Different kind of staking

[boldie]

If you're on all 4, you're free rolling for the rest of the day. Synchronised won eaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasy

Pissed in.Now get to work on tomorrows Kelso card.

GREAT card at Kelso tomorrow...WOW! Might try to trick the Mrs into going...I'm sure she'd love watching the horses whilst standing in the pissing rain

I'll have a post up for it tonight mate.

[boldie]

Well Synchronised the only winner but it's a point profit if all backed at the same stake.

[boldie]

I've put a post up on the forum, could do with everyone replying what they want to do really.

[boldie]

First of the Boxing day Degen posts up and a few people have a PM containing it.
The weather is messing up Boxing day

[Josedinho]

Have we put the lot on Kauto?

[boldie]

Have we put the lot on Kauto?

Pretty much

[StuartHopkin]

Have we put the lot on Kauto?

Pretty much

I know its a great horse put what price should it be?

[The Camel]

ooooooooooooo now everyone know Boldie fancies Kauto, it will probably start 2/5 instead of 4/6

[StuartHopkin]

ooooooooooooo now everyone know Boldie fancies Kauto, it will probably start 2/5 instead of 4/6

Lol

I dont think you realise the size of my bets Keith! They sometimes have 3 figures and everything!

Tomorrow could be an expensive all dayer. I know how to bet, but knowing if something is the right price or not it not my forte! If i was to have a couple of hundred on it to pay for the beers would it be shrewd or stupid?

Sure Boldie will love me asking you a question on his thread! 

Happy Xmas mate.

[The Camel]

ooooooooooooo now everyone know Boldie fancies Kauto, it will probably start 2/5 instead of 4/6

Lol

I dont think you realise the size of my bets Keith! They sometimes have 3 figures and everything!

Tomorrow could be an expensive all dayer. I know how to bet, but knowing if something is the right price or not it not my forte! If i was to have a couple of hundred on it to pay for the beers would it be shrewd or stupid?

Sure Boldie will love me asking you a question on his thread!  

Happy Xmas mate.

Stu,

Finding value bets in horse racing is probably the most difficult task of all sports. 100 times more difficult than football, darts, snooker or nfl.

The best way to start is to take a race where you fancy one. Price up all the other horses at prices you would be prepared to lay to real money, then work out the % chance each horse has got according to your price and the % left is the true price of the horse you fancy.

For the KG it could be:

8/1 Imperial Commander (11%)
14/1 Madison de B (7%)
20/1 Deep Purple (5%)
20/1 Barbers Shop (5%)
33/1 Nacarat (3%)
33/1 Albertas Run (3%)
50/1 Tartak (2%)
66/1 Master Medic (1.5%)
100/1 Any Other (1%)

That makes 38.5%

So you have 61.5% for Kauto Star. Which is approx 8/13. If you can beat 8/13 it's a value bet, if its alot shorter (Mayber 1/2 or worse) it's a value lay.

In practice, you are unlikely to get much value in races with a strong ante post market because all the value is hoovered up early doors.

The best bets on the day of big races are when something drfts badly.

Happy Christmas to you too (and Boldie)

[EvilPie]

ooooooooooooo now everyone know Boldie fancies Kauto, it will probably start 2/5 instead of 4/6

Lol

I dont think you realise the size of my bets Keith! They sometimes have 3 figures and everything!

Tomorrow could be an expensive all dayer. I know how to bet, but knowing if something is the right price or not it not my forte! If i was to have a couple of hundred on it to pay for the beers would it be shrewd or stupid?

Sure Boldie will love me asking you a question on his thread!  

Happy Xmas mate.

Stu,

Finding value bets in horse racing is probably the most difficult task of all sports. 100 times more difficult than football, darts, snooker or nfl.

The best way to start is to take a race where you fancy one. Price up all the other horses at prices you would be prepared to lay to real money, then work out the % chance each horse has got according to your price and the % left is the true price of the horse you fancy.

For the KG it could be:

8/1 Imperial Commander (11%)
14/1 Madison de B (7%)
20/1 Deep Purple (5%)
20/1 Barbers Shop (5%)
33/1 Nacarat (3%)
33/1 Albertas Run (3%)
50/1 Tartak (2%)
66/1 Master Medic (1.5%)
100/1 Any Other (1%)

That makes 38.5%

So you have 61.5% for Kauto Star. Which is approx 8/13. If you can beat 8/13 it's a value bet, if its alot shorter (Mayber 1/2 or worse) it's a value lay.

In practice, you are unlikely to get much value in races with a strong ante post market because all the value is hoovered up early doors.

The best bets on the day of big races are when something drfts badly.

Happy Christmas to you too (and Boldie)

Just use a pin.

FYP

[The Camel]

ooooooooooooo now everyone know Boldie fancies Kauto, it will probably start 2/5 instead of 4/6

Lol

I dont think you realise the size of my bets Keith! They sometimes have 3 figures and everything!

Tomorrow could be an expensive all dayer. I know how to bet, but knowing if something is the right price or not it not my forte! If i was to have a couple of hundred on it to pay for the beers would it be shrewd or stupid?

Sure Boldie will love me asking you a question on his thread!  

Happy Xmas mate.

Stu,

Finding value bets in horse racing is probably the most difficult task of all sports. 100 times more difficult than football, darts, snooker or nfl.

The best way to start is to take a race where you fancy one. Price up all the other horses at prices you would be prepared to lay to real money, then work out the % chance each horse has got according to your price and the % left is the true price of the horse you fancy.

For the KG it could be:

8/1 Imperial Commander (11%)
14/1 Madison de B (7%)
20/1 Deep Purple (5%)
20/1 Barbers Shop (5%)
33/1 Nacarat (3%)
33/1 Albertas Run (3%)
50/1 Tartak (2%)
66/1 Master Medic (1.5%)
100/1 Any Other (1%)

That makes 38.5%

So you have 61.5% for Kauto Star. Which is approx 8/13. If you can beat 8/13 it's a value bet, if its alot shorter (Mayber 1/2 or worse) it's a value lay.

In practice, you are unlikely to get much value in races with a strong ante post market because all the value is hoovered up early doors.

The best bets on the day of big races are when something drfts badly.

Happy Christmas to you too (and Boldie)

Just use a pin.

FYP

True.

You could go with the Boldie method.

[boldie]

Kauto 31-50 on betfair..doubt you'll get bigger than that at any bookies tomorrow TBF.
Sportingbet is going 8-13 (which is bookies best price available ATM) and gives you a faller refund of up to £50 should he fall (which is just about the only way he gets beat IMO)

Degen part deux up for tomorrow; Wincanton seems to be going ahead.

[Josedinho]

ooooooooooooo now everyone know Boldie fancies Kauto, it will probably start 2/5 instead of 4/6

8/15 instead of 8/13. Shows why boldie can't make his tips public.
Nice to win the world though Boldie.

[boldie]

WOW @ Kauto. Immense performance.

Anyways, degen post for tomorrow is up and a bet for tomorrow is up as well.