Diary of a professional punter

[Bongo]

Not sure I like the betting patterns on this 430.......looks like Veitch may be up to something but I can't quite figure it out.  Very weird but I just don't trust the stable.

Could you expand on this for those of us that would find an explanation fascinating but really have no clue about the subject?

[redarmi]

My gut feeling is that they have tried to send the market the wrong way and are going to lump on somethign late but it is very weird.  Half an hour before the race there was about 10k waiting to back Cheylesmore and then it suddenly was taken down and drifted out to 10-1.  Everyone knows Williams is PV's stable so was it a false lead?  26k of a total of 76k matched on Cheylesmore which is a massive amount for a 10/1 shot.  I know some smart guys like the horse but they aren't info punters.

[redarmi]

Obiter Dicta maybe the 'right' horse???

Or Aviso??

[typhoon13]

EASY

[redarmi]

LOL WTF do i know.....Cheylesmore hacks up at nearly double the price I bet!!!!

[nosey-p]

£10 Vitam @ 6.0 betfair 400 Brighton
£15 Cheylesmore @ 7.4 430 Brighton

Get In  

[redsimon]

LOL WTF do i know.....Cheylesmore hacks up at nearly double the price I bet!!!!

When the price drifts out from the one you've taken do you press up the bet as its now even bigger than your "value" odds?

[redarmi]

Normally I would although more so on sport and football than racing.  I do think you should factor price moves into your prices though because markets tend to move for a reason and sometimes you don't know what that is so I tend to make an adjustment to my price too.  Sometimes if I just don't understand what is going on I leave it....I did once do an analysis of my asian handicap bets which were against moves and my roi was smaller but they were still profitable.

[Horneris]

LOL WTF do i know.....Cheylesmore hacks up at nearly double the price I bet!!!!

When the price drifts out from the one you've taken do you press up the bet as its now even bigger than your "value" odds?

I'm gona field this one too coz its an interesting one.

In the past this was definitely the +ev thing to do but nowadays the market (largely coz of the exchanges and technological advances) is too wise to make it worthwhile in the long term. Now I think the opposite in a way is almost worth doing, when you fancy a horse and its price is contracting to get further and further involved if you still think its somewhere near reasonable value.

In Championship Football I'll still do it because I'll believe I'm right and the market is wrong at times (for example when Derby drifted out from 2.6 to 3.8 at home a few weeks ago which I thought was massively wrong with the market over-reacting on a huge scale to Millwall's new signings and general ability) just because you can have the confidence that you have pretty much all the information available to you that you need to have to judge the market correctly.

In racing you often don't know things like how the horse is behaving at the track, if all is well with the horse/stable at home and many other factors.

[redarmi]

layed £15 at Evens SA to get 140 or More runs Betfair

[redarmi]

had another £15 under 140.5 runs @ Evens cricketbetlive

..........just before those two fours.....fml

[Graham C]

£15 Cheylesmore @ 7.4 430 Brighton

Nice, thank you  

[redarmi]

£40 South Africa @ 2.10 Betfair

[redarmi]

I don't really want to get involved further in this cricket match but I think SA are superb value at 2.40 or so here.  145 or so is probably an okay score on this pitch especially if they can get David Warner out early.

[Snowball]

I don't really want to get involved further in this cricket match but I think SA are superb value at 2.40 or so here.  145 or so is probably an okay score on this pitch especially if they can get David Warner out early.

and their he goes, all the way down to 1.8 now