Long time reader/first time poster..

[eoka5559]

Hi all,

Please feel free to post up some critical analysis on the following hand at your leisure...it culminates in a bit of a pickle of a river decision...a la Ivey's A6 vs Dwan's uber bluff on HSP....

Game                      - £5/10 NLHE cash (9-handed)
Location                  - Palm Beach London
Stacks/Positions        - Me £5650 (UTG+1), Opponent #1 £18,000 (Highjack), Opp #2~£1500 (Button)

Images;
Me - tight/agro, solid, ABC, low 3-bet %, picking up small/medium pots in position utilizing image.
#1 - young LAGGY interenet pro, very tricky knowledgable reg, infrequently plays £10/25, enjoys table captain image, showing bluffs etc....10mins previously he 4-bet pre and got to showdown with sort-of-thing...
#2 - nittyish table shortstack.

So I open to £40 (UTG+1) with , sure enough #1 jacks it up to £125, #2 flats and I come along. This is a pretty standard occurance - I have a small history with 3-better in question - I don't think its fair to say he picks on me as he picks on everyone, but we have cock-waved in large pots in the past with rather mediocre holdings, and have shown each other. However its fair to say he gets involved with war games far more than myself. With AJ/AT etc I'm insta-folding here, spesh with #2's flat, but with the suited connectors its a perfect situation to get good value off high potential cards.

To the flop;    .

I'm first to act and consider leading. However with the LAG in question who is liable to cram it up with anything do I really want to risk being priced out of the pot OOP? #2 coming along is also an issue, he could easily have AK/AQ here. And also remember we are pretty deep, he is chip bigstack, I'm 4/5th. I decide to proceed with caution and check.

#1 quickfires a £175 probe. #2 gets out of the way and its back on me.

I'm clearly not folding here, but also dont want to turn my hand face up. By check-calling its a bit like waving the white flag if I brick the turn. The A on the flop is a good card as a raise should knock out the med/big pocket pairs. Then again we're soo deep. And he's in position. This guy is a profit-making reg. He may well read me for exactly what I've got, and although the rest of the table views me as pretty ABC tight, he knows I'm not, and have been capable in the past of getting it in light.

I opt for the check-raise, a total of £550.

He looks at me seemingly ruefully. The "do I really want to go to war?" look. My gut instinct is that a fold is quickly coming. I am wrong. He commits the chips. I am a bit surprised but nevertheless not too unhappy with the situation. I think his range here is still super-wide. Any number of draws, combo and otherwise, a big A getting stubborn, or even some kind of flopped set wanting to minimize variance and peel a turn card to assess it's scaryness.

To the turn,  .

The King is not great for me as he could have easily hold AK or more likely a K high flush draw, in which case a) I'm drawing thin, b) no chance of pushing him off. Then again I've set my stall out on the flop and feel I need to continue telling the story, ie. repping a set or flopped 2 pair. On the other hand what on earth is he going to call the flop he wouldnt on the turn?? He's just not the type of player to fold a big draw here, eg QdJd etc...
Anyway all things considered I fire out. In hindsight I'm still unsure about this play. By check calling I'm turning my hand face up. I could check-fold but its just sooo weak. I could check-raise but then risk getting back raised if he has played AAA tricky, thus being unable to see that all important river.

So I guess I decide by default to fire the turn, £950.

The more I think about this the more I've been asking "what exactly am I hoping to achieve with this bet?" What on earth is he going to fold the turn that he's called the flop with? The meta-game here is huge undoubtedly, but really the only thing I'm gonna get to fold is an out-and-out float. And he may have floated the flop with the intention of taking it away on the turn, so even then I may not get what I want.

He deliberates again, gives me a wry look, and eventually calls.

With nearly 4k in there the table banter has quietened down as players give the situation the respect it deserves.

The river;  .

River pairs my 6. To the untrained eye its clearly only a 6, but I do have showdown value against one or 2 draws namely JdTd, QdJd. In fact QdJd is a distinct possibility the way the hand has played out. I think the JdTd jams the flop and/or turn there, a non-combo draw folds the turn, In either case I've represented my hand as a flopped 2 pair minimum, he knows in general I am fairly tight but against each other we do like to tangle.
So I'm thinking do I fire out a 3rd bullet and look like a moron when he insta-shoves on me with the Td7d? Do I bet some kind of ridiculous stop-bet of a few hundo?
I guess it was more through hope than expectation but I eventually decided to check hoping for a sigh-check back.

Wishful thinking.

With my eyes down chewing gum, I try to look as strong as position, when I hear a splash of chips crash into the pot. I look up as its being cut out. The bet is £1975.
I have £4k back.

I remember Ivey tanking up for 7 minutes on HSP with 4th pair.

So I tank up going over the entire hand thinking what I can beat, what I cant. More importantly of course is what I think he puts me on. I'm sure he would expect me to bet a flopped set on the river. He'd be right. So I'm guessing he's putting me on flopped 2 pair, A9/A8, even 98, and is therefore making a large river bet  making it fiendishly difficult for me to call, especially with 98.
I'm basically bluff catching. He's either got AAA/T7 or Q high.

Then I start thinking, what a minute, a KdXd 9dXd type of hand is exactly what he could have here...other than Td7d...surely AAA slams that flop in the hope I too have flopped a set? And if not the flop then CERTAINLY the turn....No he absolutely cannot have played AAA this tricky....No chance. This is  or nada.
If I hero-call and he sigh-shows the my brain is going to seap out of my ears (whats left of it) and all over the floor. And that might cause a bit of a mess to clean up. Never mind the stench. Shall I just order a large whisky, drink it very quickly, and fold? wait for another day??? God I hate it when they're bluffing with the best hand.

So the question is what to do?
Answer to what I did do forthcoming...

[Ricardov83]

Ha.  Good post.

As to the hand, not a clue.  Probs just fold it.  Too many hands he could be turning into bluffs that beat you.

[silverslick]

I would have folded pre but I am a nit and would fold here. Calling does not feel right as if he his bluffing he could be beating you with an 8 or 9. Final alternative is the c/r all in whcih I would prefer to a call.

[parker]

dont like the c/r on the river. he then calls 2k to win 7k or watever and may sigh call with a hand that still beats you.  is a possibility to a think.

will villian think your intention on the flop is to c/r or that youre doing it because #2 folded?

i think he can have aa here. he is obviously aware of his image. he has raised pre with half a table behind. hates life but has to bet an awful wet board.

i think he can call your flop /craise and call turn to pot control a really wet board. If he knows you can have any kind of drawing hand here he may pot control to disguise his hand. by 3betting flop he reps massive strength and only gets value from a very thin range.

then again.... youve said in op that you dont put him on aa and im guessing this may be a brag post for a hero call so im probably mega wrong!

[cambridgealex]

Hero calls are the best when you only beat like one specific hand. As in, they feel the best when right, but they're usually bad calls long term. I'd be folding here.

[MC]

I don't see why you rule out AK as a possible value hand he could have. His line is consistent with that.

But yeah i predict a brag post so he presumably had the missed combo draw.

[Mondeoman]

His river bets not that large in relation to the pot - in fact it's prob on the small side.  Disagree with your analysis of what hands he can be value betting - it can be aces up plus imo.   Also dont see why he can't have AA/AK i wouldnt generally 3 bet the flop with top set unless i had a pretty strong read my opponent was very strong.
Calling on the river is definitely burning money (unless you have some super live read).  Raising is better than calling but folding is the best option.  As for the earlier streets think you played it fine just got unlucky that you missed a big draw and he had a hand strong enough to call your barrels with. 

[eoka5559]

All things considered, calling here would be out of the question, for the reasons stated.....so in deciding between shipshove and muck I concluded stacking off would be too much to risk....even tho he cannot call off with a non-A pair, I assume.

So anyway I did muck, and flung over £50 for him to show. "Make it a hundred" came the reply.
"urgh go'ooon then".

He showed   .

"You flop 2 pair right?"
"Yeah something like that, nice hand buddy"

Can only assume he would have folded to a shove, despite getting 3/1+ or whatever.....when your beat your beat right? Anyway we'll never know, but it did make me talk to myself the entire car journey home, hence my reason for splurging it all on here. To pull the trigger or not to pull the trigger. Meh.

[SuuPRlim]

dont like the flop c/r OOP. as played I think you have to bet the river or c/f even though you're repping 88/99/A9s c/c massive spew and c/shove even thinner when he can have T7dd and AK which almost certainly wont fold.

IP i raise this flop all day puts him in a complete coffin even with a hand as strong as AK and you can give him the barrels pretty comfortably down the streets but OOP vs someone tricky who can read hands I think it's inviting yourself to get owned in a pot you've inflated yourself. I realise that c/c makes the hand pretty hard to play and you're going to be folding a lot of turns but you OOP to a good player with 6high so it's not ever going to be easy.

[parker]

he seems like a solid player sit on his left next time haha

[SuuPRlim]

tbh I think there is a decent case for folding pre-flop even though I don't think i'd every actually do it.

If the guy is 3betting every hand you could consider limping, then he iso's and the pot is likely multi-way will prolly make your hand way easier to play.

In-game I'd have done exactly as you did pf though.