Interesting spot

[PizzicatoXev]

Ok I have had a couple of opinions on this HH but fancied throwing it a little wider (sample size and all that :p). FTOPS 13 was a $322 $1.35m Gtd full ring tournament

Full Tilt Poker Game #25560573374: FTOPS Event #13 (186718865), Table 178 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:02:02 ET - 2010/11/14
Seat 1: JuanManya (14,519)
Seat 2: dboy55 (6,877)
Seat 3: Camouflaged (6,889)
Seat 4: Pizzicato_Xev (15,800)
Seat 5: LAKI-AV (3,325), is sitting out
Seat 6: wazzag74 (3,726)
Seat 7: AZORIAN PIMP (5,000)
Seat 8: betrthanphil (3,925)
Seat 9: bdubs3737 (13,635)
Camouflaged posts the small blind of 60
Pizzicato_Xev posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Pizzicato_Xev [ ]
LAKI-AV folds
wazzag74 has 15 seconds left to act
wazzag74 has timed out
wazzag74 folds
wazzag74 is sitting out
betrthanphil has 15 seconds left to act
betrthanphil raises to 300
bdubs3737 has 15 seconds left to act
bdubs3737 calls 300
JuanManya folds
dboy55 folds
Camouflaged folds
Pizzicato_Xev calls 180
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Pizzicato_Xev checks
betrthanphil has 15 seconds left to act
betrthanphil checks
bdubs3737 checks
*** TURN *** [ ] []
Pizzicato_Xev bets 666
betrthanphil calls 666
wazzag74 has returned
bdubs3737 calls 666
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
Pizzicato_Xev checks
betrthanphil checks
bdubs3737 bets 2,011
Pizzicato_Xev has 15 seconds left to act
Pizzicato_Xev has requested TIME

Both opponents were running at 18/14 over the previous 160 hands or so. I cant remember post flop stats of villain 1, villain 2 (the bettor) was running at 40% bet flop, 30% bet turn and 30% bet river. Villain 1 was solid enough from what I remember though. Neither player has gotten out of line at all yet.  I have also been playing pretty tight and solid though I have have had some big hands/flops paid off nicely.

The more I look at it now the more I edge towards calling but I really don't think its a simple spot due to the bet sizing...

[Rupert]

think theres a decent amount of hands that call that dont bet and dont think theyre going to be bluffing very often so id just bet small on river and make them payé a 9/wk T

as you played it theres no way im folding, u have a set

[Rupert]

hey we could c/f actually thinking about it more

[SuuPRlim]

I think the stats ur referring to need to be considered in the context of this hand where the guy BETTING the river hasn't had the initiative in the hand....

I would lean towards a bet fold as the most optimal line but when he bets so big on the end i think its makes it a fold in this particular vacuum. Altho a lot of times i would end up actually calling because I kinda can't bring myself to fold, but pretty much verything i ee in the hand makes me sure he isn't bluffing hardly ever....

I spose there are hand that value bet that we beat still but....

[NigDawG]

think i prefer bet/folding river to anything else

prefer check/calling if the draw misses, really dislike it here actually.

[action man]

trivial bet/fold on riv

as played feel free to press the call button swiftly

this isnt a discussion for anyone who plays $320 tourns

[AlexMartin]

close between b/f and c/f i think. looked at first and thought the pfr was betting (in which case snapping) but its the coldcaller and the turn went 3way to river. nitty c/f i think.

[SuuPRlim]

I think as well on a seperate note (and this is the cash player in me speaking) but if I use my HUD stats for NL tournaments I always use Agression frquency by street (flop/turn/river) It makes a monsterous differnce in PLO but i think it does in NL as well (spesh in MTTs where your average player tends to have a reasonably unbalanced style)