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Poker Hand Analysis
Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
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Topic: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet? (Read 6865 times)
doglayer
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #15 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:10:31 PM »
Whether its £2k or £200 doesnt matter because its assumed you are rolled to play the game. Therefore stacking off 1 buy in with a flopped flush i would imagine is pretty standard and where i am from you just get your hand in your pocket and reload if its a cooler.
If he has any club 8 or bigger in his hand with no other club then you are a 2/5 shot.
If he has two pair on the flop you are a 1/5 shot.
If he has a set you are a 1/2 shot.
If he has a made flush bigger than yours you are fecked.
If he has a smaller flush you are weighed in.
Given the combos of hands he could have if u dont want to invest 1 buyin into this spot asap (ie get it in on the flop) then i will stand by my initial statement that you are scared of the money involved and/or you should get another hobby because you are too risk averse. FWIW i would make him having a set here as a strong fav out of all the options.
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DMorgan
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #16 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:16:02 PM »
As he is never bluffing and never folding - our equity vs QQ, 55, A5, Q5 and all flushes:
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.697% 36.70% 00.00% 16712 0.00 { 7c4c }
Hand 1: 63.303% 63.30% 00.00% 28828 0.00 { QQ, 55, A5s, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc6c, Kc3c, Kc2c, Q5s, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc6c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc6c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c6c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c6c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 3c2c, A5o }
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Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
skolsuper
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #17 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:20:29 PM »
Quote from: DMorgan on February 17, 2011, 03:16:02 PM
As he is never bluffing and never folding - our equity vs QQ, 55, A5, Q5 and all flushes:
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.697% 36.70% 00.00% 16712 0.00 { 7c4c }
Hand 1: 63.303% 63.30% 00.00% 28828 0.00 { QQ, 55, A5s, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc6c, Kc3c, Kc2c, Q5s, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc6c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc6c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c6c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c6c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 3c2c, A5o }
And we are putting in 200 to win 225, easy fold.
edit, misread thought we had 215 for some reason. Odds are even worse than that.
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cambridgealex
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #18 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:20:57 PM »
Quote from: doglayer on February 17, 2011, 03:10:31 PM
Whether its £2k or £200 doesnt matter because its assumed you are rolled to play the game. Therefore stacking off 1 buy in with a flopped flush i would imagine is pretty standard and where i am from you just get your hand in your pocket and reload if its a cooler.
If he has any club 8 or bigger in his hand with no other club then you are a 2/5 shot.
If he has two pair on the flop you are a 1/5 shot.
If he has a set you are a 1/2 shot.
If he has a made flush bigger than yours you are fecked.
If he has a smaller flush you are weighed in.
Given the combos of hands he could have if u dont want to invest 1 buyin into this spot asap (ie get it in on the flop) then i will stand by my initial statement that you are scared of the money involved and/or you should get another hobby because you are too risk averse. FWIW i would make him having a set here as a strong fav out of all the options.
its 250bbs. so thats 2.5 not 1buyin. if u dont think this makes a difference then w/e. why would him having a set be the most likely? theres only 55?! he raises AA and QQ pre. loads more combos or 2pair and flushes. why on earth would a set be the most likely?
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doglayer
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #19 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:22:08 PM »
So in the worst possible case spot where you rule out him a) folding b) having the nut flush draw c) or him having ak/aq/aj you are still a 7/4 shot to win the hand in the WORST possible case scenario. Assuming a,b and c cant happen are comical imo but to rule all 3 out and you are still a 7/4 shot just shows what an instant gamble this is. Maybe you should grow some balls and get the money in asap.
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cambridgealex
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #20 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:26:34 PM »
Quote from: doglayer on February 17, 2011, 03:22:08 PM
So in the worst possible case spot where you rule out him a) folding b) having the nut flush draw c) or him having ak/aq/aj you are still a 7/4 shot to win the hand in the WORST possible case scenario. Assuming a,b and c cant happen are comical imo but to rule all 3 out and you are still a 7/4 shot just shows what an instant gamble this is. Maybe you should grow some balls and get the money in asap.
yup i would happily rule out all of those options vs this guy. he's never folding and he doesnt 3b NFD or AK, AQ etc, he just calls.
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cambridgealex
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #21 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:27:07 PM »
Quote from: skolsuper on February 17, 2011, 03:20:29 PM
Quote from: DMorgan on February 17, 2011, 03:16:02 PM
As he is never bluffing and never folding - our equity vs QQ, 55, A5, Q5 and all flushes:
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.697% 36.70% 00.00% 16712 0.00 { 7c4c }
Hand 1: 63.303% 63.30% 00.00% 28828 0.00 { QQ, 55, A5s, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc6c, Kc3c, Kc2c, Q5s, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc6c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc6c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c6c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c6c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 3c2c, A5o }
And we are putting in 200 to win 225, easy fold.
edit, misread thought we had 215 for some reason. Odds are even worse than that.
so would you just fold when he makes it 35?
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doglayer
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #22 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:28:10 PM »
Also dont you think its highly unlikely he has the nut flush flopped why would he scare 2 punters out of the pot on the flop by making it £35. Run the stats taking out the king high flopped flush hands and see what the price your hand is good now. I would be a big price he has flopped the nut flush playing the hand like this.
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skolsuper
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #23 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:29:02 PM »
Quote from: cambridgealex on February 17, 2011, 03:27:07 PM
Quote from: skolsuper on February 17, 2011, 03:20:29 PM
Quote from: DMorgan on February 17, 2011, 03:16:02 PM
As he is never bluffing and never folding - our equity vs QQ, 55, A5, Q5 and all flushes:
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.697% 36.70% 00.00% 16712 0.00 { 7c4c }
Hand 1: 63.303% 63.30% 00.00% 28828 0.00 { QQ, 55, A5s, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc6c, Kc3c, Kc2c, Q5s, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc6c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc6c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c6c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c6c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 3c2c, A5o }
And we are putting in 200 to win 225, easy fold.
edit, misread thought we had 215 for some reason. Odds are even worse than that.
so would you just fold when he makes it 35?
Yep.
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doglayer
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #24 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:30:15 PM »
Do you fold your flopped flush face up for £35 as well to add comedy value to the hand for the table??
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pleno1
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #25 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:34:23 PM »
It' £15 more against this guy who is from a different planet. I peel the £15 for sure. He will give off so much on the turn with his bet sizing/physical tell, so I will never feel like we are being exploited. We're getting close to 4-1 on the flop cawl.
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
skolsuper
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #26 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:42:36 PM »
Quote from: pleno1 on February 17, 2011, 03:34:23 PM
It' £15 more against this guy who is from a different planet. I peel the £15 for sure. He will give off so much on the turn with his bet sizing/physical tell, so I will never feel like we are being exploited. We're getting close to 4-1 on the flop cawl.
Our hand isn't going to get any stronger and if he's as clueless as you're saying then he isn't ever going to slow down, our odds at this point are irrelevant. As for getting a read, if he doesn't know that he's bluffing with weaker hands than ours then we're going to get the same read when he has Q5 as when he has KJcc, namely "OMGOMGOMG I FLOPPED THE NUTSSSSS"
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cambridgealex
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #27 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:43:05 PM »
Quote from: doglayer on February 17, 2011, 03:28:10 PM
Also dont you think its highly unlikely he has the nut flush flopped why would he scare 2 punters out of the pot on the flop by making it £35. Run the stats taking out the king high flopped flush hands and see what the price your hand is good now. I would be a big price he has flopped the nut flush playing the hand like this.
he doesnt think like that. he is level 1 thinking. if he has the nuts he will raise. if he is drawing to the nuts he will call. end of story.
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doglayer
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #28 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:45:20 PM »
agree with skol flat calling is the worse move because the hand cant improve and if u flat his raise on the flop surely u are just check calling to the river unless the miracle 4 flush comes on the turn to save you. ie stacking off bar the change so you might as well get it in first surely?
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doglayer
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Re: Flopped 7high flush, response to cold 3bet?
«
Reply #29 on:
February 17, 2011, 03:47:44 PM »
do 'level 1' thinking players really 4 bet the flopped nuts to scare off 2 players? I assume by level 1 players you mean donks? Virtually every shit player i have ever played would flat call in that spot 3 handed. Even shit players know when they cant get beat (obv they can with a paired board but level 1 players dont think like that) and dont scare fellow players off.
«
Last Edit: February 17, 2011, 03:53:19 PM by doglayer
»
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