PLO - A decent flop?

[DMorgan]

Seat 3: FedReserve7 (€59.19 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero (€67.51 in chips)
Seat 8: Stonecrusher (€151.56 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: Janusch12 (€66.50 in chips)
Janusch12: Post SB €0.25
FedReserve7: Post BB €0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [  ]
Hero: Raise (NF) €1.75
Stonecrusher: Raise (NF) €6.00
Janusch12: Fold
FedReserve7: Fold
Hero: Call €4.25
*** FLOP *** [ ] (Pot: €12.75)
Hero: Check
Stonecrusher: Bet €8.00

Villain is a reg on the nittier side, his 6max stats are 20/14/6% 3b. I've been running some sims and there isn't really anything that a nitty reg is getting it in with that we have more than 40% equity against, I'm giving him AKQ9 backdoor spades as his worst bet/gii hand which could well be too wide. We've got 38% equity vs that hand so we're going to have to get a reasonable number of folds to make a c/r profitable? Given his tight 3betting range he's weighted to AAxx a decent amount and we have no 4betting history so I'd expect him to always be flatting his scrappy AAxx combos. He has a pretty low cbet at 45% over 300 hands so perhaps he's checking back a lot of the AAxx combos that I need him to be bet/folding to make a c/r profitable?

Check/calling doesn't seem great without a BDFD. With spades I'd like a c/call so that I can c/call a few more turns but here it just feels like its gunna be pretty obvious to him which cards improve my hand and he's going to be able to force me to fold with any decent sized bet on a bricky turn and when I just c/call flop he doesn't have to be too concerned about clubs either.

That we're having some difficulty with how to continue on what is on the face of it a pretty decent flop feels like a good argument for folding pre?

[rfgqqabc]

Seat 3: FedReserve7 (€59.19 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero (€67.51 in chips)
Seat 8: Stonecrusher (€151.56 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: Janusch12 (€66.50 in chips)
Janusch12: Post SB €0.25
FedReserve7: Post BB €0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [  ]
Hero: Raise (NF) €1.75
Stonecrusher: Raise (NF) €6.00
Janusch12: Fold
FedReserve7: Fold
Hero: Call €4.25
*** FLOP *** [ ] (Pot: €12.75)
Hero: Check
Stonecrusher: Bet €8.00

Villain is a reg on the nittier side, his 6max stats are 20/14/6% 3b. I've been running some sims and there isn't really anything that a nitty reg is getting it in with that we have more than 40% equity against, I'm giving him AKQ9 backdoor spades as his worst bet/gii hand which could well be too wide. We've got 38% equity vs that hand so we're going to have to get a reasonable number of folds to make a c/r profitable? Given his tight 3betting range he's weighted to AAxx a decent amount and we have no 4betting history so I'd expect him to always be flatting his scrappy AAxx combos. He has a pretty low cbet at 45% over 300 hands so perhaps he's checking back a lot of the AAxx combos that I need him to be bet/folding to make a c/r profitable?

Check/calling doesn't seem great without a BDFD. With spades I'd like a c/call so that I can c/call a few more turns but here it just feels like its gunna be pretty obvious to him which cards improve my hand and he's going to be able to force me to fold with any decent sized bet on a bricky turn and when I just c/call flop he doesn't have to be too concerned about clubs either.

That we're having some difficulty with how to continue on what is on the face of it a pretty decent flop feels like a good argument for folding pre?

Your analysis seems spot on and agree with it all. I think galfond open folds pre (presuming thats what you meant). Maybe folding to the only guy we are oop to when 3b is the other route, all seems close tho.

[GreekStein]

Yeah we can open this with a suit but without I would fold

[Oxford_HRV]

i'd play it this way and c/f flop

really don't see how on the face of it, this is a pretty decent flop for us?

[SuuPRlim]

yeh fold pre-flop, open OTB ofc.

Right now I think you take a card off if you really want I dont think c/c is that bad but I'd prefer to fold here.