Rate my bluff

[cambridgealex]

50euro french comp, 2 dayer, vdeep itm.

Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: ..POUCOTCHE (638957)
Seat 2: FRANCK4500 (544640)
Seat 3: Sr Croissant (1438632)
Seat 4: ctlime (1421809)
Seat 6: gui6790 (471134)
Seat 7: P.Royal 22 (498509)
Seat 8: O RLY (262448)
Seat 9: DrLane (415640)
*** ANTE/BLINDS ***
O RLY posts ante 3200
DrLane posts ante 3200
..POUCOTCHE posts ante 3200
FRANCK4500 posts ante 3200
Sr Croissant posts ante 3200
ctlime posts ante 3200
gui6790 posts ante 3200
P.Royal 22 posts ante 3200
O RLY posts small blind 12500
DrLane posts big blind 25000
Dealt to Sr Croissant [ ]
*** PRE-FLOP ***
..POUCOTCHE folds
FRANCK4500 folds
Sr Croissant raises 25000 to 50000
ctlime calls 50000
gui6790 folds
P.Royal 22 folds
O RLY folds
DrLane folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Sr Croissant bets 56555
ctlime calls 56555
*** TURN *** [ ][]
Sr Croissant bets 125555
ctlime calls 125555
*** RIVER *** [ ][]
Sr Croissant bets 385555

Sizing? Bigger than necessary? Repping all value hands and not much he can call with. Think AQ is near the top of his range and has to fold.

Realise the turn bet isn't getting through often at all, but think its a good triple barrel spot (has to fold a bunch of pair+missed straight draws) so bet with the intention of firing more or less any river except for a Q.

[DMorgan]

Any reads on villain?

In my experience you just get so few folds on board pairs that I'd give up this river. When he's sitting there with Qx I think the old 'its so sick if you backdoored trips' is going through his head and he really wants to just flick in cos your sizing in his mind makes you pretty damn polarised.

I think the thought process of knowing that you're getting called a lot on the turn by pair+draw stuff so needing to fire river almost always is really good. Agree that bet turn/give up a lot of rivers would be really bad. Board pairs are pretty much the only rivers I'm not bombing. I think if you're gunna bet river then thats the sizing you should go for. If river bricks and you bet this size I think its wp, just unlucky to get a bad river that he's gunna want to station on a lot imo.

[cambridgealex]

Thanks Dan. No reads, no.

[muckthenuts]

Think Dan's post is really good, but i'm still torn because your range is soooo much stronger than your opponents when you bet this river so it feels very pussy not to fire the 3rd barrel. Itm pressures could play a factor too. But readless it's probably fine to give up too for the reasons Dan said.

[pleno1]

He has kj,kq maybe kt and maybe ak in his range too as well as sometimes tens

[wazz]

Doubt he's folding much on the river.

I need a reason to open preflop, I think.