Stocks and Shares Tips

[Woodsey]

BP has risen a lot in the last couple of days. Was going to wait for £4.50 before I sold but just got out at £4.34 for a nice £550 profit. My original £500 is now up to £2400

[Woodsey]

Brazil seems to be the economy to be watching at the moment. Anyone investigated any companies over there to invest in?

Have decided to spread bet Brazil's stock market as a whole rather than individual companies. Its been doing well even during recession and can only really benefit when the worldwide economy turns around.

Its called the IBOVESPA stock exchange. I'm sure there are funds out there to invest in if people don't want to spread it like me, although I haven't investigated that.

[Woodsey]

Some notes from a guy that attended the RKH share holder meeting today, posted on the iii website.



Firstly, I¡¦ve only seen a few snippets from this bb since I got back from the AGM but it¡¦s amazing how so many people that were at the AGM hearing the same thing, can translate it in so many different ways! This is my take on the proceedings. I neither aim to ramp up or down what I¡¦ve heard, but I¡¦m documenting it how I heard it. People who weren¡¦t there will unfortunately have to decide which reports to believe or not believe! ƒº

Gibson Hall was a good venue. Dr Pierre Jungels commented how last year literally only 4 shareholders turned up, so it¡¦s amazing how much things can change in a year!

The presentation was in two main parts. The first by Dr Pierre Jungels and the second by Mr Sam Moody. I was impressed by both presenters but it was very clear to me Dr Pierre Jungels has a deep-rooted understanding of this business, and at times, he was struggling to contain his excitement about the potential of Rockhopper.

There are a number of changes at board level but I¡¦m assuming that has all been covered off by the RNS so I won¡¦t go into that.

The key points that I picked up on were as follows:

1)   The whole team are very excited by Sealion. Dr Pierre Jungels commented that in the unlikely event that Sealion was a stand-alone discovery, it would still be commercial. Even at ¡§considerably lower oil prices¡¨.
2)   New CPR in progress to be released anytime before the end of the year. From the tone, ¡§my take¡¨ on that was that we¡¦ll find out anytime within the next 2 ¡V 4 weeks. The board believes there is ¡§SERIOUS UPSIDE POTENTIAL¡¨ to the existing figures.
3)   Currently in discussions about carrying out more seismics on the area south of Sealion and north of Rachel.
4)   They were surprisingly upbeat about Ernest. I¡¦d more or less written that one off, but they said that work was on-going to analyse the results of Ernest, and that on the basis that Ernest contained a high quality reservoir, they think that area of the basin is far from dead.
5)   Dr Pierre Jungels emphasised a couple of times the significance of the fact that every sand encountered in Sealion was charged with oil and that despite drilling 217m into Sealion, no water contact had been found. They really are excited by that.
6)   When asked about future risks, they saw both the geological and the political risks as being ¡§low¡¨ which I found interesting. The big risk to them was if there was another downturn in the financial world as that would then make the process of securing future funding significantly harder.
7)   They again confirmed that the flow test (whilst successful) did not go quite to plan. Only two of the guns fired and they also didn¡¦t have the necessary equipment to carry out a proper test. That will be addressed during future flow tests on other drills. They would see the eventual flow rate in a production environment being well in excess of the 4000 bopd that has been specified thus far.
   All funding options are currently being considered. Nothing has been finalised. But again it was stressed that future funding would be achieved with the ¡§shareholders best interests in mind¡¨.
9)   There was a question on whether they would eventually try to farm-in a major, sell-out, or go to production. They said all options were still open, but from the tone, it still sounds ¡§to me¡¨ like they would like to take this to production. It doesn¡¦t at all sound to me like they are only in this to make a quick buck and then to run.
10)   There are still two options not yet secured for the OG as part of the current campaign. DES have first refusal on those options but Sam was keen to stress that he believed that if RKH wanted one of those options, they would be able to successfully negotiate that with DES. Personally, it sounded to ¡§me¡¨ that one of the appraisals will be done sooner rather than later.
11)   There was a question about the gas discovery but it was made clear that the oil was their priority and that there would have to be a minimum of 5tcf to make the gas commercial. This was clearly a low priority to the board.
12)   No plans to join FTSE until after the appraisals as that would be the optimum time to join.

In summary, I was very glad to have attended the AGM and I came away feeling extremely positive about the future. When I look to invest in a share I look for stocks with the lowest risk combined with the highest potential. It¡¦s obviously a balancing act but I seriously can¡¦t see another stock out there that has such huge potential gains, combined with the ¡§relatively¡¨ low risk. Of course there are still risks, but the share is under-pinned by Sealion, and I think once the new CPR comes out, we¡¦ll all be very pleasantly surprised by exactly how big a beast it really is!

I¡¦m in this for the long term, and I can¡¦t wait to watch this story unfold!

[Doobs]

Bump

To general disinterest here, Rockhopper announced a rights issue the other week.  But then made a statement today which pretty much said that they may have been getting ahead of themselves with previous announcements and dropped pretty severely early on.  Desire seemed to hold pretty firm for much of the day then dropped quite severely late on.

For those who think I got away with it, I still have a holding in Soco, which hasn't had the best of weeks either.

[Woodsey]

FML, done my fking coconuts with rockhopper in the last few days. Price will recover, but there is lots of panic selling going on for sure that hasn't helped the price, sigh...........

[paulhouk03]

Sigh

[Woodsey]

Sigh

 

[Doobs]

I can't see my rebuying.

It isn't because of the price/prospects it is because the events over the last 3 days stunk a bit.

As I noted in my last post, the price dropped rapidly on Wednesday late on.  It was weird as Rockhopper's price had plunged early, and Desire's price had barely reacted.  On Thursday the plunge continued, well in excess of anything that happened at Rockhopper.  So by Thursday evening Desire has dropped from 165p to 108p a share. Thursday's dealing volume was about 5 times higher than normal.  On Friday morning Desire announces it has a duster.   

Now to me it is absolutely clear that some people were dealing on this news from at least Wednesday afternoon.  I don't think you can ever stop leaks, but once it was clear this had happened, then the company had a duty to make an announcement. They should have made this announcement late on Wednesday or before the market opened on Thursday.

As a result of this, I can have absolutely no confidence the board will ever treat me fairly in the future, and they will have to go elsewhere for any more cash for drilling.

I have no position in Desire Petroleum.

[mondatoo]

Online Stocks and Shares is rigged.

[StuartHopkin]

Super mother fucking sigh

[jack2off]

On paper, I lost 53k weds - Fri, however, speaking to the guy who got me into RKH/DES, lost 1.5m as a paper loss over the same period!! He is not worried!! its only a loss if you sell!! however, we're both in a good position that we purchased our shares at such a low price, even these prices gives a hefty return!! however, I wont be selling a share! im in for the duration of the campaign not just a couple of wells.

Lots of confidence flying round still, RKH will fluctuate, they have announced a 200m share placing this evening going out to institutions, that pretty much sures them up!! people panic selling and Market Movers manipulating the price to kick in stops!

I never have stops for this reason, and DES/RKH has not changed for me!!

GL anyone in and n1 to those who took a profit!!

[skolsuper]

On paper, I lost 53k weds - Fri, however, speaking to the guy who got me into RKH/DES, lost 1.5m as a paper loss over the same period!! He is not worried!! its only a loss if you sell!! however, we're both in a good position that we purchased our shares at such a low price, even these prices gives a hefty return!! however, I wont be selling a share! im in for the duration of the campaign not just a couple of wells.

Lots of confidence flying round still, RKH will fluctuate, they have announced a 200m share placing this evening going out to institutions, that pretty much sures them up!! people panic selling and Market Movers manipulating the price to kick in stops!

I never have stops for this reason, and DES/RKH has not changed for me!!

GL anyone in and n1 to those who took a profit!!

Quelle surprise.

Sorry to be rude after you've taken the time to post a lot of free advice on this thread, but I have to say when I first got into 'stocks and shares' I was warned to be wary of people that talk like you and to try and find people that talk like Doobs. A thought experiment for you jack2off:

You have a nugget of pure gold that weighs 36.5g (worth approximately £1000 at today's price).

Scenario a) You bought it for £300 5 years ago. How much is it worth now?*

Scenario b) You bought it for £2000 6 months ago. How much is it worth now?*

A foolish gold trader offers to buy your nugget for £1100. Should you sell it to him? What about in scenario a)? And b)?

*I am aware that these prices are not historically accurate. Play along, it doesn't affect the question.

I would be extremely happy if you could furnish me with an answer that manages to convince me that price and value are exactly the same thing, and that the price you bought something at should logically affect the value you attach to it.

[EvilPie]

Sell the gold to the fool and buy another one.

Lock up the £100 of the foolish trader and then risk it going up to £2k again whether you are in scenario a or b.

If you're in scenario b it owes you a grand so you can't possibly sell.

If you're in scenario a you've written off the £300 so you might as well wait until it goes back up to £2k like it was 6 months ago.

It's just a gamble like any other. When do you walk away from a roulette wheel? If you start with a grand and win 10k but at one stage were up 12k should you have walked away then? Probably yes but then with that attitude you'd never have got to 12k in the first place because you'd have cashed out at 2k or never played in the first place.

Keep gambling Jack2.

Stick to investing in football traders Mr Keys. That's where the real easy money lies

[jack2off]

I totally understand what you're saying! and in most cases you have a point and when it comes to investments, I don't gamble and in fact have done very well from this.

But im not talking about other investments, someone (I think you) mentioned before about me having a love affair with this share, the fact is I do and for very good reason. This was a pure gamble for me, cost me a few thousand to get in, as it stands I'm over 10x in profit even with the 50k loss, and its not gone until I sell, shares fluctuate, especially AIM invested shares that involve Oil Exploration. Having stop losses on a company that is going to drill for oil, with rumours, rampers, de rampers, and corrupt market makers!!

Now, I have a lot of other shares, some of which I have stops on, because im nicely in profit so have tied that in regardless, maybe I should have explained that. Its DES and RKH I dont have stops on and the reason for this is because of what i mentioned above. Especially with Market Movers/Makers and clever rampers, will manipulate the share price on a company such as DES, to make people panic sell. As an example, a few months ago, Rockhopper crashed at 12pm, manipulators caused a panic, caused MMs to drop the price by 70%, the price eventually snow balled down as stop losses kicked in (old stops that hadn't been removed before the rise) and this all happened when Personal investors were at lunch between 12-2, therefore the rogues snapped up a load of cheap shares, Rockhopper was forced to announce that there was no reason for the price drop, and the share priced ended up back as it started.

Desire, £1.30 drill a dry well, price drops to 50p, RKH hit desire ends up at 1.74 before they've put another drill in the ground, they announce they hit a duster (which actually isnt definitely a duster as they're sidetracking on the same well) price drops to 50p, ends today at 90p. Prob will end the week at £1. So fluctuations on this share is too risky to put a stop on. I've sliced off little bits here and there when xfering my holdings from RKH to Des and back again.

I dont ramp or de ramp shares and Im definitely not one of those people you're referring to! I don't post on share forums. I posted here generally to give people a tip on this share if they wanted a punt. Like anything, its a punt, don't risk what you cant afford to lose but....the upside of this share is amazing if it comes off!

Anyone who is sensible, and read this post, would have make a nice profit if they'd sold a couple of weeks ago after the initial post.

So I totally see your point and don't usually gamble this much, but what I have in with these two companies, Im prepared to ride the ups and downs as I think it will end up a lot higher than it is today and I have good reason to believe it!! (Rochopper was 14p less than a year ago! and will end up within a year possibly £8-£9?) now that's a return!!

Good point though!

[rex008]

I totally understand what you're saying! and in most cases you have a point and when it comes to investments, I don't gamble and in fact have done very well from this.

But im not talking about other investments, someone (I think you) mentioned before about me having a love affair with this share, the fact is I do and for very good reason. This was a pure gamble for me, cost me a few thousand to get in, as it stands I'm over 10x in profit even with the 50k loss, and its not gone until I sell, shares fluctuate, especially AIM invested shares that involve Oil Exploration. Having stop losses on a company that is going to drill for oil, with rumours, rampers, de rampers, and corrupt market makers!!

Sorry, got to call bullshit on that one. DES current price = 92p, the only time it's been below 9.2p was on the week following 9/11, and a few days in the summer of 2003 (yahoo finance chart). When did you buy and at what price? Rockhopper chart only seems to go back 18 months, but again, never been below 1/10 of current price. 52 week low on Rockhopper is 31p, according to financial data on both yahoo and google. Where did the 14p come from?

And if you lost 53k on paper last week, your 10x profit is also on paper.

Your mate doesn't happen to work in a boiler room does he?