Live £1/£2 NL - Value Bet River?

[dousche]

i prefer £95 to £99 but meh, other than that you played it great imo. surely its a pass if he jams on the end. no-way a live 1-2 donk finds a bluff here or thinks he's vb'ing with aq (unless its one of those, i dont know, shrug my shoulders, im all in for pittance more kinda raises). with a spade on the end i vb the same again i think.

[paulhouk03]

y didnt the villian reraise on the turn

would u still call if he reraised /jam on the turn.

[RichardL]

Pretty loose passive live £1/£2 cash game.

I'm sat with AK spades in SB.

4 callers to me and i bump it up to £13, getting called by BB and one other chap.  (Pot £45)

Flop J 6 3 (2 spades)

I lead for £22 and get just the BB calling me (Pot £89)

Turn J 6 3 A

I now bet £44 and the BB again calls (Pot £177)

River J 6 3 A 2 (flush draw missed)


We both have £250+ behind.


Value Bet the river?  How much?

If not what is the plan after checking?

Oh, and feel free to comment on the hand thus far - i got thick skin! 

I would lead for about £30-35 on the flop. your bet is too small imo.

Once the BB calls you, he basically always has something quite good for 2 reasons:

1, You raised oop pre and therefore have a big hand pre alot (big pairs is big part of ur range)
2, He called with a guy to act behind him on the flop

Once the ace comes the hand becomes quite simple to play imo. I would bet the turn for around £80 (into what would be a pot of around £115 if we had bet £35 on the flop as i believe would of been better)

This would make the pot £275 before the river, with us having £200+ back.

The best move now is to shove the river for value, because if we check he is checking everthing we beat back rather than betting it. Whereas, he might hero hands which we beat.

Check/calling is only a sensible stratergy vs someone who is bad and will bluff missed draws. this is not sensible to do here because we have two spades, and so it is unlikely that he has missed spades too.

Bet/folding is often the best river stratergy in a spot like this, but unfortunatly we are not deep enough to do this (if we had bet bigger amounts like i would of on the flop/turn - as it has left us with £200 back and a pot of £275)

That leaves us with either:

1, Shove for value
2, Check/fold

the reason i would shove for value is because it balances ur range for firing 3 barrells and ending it with a river shove. Therefore, ur opponents will ha ve a hard time hero ing u when u r river bluffing in future, and may also pay off ur big big hands with semi strong hands in future pots.

Also, ur future flop and turn bets should carry more fold equity in the future if they know u r capable of making a good/thin value shove on the river.

But the main reason for shoving is because u have the best hand alot of the time

just my opinion