Thin river PLO call

[wazz]

Can't remember exact preflop sizing but villain opens from EP and I 3b relatively small to keep the megafish in. He's in position and has been putting tons of money into the pot with not very much, but he folds this hand.

I have and the pot is ~ $400. Flop . I bet $200 and get raised to $650. I call. Turn Ah. He checks, I check. River . He bets $1200 into $1700.

Villain is aggressive and capable and views me as similar but we haven't had any big confrontations. I'm winning well but very recently fired a big river bluff that got called and I'm pretty sure it was a terrible bluff.

Stacks are ~$10k.

[GreekStein]

I can't see him raising an airball on the flop so to me his range is 2 pair, sets and nfd (esp given we have K and J blocked and the Q is on the board), maybe even AA with clubs (which I'd expect a flat from pre very often this deep).

Do you think this is too narrow of a range? I personally hate live PLO because they never spread it as 6max so whenever I've played it it's usually just a nitfest and feels like playing 11-handed NL. Just doesn't work very well imo.

I just can't think of enough hands I want to call against and once we check back turn and the board runs out like this I don't wanna raise either.

[wazz]

Well I figure it's a great flop to c-bet, which I will be doing with a bunch of single pair and backdoor hands as well as most flush draws, given it doesn't hit very many made hands in his range. So I expect him to check-raise with a decent range, both complete airballs, naked flush draws and single pair blockers on the Q or 7 (and possible outs). I think his value range is relatively narrow as well, sets and hands like AA+nfd which didn't want to 4b oop this deep.

When he checks that turn, I'm slightly suspicious that he has AA+nfd and is going to c/c and let me rep whatever comes on the river, but I mostly think that he's firing turn with all his value hands because he expects me to put some more money into the pot. My check I guess is pretty standard though I think it's extremely unlikely he ever goes for a double-check raise so I could take the lead and happily fold to a raise, but I think I want to keep in all the weak stuff that might give up now but pay me off otr.

Once I check back the turn my range is very capped and I have the top of it (barring 7x which won't shop up as often when b/cing flop) and I think he's bluffing a lot after taking this line. When he sizes it so big against a capped range I think he just wants to make sure it all folds but I could be wrong about this bet-sizing tell and he could just be targeting thin value-calls like with the sort of hand I have and if I've got an airball it doesn't matter at all how much he bets, other than that he doesn't want to induce a raise with a smaller bet.

I'm also blocking a decent chunk of his value range otf (top set / top two). Ofc he could have a hand like AcXc7xX but as far as I figure it's either that, 77, QQ and the occasional AA+nfd that all have to have chosen to check the turn.

[Patonius2000]

Unless he's c/r flops randomly a lot you should definitely fold because he has some sort of showdown value when he checks turn. Also bet bigger otf