would just be (500_a-(99+90+90_b))/3_c

a = 500%, the total number that everone's ITM% needs to add up to.

b = subtracting the three that we already have estimated.

c = dividing by three, as there are three 1.5k stacks.


So you can say, after we crunch those numbers, that each 1.5k stack in this spot has ~74% chance of making the money.
(Going back to earlier, we might adjust this figure if one of the 1.5k stacks is particualry fishy, if one of their positions is lousy, etc etc. Basically we'd take from one players % and distribute it among the others accordingly)

Anyway, we'd compare this 74% figure with how ATs does against whatever range we put big stack on. (given that we have no fold equity)

I think you said that big stack is raising 100% or close to it, ATs will have 65% equity in that spot.
As 74%>65% we can see it is a fold.


That's not the whole story though. Say our ITM% at the time was 64% instead of 74%.
We probably still should fold.
The reason being, even when we double up, we still won't make the money 100% of the time.



A lot of judgement comes into assesing situations and estimating people's chance of making the money (and by extension your own chance of making the money) in various situations.
If you start thinking in terms of looking at imagining everyone's ITM% dancing about above their heads, constantly shifting, it might help you when faced with the desicion of calling an all-in or not on the bubble of a DoN.




cliff notes : never fookin' call, everything is a fold.

[Longy]

Pretty good explanation of ICM there Tank.