I guess my problem with this most of this thread seems a little frothy.
This isn't a coin flip with 20p if you get tails and £20 if you get heads.
A better anology is putting someone in the WSOP main event. Most of the time you'll end up with zero (or maybe close to zero). One time in ten or maybe 1 in 5 if you back well, you'll get something, but much of the time it may not be much. Only a small proportion of the time will you be flying out to Vegas in November with your pockets full to bursting. If I was to buy companies like this, you'd be better buying a basket, and not doing the all the eggs in one basket thing. For instance I own shares in Shell, BP, Soco and Aminex. The latter two holdings are my riskier oil companies and I hold smaller proportions of them than I do in BP and Shell. To use another bad poker analogy I guess I am doing the equivalent of playing $1/$2 with my $10K, rather than going for the big spin up. I have no problem with spin ups, so long as the person doing it knows they are spinning up ofc.
As an aside, the chance of a succesful drill at Liz well is 17% on the research that I assume Desire paid for and not the 50% recently claimed.
http://www.desireplc.co.uk/pdfs/Desire_CPR_Final_Report.pdf. It is on page 2. And that 17% isn't the chance of getting a monster field, it is the chance of getting one barely commerical.
And I am not entirely convinced that 17% is a low estimate. You don't usually pay people to come up with bad stories for your company.
And you can be pretty sure they think this is their best prospect. It has the highest chance of success and an expected decent size if succesful..
And if I ever call somebody a deramper or post that any company I own has a low price bcause of "shorters" you can shoot me.
Anyway best not carry this on too long, I don't want to turn up at a GUKPT and have a bunch of angry poker players giving me a load of grief because they missed out on the chance to make £200K. And that is always a possibility, albeit probably a small one. And I used to waste too much of my life on internet share boards and I don't want to start that again!
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