nl400 turn set

[Rupert]

SB is a 40/25 fish whos main leak is calling too much, he's fairly passive overall but is capable of value betting tptk type hands.  UTG is just some nitty 21/16 reg.  Thoughts on all streets plz!

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
SB ($430)
BB ($400)
UTG ($400)
Hero ($1,047)
CO ($404)
BTN ($855)

Dealt to Hero

UTG raises to $14, Hero calls $14, fold, fold, SB calls $12, fold

FLOP ($46)

SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

TURN ($46)

SB bets $34.50, UTG calls $34.50, Hero raises to $112, SB calls $77.50, UTG calls $77.50

RIVER ($382)

SB checks, UTG bets $274 (AI), Hero folds?

[DMorgan]

Not really a big cash player but I'll have a go

I'm not really thrilled to be calling pre vs nitty reg if he knows that you're not a random 'cos he's just not gunna stack off to you particularly light. I think you can make a case for firing the flop, not sure what my reasoning would be 'cos I guess its not for value, more for the fact that if you check here and someone bets the turn you can't really continue on any non 6 or 7 turn so you're pretty much waving the white flag.

I'd raise quite a bit bigger on the turn too. At least $150 with the bet and the call before you. River is a pretty trivial fold imo, just can't see him doing that with worse into 2 people especially the fish

[SuuPRlim]

if there are bad players in the blinds im pretty happy to be calling pf - at least one should flick it in and we're IP vs a fish and a nitty PFR.

Agree firing the flop with a fish in the SB i doubt UTG ever checks aything half decent back, he could have 88-KK a decent amount but I think there is a decent chance SB will peel OOP with a slightly dominated range - bad draws mainly, and force UTG to fold out most mid pairs

rest I think think is good. sigh@that river, spose 66 is most likely holding - seems impossible for him to be bluffing given that you can very easily have a 6 and will not be folding it for all the tea in china.

[titaniumbean]

Is UTG the sort of bad reg that once he checks on this texture he's more often than not folding ? if so I might turn my hand into a bruff on flop and bet and go from there. I'm fine with flatting pre if there are few players likely to squeeze behind + people behind willing to do flat calls and play bad. UTG just must have a 6 he can a;sdfjkalsdfaskdjf off. sigh. click the left one.

[AlexMartin]

all looks good apart from turn sizing, 150ish i think. fold river, somehow he's got it.

[SuuPRlim]

Is UTG the sort of bad reg that once he checks on this texture he's more often than not folding ? if so I might turn my hand into a bruff on flop and bet and go from there. I'm fine with flatting pre if there are few players likely to squeeze behind + people behind willing to do flat calls and play bad. UTG just must have a 6 he can a;sdfjkalsdfaskdjf off. sigh. click the left one.

yh I like flop bet because fish in the SB can call with worse a fair bit, whereas UTG will prolly fold TT or something after bet and a call - problem is we DEFO have to be firing the turn vs the fish and he's likely top have decent equity and prolly wont fold....

uuuummmmmmmm maybe chk flop is optimal, you prolly took nut line

[redarmi]

You say UTG is nitty but how nitty???  what do you think his preflop UTG raising range is??  67 is fairly unlikely given your holding and 56 doesn't sound that nitty to me.  Is he capable of betting a missed flush draw although surely that would be smaller??  Suppose 66 and 88 is possible and AA looks a fairly big runner too.  On balance I think I fold but I keep changing my mind on it.

[SuuPRlim]

You say UTG is nitty but how nitty???  what do you think his preflop UTG raising range is??  67 is fairly unlikely given your holding and 56 doesn't sound that nitty to me.  Is he capable of betting a missed flush draw although surely that would be smaller??  Suppose 66 and 88 is possible and AA looks a fairly big runner too.  On balance I think I fold but I keep changing my mind on it.

Its literally never a bluff as described imo