Bet folding trips in DTD 6max -River line check pls

[pleno1]

if he never bluffs when checked too and doesnt call with a 10 then c/f would be my line.

[SuuPRlim]

if he never bluffs when checked too and doesnt call with a 10 then c/f would be my line.

I agree. But does he really never call with a 10? seems like its worth a bet to me.

[GreekStein]

Think bet/fold is optimal line. Also not betting big

[skolsuper]

From the OP it looks like we're against "old weaktight guy in seat 4" right? If so, check/fold is by far the best line. Also, fold pre.

[SuuPRlim]

From the OP it looks like we're against "old weaktight guy in seat 4" right? If so, check/fold is by far the best line. Also, fold pre.

Is he not described as "Old loose passive" ?

+1 on folding pre, although I would probs always call whilst knowing I should fold, lol

[cambridgealex]

+1 on folding pre, although I would probs always call whilst knowing I should fold, lol

did you misread our hand? jack 9 blueeeeeeeeeeeee!

[cambridgealex]

From the OP it looks like we're against "old weaktight guy in seat 4" right? If so, check/fold is by far the best line. Also, fold pre.

in all seriousness, really fold pre? 6max vs 3.25x. We are in small blind and can be pretty sure BB and limper will call too. 225 into pot of 325x3 + 100 = 1075. everyone with about 10k chips. Sure we're oop but I wouldn't ever fold suited connectors/ one gappers in this spot. Would you be folding 45s or 68s? is it because we're often dominated? JTs?

[skolsuper]

From the OP it looks like we're against "old weaktight guy in seat 4" right? If so, check/fold is by far the best line. Also, fold pre.

in all seriousness, really fold pre? 6max vs 3.25x. We are in small blind and can be pretty sure BB and limper will call too. 225 into pot of 325x3 + 100 = 1075. everyone with about 10k chips. Sure we're oop but I wouldn't ever fold suited connectors/ one gappers in this spot. Would you be folding 45s or 68s? is it because we're often dominated? JTs?

Our position is abs terrible, 1st to act of 4 on the flop, then if the PFR cbets we're 1st of 3 facing that decision. We flop top pair but leading out overreps this and will leave us in even tougher spots than the one we're in. It's just not gonna be possible to get value when we hit unless we cooler someone, so yes J9s is an easy fold, as is 68s. 45s is closer (but still a fold) and JTs I would call, but would not be thrilled about it.

[SuuPRlim]

From the OP it looks like we're against "old weaktight guy in seat 4" right? If so, check/fold is by far the best line. Also, fold pre.

in all seriousness, really fold pre? 6max vs 3.25x. We are in small blind and can be pretty sure BB and limper will call too. 225 into pot of 325x3 + 100 = 1075. everyone with about 10k chips. Sure we're oop but I wouldn't ever fold suited connectors/ one gappers in this spot. Would you be folding 45s or 68s? is it because we're often dominated? JTs?

Ok. I gave each player a generous range and randomly selected a hand from that range for this example (franky's obv the tightest and BB the widest).

Hold'em Simulation ?
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Jd9d   21.31%   224,335   15,193
KhJc   21.07%   221,795   15,193
AsQs   33.05%   358,378   2,188
5s5c   24.57%   266,307   2,188

Given this exact example you have 21% equity and you're pot equity is 25% at current assuming BB is peeling. Then coupled with the potential for the BB to have limped to 3bet makes pre-flop too loose imo.

with only a 4% deficit pre flop you could justify a call if you're gonna win a big pot if make smash the flop.



But you see we flop suitable equity such a small % of the time, plus we have no reason to think we're gaurenteed to stack someone without really coolering them, as people are generally more cautious in multi-way pots.

I know this example is likely to change drastically with different cards but I pulled them at random and I think it gives a decent idea of the reasons why you will struggle to show a profit peeling OOP here.

[cambridgealex]

From the OP it looks like we're against "old weaktight guy in seat 4" right? If so, check/fold is by far the best line. Also, fold pre.

in all seriousness, really fold pre? 6max vs 3.25x. We are in small blind and can be pretty sure BB and limper will call too. 225 into pot of 325x3 + 100 = 1075. everyone with about 10k chips. Sure we're oop but I wouldn't ever fold suited connectors/ one gappers in this spot. Would you be folding 45s or 68s? is it because we're often dominated? JTs?

Ok. I gave each player a generous range and randomly selected a hand from that range for this example (franky's obv the tightest and BB the widest).

Hold'em Simulation ?
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
Jd9d   21.31%   224,335   15,193
KhJc   21.07%   221,795   15,193
AsQs   33.05%   358,378   2,188
5s5c   24.57%   266,307   2,188

Given this exact example you have 21% equity and you're pot equity is 25% at current assuming BB is peeling. Then coupled with the potential for the BB to have limped to 3bet makes pre-flop too loose imo.

with only a 4% deficit pre flop you could justify a call if you're gonna win a big pot if make smash the flop.



But you see we flop suitable equity such a small % of the time, plus we have no reason to think we're gaurenteed to stack someone without really coolering them, as people are generally more cautious in multi-way pots.

I know this example is likely to change drastically with different cards but I pulled them at random and I think it gives a decent idea of the reasons why you will struggle to show a profit peeling OOP here.

end of discussion

[skolsuper]

Fml, 2 replies saying the same thing and mine has the least maths in it. I'm officially old school

[railtard1]

100000000000% fold pre (and u have the prettiest hand in the deck to me.)

[DMorgan]

Need stack sizes to be sure but almost certainly a fold pre, frankie isn't doing this light

I read the OP as it was the BB we're playing against on the river not the old loose passive guy. In that case definitely betting river, this is exactly the type of board that you'll get looked up on often by stationy non-believer live players.

Also lildave is my hero

[EvilPie]

We need Dubai in this thread to advise that we raise pre and win the pot by outplaying our oppos on a    board.

[stato_1]

Fold pre, bet/fold now. Don't think he's folding a T or bluff raising like ever. Also probs peels no end of Jxs pre in multiway pots.