WSOP $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. Final: Live Update - Interactive

[snoopy1239]

looky looky

no socks!

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[snoopy1239]

And now back to business with Reese holding the slight chip lead.

I guess that hand was a few CHIPs off the ol' BLOCH

ahem

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[thetank]

If you can manufacture three allins with the chip lead with a 30% hand each time you have a 90% chance of winning at least once...

In bizzaro world perhaps.....


Your oppenent has a 70% chance of winning each hand.

Their chance of winning all three = 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7

Which is just under 35%, not 10%

[snoopy1239]

Eeeek, I've bokked him.


How are the competitors holding up, does one look more fatigued than the other?

At first it was Bloch who looked the freshest, but now, after those two double ups, he's the one that looks somewhat drained.

[El Yortle]

If you can manufacture three allins with the chip lead with a 30% hand each time you have a 90% chance of winning at least once...

Sorry if i come across as a smart-arse here, but the chances are actually 65.7%, not 90%.

The maths are: 1-(0.7^3).

Cheers.

[ariston]

with a chip lead of 6 million to 1 million you take on 2 allins as a 30/70 dog and you are likely to be now looking at a chip defecit rather than a chip lead. One event doesnt affect another in poker and if you play 2 pots as a 30/70 dog it doesnt mean you have a 60% chance of winning the tournament, all it means after you lose your first pot is that you have 5 million to 2 million and if you take on another pot as a dog you will more than likely be down to 3 million looking at your opponents 4 million. In heads up play you can only play one pot at a time and should play each pot on its merits- AB was playing fantastic heads up poker and keeping the pots small, when he has switched to big pot poker he has lost his chip lead and probably chance at the title (chip reece is a master at playing pots on his terms with the chip lead).

[ariston]

If you would like to go into a mathmatical debate we can do it in vegas as I am just about to leave for the airport- I will let you chose pure and applied or statistical I don't mind. You cannot use that formula as one event does not effect another- its like saying a coin is tossed 10 times and comes up 9 times heads, the tenth time what is the odds on it being tails? Each pot in poker is a separate event and has to be treated that way.

[Jon MW]

If you can manufacture three allins with the chip lead with a 30% hand each time you have a 90% chance of winning at least once...

Sorry if i come across as a smart-arse here, but the chances are actually 65.7%, not 90%.

The maths are: 1-(0.7^3).

Cheers.

I was going to point this out also, but you beat me to it

[LLevan]

Great updates as usual here on Blonde..................... to Snoopy n Jen for a stirling job over all 3 days of this tourney................if this is just a taster for the Main Event then us stayathomers can look forward to excellent coverage................some of you might be finding this heads up boring but personally I think its great that the structure of the event has allowed for proper poker to be played when they are heads up instead of becoming a crapshoot for the bracelet and 1st prize. The only thing possibly wrong with this tourney is why are they only playing NL Holdem on the final table even allowing for the fact that ESPN wanted it that way for viewing figures surely from a purist's point of view they should have continued playing all the games as per the 1st 2 days. On another note Jen or Snoopy do you think any deals were discussed in the breaks or are they strictly against the WSOP rules?

[thetank]

I can see the hot dog vender writing a tell-all account of dodgy final table deals at this years WSOP.

[AndrewT]

I can see the hot dog vender writing a tell-all account of dodgy final table deals at this years WSOP.

'You have the ketchup, I'll have the mustard and we play on for the onions.'

[thetank]

I was playing heads or tails.

50% chance of winning, so I double my bets if I lose.

50% + 50% + 50% + 50% so I have a 200% chance of being right at least once, surely.

Who wants to back me?

[I, Zimbra]

Excellent stuff!

I was hoping for TJ to get it together in the NL HE, but it seems it wasn't to be...

I agree that from the sound of things that Bloch has had the measure of Chip up to now, but it's so close now...

[snoopy1239]

Great updates as usual here on Blonde..................... to Snoopy n Jen for a stirling job over all 3 days of this tourney................if this is just a taster for the Main Event then us stayathomers can look forward to excellent coverage................some of you might be finding this heads up boring but personally I think its great that the structure of the event has allowed for proper poker to be played when they are heads up instead of becoming a crapshoot for the bracelet and 1st prize. The only thing possibly wrong with this tourney is why are they only playing NL Holdem on the final table even allowing for the fact that ESPN wanted it that way for viewing figures surely from a purist's point of view they should have continued playing all the games as per the 1st 2 days. On another note Jen or Snoopy do you think any deals were discussed in the breaks or are they strictly against the WSOP rules?

the Main Event may be a no go for blonde due to the lack of media access.

we'll have to wait and see, but they don't allow you to pass through the table's during the Main Event, which makes updating impossible, especially considering the layers of crowd on the rail and the sheer numbers of participants.

If we are going to undertake an update, we want it to be good one.

[I, Zimbra]

I can see the hot dog vender writing a tell-all account of dodgy final table deals at this years WSOP.

'You have the ketchup, I'll have the mustard and we play on for the onions.'