Early Spot in PLO Tourney.

[Karabiner]

We're playing level two or three and I'm sitting with ~3k which I started with.

I find AATT hh in MP and with blinds 20/40 open to 100 which is flatted on my direct left. A big stack(~8k) is OTB and he raises to 220.

Back to me and I pot it to 880 which only the button calls.

We see a flop of K83 r. (pot is 1820)

WWYD?

[Honeybadger]

Good flop. Either pot/call the last bowl off, or bet small and call a jam (or jam the turn if he flats). Betting small is better IMO but as long as you do not second guess yourself into folding at any point then it does not really matter. Yes ofc he might have KKxx, but with an SPR of just over 1 you should not be second guessing yourself.

Flatting the 3bet is a reasonable alternative preflop.

[GreekStein]

Good flop. Either pot/call the last bowl off, or bet small and call a jam (or jam the turn if he flats). Betting small is better IMO but as long as you do not second guess yourself into folding at any point then it does not really matter. Yes ofc he might have KKxx, but with an SPR of just over 1 you should not be second guessing yourself.

Flatting the 3bet is a reasonable alternative preflop.

What c-bet size would you make?

[Derbylad]

Spot on from Stu as normal. Considering we're not folding, to more likely get stacks in 30-40% seems fine. This will either mean we get the rest in on the turn to a b/c, b/c or are opponent jams with Kxxx. I don't see any point in potting and folding out weaker holdings. If he's got KKxx then shrug it off.

[Honeybadger]

What c-bet size would you make?

As I said, it doesn't actually matter too much given the SPR. If hero decides to use a small sizing then it should be very small though, since the main reason to bet small is to very occasionally have villain spazz out and jam a hand like QQJJ because he thinks hero might fold. But this is not going to happen much of course. Against villain's KQJ9 or 6789 type hands it does not really matter whether we bet small or just pot, since villain is not folding and we are likely going to be all-in on the right side of a 60/40 race - unless villain has a pair in his hand obviously.

However potting it might actually be the best play in a tournament, even though it feels weird. Since villain's ~40% equity with 6789 or KQJ9 (or whatever) is right around the break-even equity for him to get all-in (we have a little more than pot left in effective stacks), we do not mind too much from a chip EV perspective whether he calls or folds. And since there are 'tournament life' considerations, hero might want to choose the line that generates the most folds. I don't think it is very likely that villain will fold a Kxxx hand or a 8xxx hand to a pot cbet. But he might do, people do sometimes overfold, and we kinda want him to.

Hero having TT in his hand is kind of nice though since it is sometimes going to be a blocker for villain hitting two pairs - if villain gets all-in with KQJT or 789T etc. And when this is the case we are ofc going to be better than 60/40. Which argues against just potting it, since we do not want villain to fold any of his hands that contain a T (or an Ace ldo).

But, like I said, it does not really matter too much what bet sizing strategy hero uses... as long as he does not fold lol!

[Karabiner]

Thanks for the detailed analysis which is much appreciated.

I actually did pot/call off my bowl when he shoved although I had a nasty supicion that villain might well have KKxx. He actually had AKKx which held after I turned a FD.

It seemed instinctively to be the right play even though it was so early in the tourney which was what made me wonder if I might have played it differently. I guess is just the problem of playing a super-premium hand OOP.