QQ river spot?

[Red_Baron]

Hello. I am new to posting here. Maybe its obvious but I don't play a lot and just want to check what you guys think of this hand played on pokerstars at 10NL.

Table is 6 handed.

Me (button): $4.76 - 
Villain (UTG + 2): $9.30 - ? ?

Villain limps $0.10
Folds round to me
I raise to $0.30
Sb and Bb fold and villain calls $0.20

Pot is $0.75

Flop -     

Villain checks
I bet $0.35
Villain calls $0.35
Pot is $1.45

Turn - 

Villain checks
I bet $0.70
Villain calls

Pot is $2.85

River - 

Villain instantly shoves $7.95

I have $3.41.. what do I do?

As I say maybe its an obvious fold... or he's flopped a monster? Can someone please enlighten me..

Thanks

[verndog158]

Fairly easy fold from where I am, I cannot think of any hands he can have that we are beating, none! Even the Q10 gets there. He'd basically limp and float 2 streets with nothing, or maybe have AJ or QJ that we beat but that's about it, and why would he shove? Sigh fold, and wait till next  time for me.
Welcome to blonde!

[pleno1]

Hey something to think about is how your cards could affect his cards. PTA say he has as many Jx hands as he has kx so by betting it doesn't necessarily how a profit as 50% of the time he will have us beat and 50% of the time we will beat him.

We can bet however because he could have draws that we want to 1) protect against and 2) get value from

The main, actually the only real (when I say real I mean more than 4 outs) draw we are worried about is qt.

There is the following combinations of qt

Qc10c
Qc10h
Qc10d
Qc10s
Qd10c
Qd10h
Qd10d
Qd10s
Qh10c
Qh10h
Qh10d
Qh10s
Qs10c
Qs10h
Qs10d
Qs10s

Now when we have QcQd in our hand his combinations decrease to

Qh10c
Qh10h
Qh10d
Qh10s
Qs10c
Qs10h
Qs10d
Qs10s

So now he has 50% less drawing hands that we need to be concerned about thus meaning we should take into consideration our cards from a "blockers" perspective when thinking about whether to valuebet or not.

Further considerations should go into maximum value of our hand. Vs hands that we beat (draws/jx) is it better to bet 1 or 2 streets?

If you think about the turn

When our opponent holds jx and we bet the turn what is the chances he will call?
When our opponent holds jx and we check the turn and bet the river what are the chances he will call?

If the latter is higher than the former then it means from a value perspective vs made hands we should be betting the turn

Furthermore we should consider how we maximize value va his draws

When we bet the turn will gutshots and weak draws call us?
When we check the turn is it likely gutshots will stab at the pot?

Again if the latter is higher than the former then we should definitely check.

You may ask, how do I know the answer to the questions. Generally it's player pool population tendancies, ie what do I often see my opponents do? Are they very loose passive (calling no matter what with lots of draws) or are they more tight aggressive (betting when checked to and not chasing draws passively on multi streets) I'm general I imagine it will be the latter and the final thing to consider is what kind of showdown value will my opponent have. To work this ou we have to start to have a good understanding regarding board textures.

Lets compare t72 and 525

The drawing hands on t72 will be hands like 98 and j9 that at showdown will very likely not have the best hand. On 525 our opponents drawing hands are a4 and a3 thT have good showdown value and will often be ahead against a random hand if they both turned their hands over and stopped the betting action.

On kjx our opponent likely has q or t high and thus not great showdown. Our range looks like a small pocket pair that did employed "one and done" strategy or ace high thus meaning that q and t high would almost certainly have to bet the river when checked to.

This couple with the fact our opponent will likely fold weak draws on the turn and most likely will call jx on the river a higher % of the time than the turn means that IMO checking the turn >>>>>betting the turn.

[Red_Baron]

Thanks for the detailed answer.. really helpful.

I guess I was thinking that seeing as he limped pre-flop then just called the raise he wasn't that strong. I thought that by betting the flop and turn I could get him to fold out jx or weak kx hands (should have bet more on turn if I wanted to do this?) and I didn't put him on ak as I thought he would re-raise that hand pre-flop playing out of position.

When he ships the river I think that he either has q10 or a missed draw... I thought q10 was unlikely seeing as I held 2 queens so I called. I didn't think he was shipping with just a king...

As it turns out he held J 9 giving him two pair on the river and I paid him off...

All in all a pretty bad call.. I just had trouble putting him on a hand that would just call the flop and turn and then ship with the 9 on the river... (I thought it was possible he was slow playing a flopped set also?)

Out of interest what do you think of his all in on the river when he hits two pair??

Thanks again for your feedback.

[Longy]

I certainly can't add anything strat wise to what Pleno said, but we should be sitting with a full stack of $10 or more.

[The Soldier]

I haven't read the other replies but I'd play the hand:

Raise his limp to 4x preflop (ship)
Bet 50% of pot on flop (bet/fold)
Bet 50%/60% of pot on turn (fold)
Check/Fold river to almost any bet

He has no fold equity when he shoves/bets the river, so he is doing it for value nearly all of the time.  The majority of your range is a decent K and it is tough to fold this with your stack.