Cracking 8/11 Shot

[Nico29]

I am not actually a massive xfactor fan but normally make a packet out of the show and therefore bet it every week while trading a few longterm positions.

Therefore apologies in advance for anorak sounding post.

Tbh i didn't agree with this thread at the start for one simple reason, I felt the value was in backing rachel purely to go outright. Bar the twins i thought she'd be voted off against anyone else likely to be in the bottom 2. Thus, i backed her to go at 2.37, and did my usual bet of laying the twins for the bottom two at around 2-1. I also took a speculative punt that the talented, cute, yet personality free and somewhat dull lucie, would be in the bottom 2@7-1 and would also be voted off at 40s. My opinion of the bottom 3 this week in the voting before the show was:

1-Rachel
2-Lucie
3-Miss Frank


Now after that show i've had to reevaluate my market positions. Rachel imo was no better than average. She's obviously only getting a few votes if any, and the judges tried to big her up, saying she was great when she wasn't, and giving her a make over-which okay made her look better than b4, if less edgy. I guess they want her to pay her way-with the votes, but i can't see it happening.

Now at 5-2 to go im considering going back in as im convinced she'll be in the bottom 2 again. The one problem i have is that now there could be one or 2 acts that might actually get booted up against her after tonights show. One act who i didn't forsee as a potential bottom 2er is now a real possibilty and another looks a little fragile. So perhaps the 1.89 on her to be btm 2 currently available is the better bet, it's a tough one. My opinion of the bottom 4 would now be:

1-Rachel
2-Miss frank
3-Jamie
4-Lucie/Lloyd

It's clear jamie isn't universally liked by the judges, a shame as i think the guy is much more talented than rachel. But singing the wrong type of song and the negative(ish) comments could see him really struggle with votes, i made him value at 40s to go afer the show and piled in, he's now 20s and should be about 14s i'd say.

Another act who seemed to really struggle was lloyd. The song didn't do wonders for him and simon's comments were scathing. However, i really cannot see this kid in the bottom 2 as i believe he'll grab the girlie vote if joseph doesnt hog it all. The problem is as soon as he fails with the public id be pretty certain the panel (simon) would just ditch him immediately as although he can't really sing they think he's marketable, if he gets no votes they'll just boot him off.

As for lucie i now can't see her being ko'd after that quality yet boring peformance tonight, but it's still  possible she could be in the bottom2 as im not sure what demographic will vote for her.

Misss frank are distinctly average and could drop into the bottom 2, where they'd struggle against most acts bar the twins and rachel, i've had a small saver on them to go@9-1 incase they found themselves up a heavyweight act like jamie or lucie.

Olly looks a solid choice to stay in 4 a while as does the likeable, jadesque stacey. Danyl is the class of the feild and i've still not traded out of my initial bet at 7-1 when the series started. Once he goes 2-1 i may green up a bit. Joseph sings well imo and is the real danger to danyl walking away with this comp.

But the real stars of the show are those twins, ppl watch to see what they'll do, it's saturday night entertainment at it's best. I keep laying them to be in the bottom2 each week-probably will do till week 5  or 6. I'd bet they are not even in the bottom 5.
Ppl seem to think this show is just about singing, that's why it's so easy to make money on these markets. Eventually the twins will become tiresome, but they might even make the last 3 like that dire same difference act a couple of years ago, that's why 66-1 was a nice price on them at the start of the show, each way of course.

Good luck all.

[action man]

brilliant post. I agree with everything you say, its all about what market of voters each act has, racheal has no market at all.

i agree with racheal and miss frank for the bottom 2.  The judges will get rid of racheal if shes in the bottom 2, they have to, 2 previous black female winners in last 2 years and the fact shes been in the bottom 2 the last 2 weeks, they will have to give the other act shes in with another chance as they gave racheal chances and still no votes.

Its quite clear that danyl is simons first string act. (he stands up to appluad him and gives him the best song every week) tonight was prime example, best big band song by a mile,
although going on popular opinion with all the people i speak to, olly is a lot of peoples favourite, he is very cool despite being really humble with a great adaptable voice.

will be looking at getting 6 on racheal and miss frank coupled for bottom 2 and laying the world on lloyd and J&E for the bottom two. GL all

[stereoman]

Odds currently at 4:44am over at Betfair:

[Ironside]

not sure where the spite voting against simon comes from

he was openly hostile about same difference but then signed them to his label

[stereoman]

True but they haven't done much apart form holiday camps since then.

I think Simon Cowell gave them ONE chance at a single back in November last year and the public didn't latch onto it and much like other acts who haven't had immediate success, Simon Cowell left them floundering.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same_Difference

[Ironside]

True but they haven't done much apart form holiday camps since then.

I think Simon Cowell gave them ONE chance at a single back in November last year and the public didn't latch onto it and much like other acts who haven't had immediate success, Simon Cowell left them floundering.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same_Difference

i read they were working on an album in the studio just now and touring with leon

[scotty2hatty]

True but they haven't done much apart form holiday camps since then.

I think Simon Cowell gave them ONE chance at a single back in November last year and the public didn't latch onto it and much like other acts who haven't had immediate success, Simon Cowell left them floundering.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same_Difference

i read they were working on an album in the studio just now and touring with leon

Leon was a joke winner. Spotted his album for 99p in Head in town the other day.

[Scottish Dave]

True but they haven't done much apart form holiday camps since then.

I think Simon Cowell gave them ONE chance at a single back in November last year and the public didn't latch onto it and much like other acts who haven't had immediate success, Simon Cowell left them floundering.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same_Difference

i read they were working on an album in the studio just now and touring with leon

Leon was a joke winner. Spotted his album for 99p in Head in town the other day.

Probably due to the fact he was on the pitch at half time at Ibrox just after he won the show

[hatthehole]

Was Rachel in the bottom 2?

[Dewi_cool]

no