Nuts on the turn

[aaron1867]

I think at this point the blinds was 150/300 and I was sat in the SB.

My Hand: QK (not suited)

2 seats on from the BB raises to 650 and there is one caller before me and I call and so does the BB.

FLOP: 10-J-3 (all different suits)

I check and it also gets checked round.

Turn: 9 (4 different suits on board)

I decide to overbet and make it look like a pinch and bet something like 2,000, BB folds, OR folds, then the guy who has just limped in re-raises me to about 6ish. So I look at the board and think well this is very dry, if he is bluffing and I re-raise  am not going to get paid, so I just flat call. We have have about 15k in chips left (he has me covered by just a little)

River: 10

I check to him and I was still very confident I was in front and even though it wasn't the best card in the deck, I was still confident. He bets 11k and I go all in, he instant calls and shows 99, obviously a full house.

Questions to be asked....?

- Should I have made numbers up in SB with QK?
- Should I have re-raises turn?
- Should I have bet flop?

My analysis on this is that I played it all wrong. I think I should have bet the flop, but I still perhaps think he would have called and re-raise on turn, he would have called too.

Help?

[Ironside]

lead the draw on the flop

as played get it all in on turn is fine he is often calling with worse straights, 2 pair hands and sets,

[zerofive]

How frequently has villain been opening? Probably fold pre.

Due to your reason for betting turn, calling is fine. If you're repping a bluff (as in, if you would do and/or have a history of betting >pot as a bluff) then it's unlikely that a decent thinking player (ie someone that can raise pre with air/worse frequently enough to justify your call pre) will raise you with a real hand as they will want you to barrel off on the river. So it's fair to say villain has way more bluffs than worse value hands.

For me, this is the nut worst river card, as their entire worse value range is either going to get there or be counterfeited. Can't see any reason not to check call here. We're not folding if we called to let them barrel bluffs here, and there's no point raising as we're commiting the last of our chips and never realistically getting called by worse. We still have a 12.5bb stack behind if we lose.

[cambridgealex]

dont shove the river, other than that, it's all ok imo

[tight4better]

I don't really understand the shove on the river as it's super unlikely you'll be called by a worse hand as the  is the WORST river in the world for you. Definitely a c/call spot, as you may pick off a missed draw or worst river value bet. (eg: Tx or 78)

Rest is fine.

[SuuPRlim]

the guy is NEVER bluffing ott imo so I'd jam but your reasons for not jamming are ofc fine

[EvilPie]

 if he is bluffing and I re-raise  am not going to get paid, so I just flat call. We have have about 15k in chips left (he has me covered by just a little)

Apply this same logic to the river and you're just about there.