would you have called this?

[Graham C]

£2 mtt on crypto

I folded at the all in and as it happens, I could have won had I called but I was wondering if I should have taken the risk.

I didnt call because Im in a fairly healthy position and didnt want to ruin it.  I guess you dont get to be chip leader like this though

-----HAND 5------
Game #1284715334: Hold'em NL (50/100) - 2006/01/04 - 22:06:16 (UK)
Table "Tourney 1666123 - 2" Seat 3 is the button.
Seat 1: Blyth002 (625 in chips)
Seat 2: RealMcoy (10692.50 in chips)
Seat 3: richie200 (1720 in chips)
Seat 4: Gaz5150 (1980 in chips)
Seat 5: silo (4730 in chips)
Seat 6: grmreaper (5435 in chips)
Seat 7: Fudgeski (1925 in chips)
Seat 8: Rafiky (2080 in chips)
Seat 9: neil61 (2265 in chips)
Seat 10: MJC plum (1350 in chips)
Gaz5150: posts small blind 50
silo: posts big blind 100
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to silo [ ]
grmreaper: folds
Fudgeski: folds
Rafiky: calls 100
neil61: raises to 200
MJC plum: folds
Blyth002: calls 200
RealMcoy: folds
richie200: folds
Gaz5150: folds
silo: calls 100
Rafiky: calls 100
----- FLOP ----- [ ]
silo: bets 425
Rafiky: folds
neil61: raises to 2065 and is all-in
Blyth002: is all-in 425
silo: folds
Returned uncalled bets 1,640 to neil61
----- TURN ----- [ ][]
----- RIVER ----- [ ][]
----- SHOW DOWN -----
neil61: shows [ ] (A Pair of Kings, Ace high)
Blyth002: shows [ ] (A Pair of Kings, Queen high)
neil61 collects 2125 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot 2125 Main pot 2125 Rake 0
Board [ ]
Seat 2: RealMcoy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: richie200 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Gaz5150 (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: silo (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: grmreaper folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Fudgeski folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Rafiky folded on the Flop
Seat 9: neil61 showed [ ] and won (2125) with A Pair of Kings, Ace high
Seat 10: MJC plum folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[Highstack]

Well you were getting the correct odds and a call didn't leave you on the rails so I probably would have made it, but it is a marginal one and certainly nothing wrong with the fold.

[jezza777]

I dont mind moving in with a draw like this but i have a hard time calling . It's a fold for me

[M3boy]

correct odds?? with only 6 outs? hmmmmmmmmmmmm i think not

I would of pushed on the flop - or check raised them all in

No call though, fold in ur situation for me

[Nem]

correct odds?? with only 6 outs? hmmmmmmmmmmmm i think not

That's what I was thinking LOL

[Graham C]

Cheers I was on abit of a downer because I seemed to be folding cards that turned out nice on the flop/turn/river last night.  I know you shouldnt look at the cards and if I had played they could have been differnt

[Highstack]

YES CORRECT ODDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The money was in on the flop.

It was 1600 more into 3300 so around 2/1. He was open ended at the time with two cards to come. So his odds of hitting were also around 2/1. He only knew his cards and the flop at this point.

I usually look for the facts before I criticise a post!

[Graham C]

but my call either way was ok I guess.  I wish (obviously) I had of called. I forget about calculating odds when Im playing at the moment sometimes, must work on it

[bundle]

Silo you might want to try doing what i do, i have a board above my computer, with all the stuff i need written on it for a quick glance. on the flop  2 outs=8% =9+/1 pot odds
                                                  4 outs=16%= so on and so on
                                                  8 outs all the way to 15 outs, but really by the time you hit 13 outs it's a must call anyway

[Graham C]

yeah thats a good idea.  I used to use the outs calculator from www.best-hand.com - there is a useful info window there, but seem to have got complacent recently.

Must start again.

[Pombo]

Hi guys,

I'm more of a NL cash game player but want to work on my MTT skills.....so where better to start than this thread.

I know in this situation I would fold like you did Silo....

Highstack, you said the odds of hitting were 2/1....i thought you needed 3/1 odds for an o-e straight draw?...that's assuming all your 8 outs were good too.

I think a call here would be wrong...but like you say you wouldn't be dead in the water if you did call and missed.

Thanks.

PS...like that best-hand site Silo...thanks.

[Graham C]

no worries, I found/find it useful for discipline in deciding what hands to play with sometimes, the screen where you put your pocket cards in is useful too if you are new like me

I got it from the main blondes page in links and there are loads of useful resources there if you ever need anything

[Highstack]

Well the correct way of working out your % is actually to work out the likelyhood that you miss and not that you hit. I was demonstrating as a rough calculation for him and something that can be used as a general rule.

He has 8 winners with 2 streets to come so that means 16 chances. He knows 5 cards and that leaves 47. So very crudely there are 16 chances in 47 which is approx 2/1. The true odds are something like 9/4 I believe.

If maths isnt your strong point and working out pot odds you find difficult, it is easy to make as a quick calculation that for open enders or flush draws, you are around 2/1 on the flop and 4/1 on the turn. Sometimes outs may be discounted and drawing to the nut hands is obviously better, other occasions you may actually have more outs if your overcards are also live, however as a basic rule if the pot is paying you above these odds, then you won't go too far wrong long term.

[snoopy1239]

If my maths is correct:

Pot odds = 2.2-1
Odds of hitting straight = 2.3-1

Therefore, very marginal. Don't think anyone can moan if you call.

However, don't forget that this isn't a cash game. Sometimes it depends on what sort o player you are, how you want to work your stack, the quality of opponents, etc.

Also, my calculation obviously don't take into account the small possibilty of being beaten by a full house.


Tricky one. Good post.