Is this completely out of the ordinary (UKIPT related)

[Longines]

I went 9 (1 hour) levels without seeing a pair over 88. (not an exaggeration)

Does anyone with more live experience know if this happens occasionally, or is just pretty ridiculous.

I think this is right: 1 / ((215 / 221)^300) / 100

i.e. about 39/1 to not get a pair higher than eights in 300 hands.

Think that qualifies as occasionally.

[Spraggs]

ahhh some maths, thanks, wasn't sure if i could get a figure that accurate, but thats what i was after, ty

[Cf]

I went 9 (1 hour) levels without seeing a pair over 88. (not an exaggeration)

Does anyone with more live experience know if this happens occasionally, or is just pretty ridiculous.

I think this is right: 1 / ((215 / 221)^300) / 100

i.e. about 39/1 to not get a pair higher than eights in 300 hands.

Think that qualifies as occasionally.

Can't be bothered doing the maths myself but that figure won't be quite correct I don't think. There's more combinations of unpaired hands than paired hands so you can't simply do total number of hands - 6.

[Longines]

Can't be bothered doing the maths myself but that figure won't be quite correct I don't think. There's more combinations of unpaired hands than paired hands so you can't simply do total number of hands - 6.

Think we're both wrong. I got the total number of possible hands wrong. Yes, there are more unpaired hands than paired (156 v 13) but why is not just 6/169 for the change of getting dealt 99-AA?

So it should be 1 / ((163 / 169)^300)

Duuno why I put  / 100 in there too - meant I was out by 100 first time 

So latest estimate is 51254/1. ul OP.

[Longy]

The chance of getting aces is not 1/169 is it?

It is 1/221 as once you are dealt one ace, there are only 3 aces left in the deck. Whereas for unpaired hand, ak for example, there are still 4 kings left in the deck.

So it is 6/221 as the same maths applies for all pairs.

So 1/((215/221)^300)= whatever

[TightEnd]

A spell like this seems completely standard in my experience. Frustrating, but standard.

Can be very difficult for predominantly online players to cope with, not only do they have far fewer hands to get used to but patience when card dead is highly difficult I see this often when live updating!   

[MANTIS01]

ahhh some maths, thanks, wasn't sure if i could get a figure that accurate, but thats what i was after, ty

Forget all the maths mumbo jumbo because the truth is some people are lucky at cards and some aren't. If you were lucky at cards you would deffo have got a few AKs in that 9 hour period. Time to face the truth brother.

[Longines]

Heh, looks like I now know that I know that I know just enough probability to probably get it wrong...

There are 169 starting hands but they are not all equally likely[1], as Longy rightly points out you're 220/1 to get a specific pp.

So, strike #3....

There are 1326 possible starting hands taking into account order and suits [2].

There are 6 pocket pairs higher than eights. There are 6 ways of getting each of those pairs taking into account order and suits[3]. So 6x6 out of 1326 of getting 99+.

1/((1290/1326)^300) = 3855/1.

 


[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_hold_%27em_starting_hands
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_hold_%27em_starting_hands
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_%28Texas_hold_%27em%29

[Spraggs]

ahhh some maths, thanks, wasn't sure if i could get a figure that accurate, but thats what i was after, ty

Forget all the maths mumbo jumbo because the truth is some people are lucky at cards and some aren't. If you were lucky at cards you would deffo have got a few AKs in that 9 hour period. Time to face the truth brother.

i had AKo once and AQo 3 times, cool post tho

[SuuPRlim]

ahhh some maths, thanks, wasn't sure if i could get a figure that accurate, but thats what i was after, ty

Forget all the maths mumbo jumbo because the truth is some people are lucky at cards and some aren't. If you were lucky at cards you would deffo have got a few AKs in that 9 hour period. Time to face the truth brother.

i had AKo once and AQo 3 times, cool post tho

Hilarious post imo

[MANTIS01]

ahhh some maths, thanks, wasn't sure if i could get a figure that accurate, but thats what i was after, ty

Forget all the maths mumbo jumbo because the truth is some people are lucky at cards and some aren't. If you were lucky at cards you would deffo have got a few AKs in that 9 hour period. Time to face the truth brother.

i had AKo once and AQo 3 times, cool post tho

The AQs don't count. If they were suited they might have counted but not off suit. Sorry, it all seems to add up to you were born unlucky my friend.