Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Is the correct procedure in this spot to apologise?

Chompy - the new Eso Kral?

Chomps stuff without wanting to kiss his arse should be snap max stuff every time. He is a low volume high margin punter like the old school did when the game was easy.  Can't remember the last time I didn't have the max on whatever he put up. He takes a lot of tounge in cheek Luton banter on here but , in all seriousness, we
should be having the max on everything he puts up.

I await the chompy fan club gags. The same doesn't apply to eso he is a run good luck box!

I never quite know if I've whooshed others, or them me......

I need to be clear though, I only diss Chomps because he is a very good, & special, mate. He has held my hand in betting matters a great deal, & we do a lot of under the radar stuff together. When he says I should bet, I bet, no questions asked. It's going well, too, I'm less than £17,000 down. He tells me this is "variance, yo". 

I buy a big lump of his poker action, too. I usually have 30%. As, I gather, do 5 others.

We settle up AFTER the event. When he goes to Vegas, I don't even know what he is playing, we just agree an approx total sum for the trip, & I leave him to it. He sends me a PM daily, telling me how much he has lost, & when he gets home, he sends me the bill. Guess he sends the same bill to the other 5 guys who also have 30% each. If he ever won anything, he'd be in serious trouble, of course. No danger there. 

[tikay]

A quick cycling update:

Yesterday, the Tirreno-Adriatico saw a fierce battle among the main contenders, with a surprising win for Alberto Contador. Our man Quintana was unable to launch one of his decisive attacks, and finished just 1sec behind. Our other man Moreno finished 3rd, just 5sec off the pace.

This all sounds rather good for our bets on the face of it, but actually the opposite is true. The race leader, and current favourite, Kwiatkowski, managed to hold on to 7th place ... and only lost 10sec to Contador. Porte only lost 5sec! I was hoping for bigger gaps when I suggested this bet, and unless there are some significant time differences in today's brutal stage, I fear that we are done for. The last stage is a short TT, and both Kwiatkowski and Porte are very good at them.

As it stands, Quintana is 23sec (3rd) behind and Moreno is 69sec (12th) to the deficit.

Thanks Wetty. Stranger things have happened, fingers crossed.

How was the Lake District?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £569.75*

Outstanding Bets £3418.68

Free Bets to use, TWO Wlliam Hll first expiry 18th

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=22

* Spreadsheet shows -£529.75 but this does not tally with individual bets concluded since the last report, so needs investigation

A loss of £86.50 since Friday night

Winners

An overall profit of £36 on the Australian Grand Prix, with Rosberg (£40) covering Hamilton (-£40), neither Lotus finishing (+£36), Magnusson podiating in his first grand Prix (+£14) and Perez not doing so (-£10)

Andrew Trimble (+£17.50) four way dead heated for two spots in the Six Nations top try scorer market at a whopping 40-1, so paid half stakes on the each way at 10-1

Losers

Sparta Flame - £20 on friday night

Wyck Hill unplaced in the Midlands national -£60

Anya played for Watford but did not score -£10

Anderson did not beat Federer - £20

France did not win the six nations - £30

All that adds up to -£86.50, and the month result was -£483.25 which makes -£569.75. Four line by line looks at the spreadsheet haven't found the input error. Tme to call in the Meredoctor.

Long term stuff


the good news

* i think we might have had a good result in stage four of the Tirreno-Adriatico  yesterday

Stage 4 Results
ESP  1  CONTADOR VELASCO, Alberto (TINKOFF-SAXO)               6:39:56
COL  2  QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR)              +    1
ESP  3  MORENO FERNANDEZ, Daniel (KATUSHA)                      +    5

General Classification after Stage 4
POL  1  KWIATKOWSKI, Michal (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP)        16:06:42
ESP  2  CONTADOR VELASCO, Alberto (TINKOFF-SAXO)                 +   16
COL  3  QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR)               +   23
AUS  4  PORTE, Richie (SKY)                                      +   34
COL  5  URAN URAN, Rigoberto (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP)         +   38
CZE  6  KREUZIGER, Roman (TINKOFF-SAXO)                          +   39
CRO  7  KISERLOVSKI, Robert (TREK FACTORY RACING)                +   49
ITA  8  MOSER, Moreno (CANNONDALE)                               + 1:01
ESP  9  NIEVE ITURALDE, Mikel (SKY)                              + 1:02
COL  10 ARREDONDO MORENO, Julian David (TREK FACTORY RACING)     + 1:03
USA  11 HORNER, Christopher (LAMPRE - MERIDA)                    + 1:06
ESP  12 MORENO FERNANDEZ, Daniel (KATUSHA)                       + 1:09

two stages to go i think? today (stage 5) looks mountainous from the route map so Qunitana country

Click to see full-size image.

* League one top goalscorer

19 Assombalonga
18 Baldock
18 Lowe
17 Wilson
16 Mooney

Mooney though is slipping away, very out of goal-scoring form

* Championship Winner market

Leicester are 17 points clear of third with 10 games to go

* Rodriguez scoring for Southampton

* A Palace away point, still miles off the top half

* Watford beating B******, and are slowly consolidating their top half spot


The Bad

* Newcastle's loss at Fulham was a Krul result for the hopes of that handicap bet

* Hull's loss bad news for the handicap bet and also they are now only two points clear of Palace in the top promoted club market

* Cardiff tanned by a(nother) injury time Everton winner

* B******

* the worst weekend for a quite a while in the Championship top scorers market

Ings is injured, Nugent and Vokes did not score and McCormack did. The previously slumbering Jordan Rodes scored a hat-trick

 24 McCormack
 20 Ings
 20 Rhodes
 18 Vokes
 17 Nugent

This is the first time in some months that all three of are runners are not in the each way places

* Reading drew, no goals in four games now

* The "bet of the year" lost in their first match since the bet was placed

* Tranmere came from behind to beat Notts County and leave the L1 relegation places

* Darren Bent. A 19 year old striker was given his debut by Penfold as Bent did not start

* Southampton not going down

* Ulloa did not score for Brighton

* Winnall did not score for Scunthorpe


today we need Arsenal to win, Suarez to score but Liverpool not to win. Not much to ask

2014 is proving tough, some self-enforced errors in that, but tough times

[cheapwetsuit]

A quick cycling update:

Yesterday, the Tirreno-Adriatico saw a fierce battle among the main contenders, with a surprising win for Alberto Contador. Our man Quintana was unable to launch one of his decisive attacks, and finished just 1sec behind. Our other man Moreno finished 3rd, just 5sec off the pace.

This all sounds rather good for our bets on the face of it, but actually the opposite is true. The race leader, and current favourite, Kwiatkowski, managed to hold on to 7th place ... and only lost 10sec to Contador. Porte only lost 5sec! I was hoping for bigger gaps when I suggested this bet, and unless there are some significant time differences in today's brutal stage, I fear that we are done for. The last stage is a short TT, and both Kwiatkowski and Porte are very good at them.

As it stands, Quintana is 23sec (3rd) behind and Moreno is 69sec (12th) to the deficit.

Thanks Wetty. Stranger things have happened, fingers crossed.

How was the Lake District?

I'm still up in Kendal, but the weather is not what it was the first two days. Went up Scafell Pike yesterday, and it was covered in fog (and snow), seriously gusty, and very cold. I also managed to get lost on the way back down, and spent about an hour trying to find a landmark in the fog. I would rather have been sat in the pub watching England v Italy. Which is what I'll be doing today (Man Utd v Liverpool).

Still loving the Lake Districts though. Stunningly beautiful place, and lovely people.

[TightEnd]

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[Chompy]

Can we get on with unibet? If so, 14/1 Jordan Rhodes is worth taking for Champo Golden Boot.

Obv McCormack is going to take some catching but Blackburn have 11 games left and he should be clear second favourite imo.

Skybet and BMU go 5/1 and 6/1 respectively, which is nearer the mark.

[tikay]

Can we get on with unibet? If so, 14/1 Jordan Rhodes is worth taking for Champo Golden Boot.

Obv McCormack is going to take some catching but Blackburn have 11 games left and he should be clear second favourite imo.

Skybet and BMU go 5/1 and 6/1 respectively, which is nearer the mark.

How much would you suggest?

I have a Unibet account, but I'd need to fund it, as I withdrew my balance in a bit of a huff as they messed me around when I first deposited.

Are we talking £1 ew, £2.50 ew, that sort of thing? Or more "Bet of the Century" sort of money?

[arbboy]

Is the correct procedure in this spot to apologise?

Chompy - the new Eso Kral?

Chomps stuff without wanting to kiss his arse should be snap max stuff every time. He is a low volume high margin punter like the old school did when the game was easy.  Can't remember the last time I didn't have the max on whatever he put up. He takes a lot of tounge in cheek Luton banter on here but , in all seriousness, we
should be having the max on everything he puts up.

I await the chompy fan club gags. The same doesn't apply to eso he is a run good luck box!

I told you he should have remained banned.......

I

I will retire when two baldies call me out who are both younger than me!!!!!!!  In other news I hVe just busted the afternoon 25/25 at the Vic how many winners does Channing need to have a night off!!!  He is here playing a 200 donkfest on the evening shift at the Vic. People say it's luck. It's all about graft!!

 I actually put this one in the diary weeks ago as a good event which would be fun and I liked the idea of doing all my Saturday stuff, being free to play a full "day 1" in the evening and then "only" missing a Sunday if you get through.

 Now I'm knackered and I have to be back at noon (sik bragz).

 It was also in my thinking that the new neighbours were having a house-warming so I wanted to go out. I hate to sound old but the music is deafening, I'd like to sleep and it's 3.45 am. obviously I'm English so I'm simply going to suffer.

Great MTT was a lot of fun in the afternoon but the late day1c is brutal to finish so late and day 2 starts so early on Sunday put me off having a 2nd bullet.  GL today.

[tikay]

Can we get on with unibet? If so, 14/1 Jordan Rhodes is worth taking for Champo Golden Boot.

Obv McCormack is going to take some catching but Blackburn have 11 games left and he should be clear second favourite imo.

Skybet and BMU go 5/1 and 6/1 respectively, which is nearer the mark.

Note that Unibet are WIN ONLY on this Market.

My Account there is squeaky clean, this was my first ever bet with them. 

I inserted "£25" & they offered me £14. 

I took it, but I'm not overly impressed with that Restriction on a brand new Account which has never been used.

Anyway, the bet is on.

I cannot even C & P the Betslip, it will not allow me.

£14 @ 14/1, Unibet, Jordan Rhodes, Championship Leading Scorer. (Includes Play-Offs).


BET PLACED

[cheapwetsuit]

Richie Porte has just dropped out of Tirreno-Adriatico (illness) and Geraint Thomas (crash) has quit Paris-Nice. Just need Kwiatkowski to get dropped today to have a real chance.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

So, so close to a Trimble scoop. Ah well at least the dripping tap is still on.

Today's rugby league bet has to be lots of points at Castleford, who have a potent attack and a leaky defence. Weather is fine so over 52.5 is the call. It is a bit disappointing that the bookies have adjusted their anytime try scorer markets from last season. Remember the 4 in a row from " The Beast " at just under Evens? Well he, and all the usual suspects are now getting priced up at at about 1/3 which is no good. Still, Andy Murray is back in action next week so it should be service break city Arizona.

Suggest £24 over 52.5 points  Castleford v Hull @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.

[redarmi]

There is often talk in Fred about how efficient the markets are for Premiership football but I am not sure it doesn't suffer from the same biases that other high profile sports like the NFL do ie. when a team gets beaten in embarrassing fashion or wins in flashy style on live TV they tend to be underrated and overrated in their next games.  Today we have one of the most high profile games of the year in Man Utd v Liverpool.  Man United just seem too big to me at slightly bigger than 6/4 on Betfair.  It is hard to articulate why I think that is other than that it seems unlikely in the long run that Man United are as bad as they have seemed and a Liverpool team that conceded two goals to Fulham and three goals to Swansea are probably not absolute world beaters.  I think United should be 5/4 and will be having a small bet.

[TightEnd]

The T20 World Cup Qualifying Rounds have begun today in Bangladesh

Afghanistan are playing the hosts

The key point here is the pitch is slow, low and there was spin from the first ball. This is the pitch England play on in the first game against New Zealand next Saturday. markets haven't formed yet but it is EXACTLY the sort of pitch that does not suit us and we do not have the slow bowling to be competitive in the playing conditions in this world Cup. I will be looking to oppose in that first game if we can get Evens+ NZ

We have positions on NZ, Pak and SL to win, and I don't propose adding more (though I really like WI at 8/1)

The sub-markets are mouth-watering though, and would like to propose a portfolio of positions for "value", trying to oppose well known favourites in many cases which will be over-bet by the armchair supporter and priced up by the odds-setter..

what are we looking for?

- Batsmen who can clear the ropes, and score independently of relying on a quick pitch (we aren't going to see them) or pace on the ball (teams are not going to offer it, much)
- Slow bowlers who are under-exposed in markets, and preferably spin it a lot
- Assuming where they can teams will open with wrist spin, and early wickets against openers not used to facing it are a theme, is there any value lower down the order?
- teams that are not in their usual conditions, and therefore more inefficiently priced. Therefore not India/Pak/SL. 

In no particular order   

- Australia

No bowling bet, their weakness is the absence of convincing spin
They do have the best batting line up in the competition though for T20. Warner, Finch, White, Bailey, Maxwell, Hodge has serious poke
This is why they are 3/1 favourites for the tournament. This is priced in though, no value in a randomising format
the batting market has Warner 2/1, Finch 11/4 (William Hill). Warner is no value, Finch better value. Essentially the same player at nearly 1.5 x the price
The inefficient price might be Brad Hodge 14-1 Sportingbet, a big hitting finisher.




Recommendations

Aaron Finch £20 top Australian batsman Wlliam Hill
Brad Hodge £5 top Australian batsman Sportingbet

England

Same as in West Indies, in theory
No convincing spin options on slow pitches
Early batsmen can't play spin
This puts 5,6,7 in for more overs than the prices suggest
I think they are unlikely to get through the group
BUT the group only has Sri Lanka of the Asian teams, NZ and SA are far more reasonable opponents in unusual conditions



Sportingbet offer us 12/1 Buttler and 16/1 Bopara Both are bets, £10 each


Ireland

The Ireland top 5 have 3 accumulators (Porterfield, Joyce, Wilson) and two biffers (Stirling and kevin o'brien). We can get Kevin O'Brien, a proper destructive batsman who wins games at twice the price we can Stirling. A must bet, especially as the later order guys often get a lot of overs to bat (early wickets)




8/1 Stan James is a bet if you can get it, 7/1 Ladbrokes if you have to: Kevin O'Brien Top Ireland batsman

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/ireland/top-batsman

South Africa

The batsman market for this is interested because the brilliant Amla is priced at 5/2 favourite, yet it is my contention that by often scoring at less than a run a ball in T20 opening he loses games for SA as often as wins them.
This pushes out AB DeVilliers probably a top 5 batsman in the whole tournnament in this format out to 9/2 with Sportingbet, Faf Du Plessis, batting in the top 4 and captain, out to 6/1 with Betfred and the destructive finisher David Miller out to 17/2. I think the winner is one of these three, the lowest variance choice is 



Recommendation ABdeV £20 Top South frican batsman 9/2 Sportingbet

West Indies

I said a couple of days ago I think they are a real threat in this
All sorts of big hitters, two top quality wrist spinners, great fielders.
Their achilles heel? game craft, brains

Anyway the bookies aren't going to take any chances with Chris Gayle, 2/1 top batsman. that however gives us the powerful Lendl Smmons, batting 4 or 5 at 8-1 with Stan James. A best of 5/1 elsewhere this is one of the bets of the tournament. Someone get on for tikay

Click to see full-size image.

Recommendation Lendl Smmons 8/1 Stan James Top WI Bat

The bowling market is also wrong. Narine is well known by odds-setters and installed at 13/8 but the batsmen know him too. The one with more mystery, who the Eglish found very tough to play and is far less exposed is Badree at 9/2 betvictor. Will play everygame, might open the bowling, genuine value in a virtual match with Narine




Recommendation Samuel Badree 9/2 BetVictor Top WI Bowler

Because I think the WI could go a long way in this, there is also another key inefficiency in the market

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/top-bowler 

Narine is priced at 6/1 favourite!

Badree, who as you can tell I rate in these conditions, is out at 40-1. Essentially the same bowler, one more experienced than the other

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/top-bowler

Recommendation £5 Samuel Badree 40-1 Bet Victor Top T20 World Cup Bowler


Summary

Aaron Finch £20 11/4 top Australian batsman William Hill
Brad Hodge £5 14/1 top Australian batsman Sportingbet
Jos Buttler £10 12/1 Top England bat Sportingbet
Ravi Bopara £10 16/1 Top England bat Sportingbet
ABdeVilliers £20 Top South African batsman 9/2 Sportingbet
Kevin O'Brien £30 Top Ireland batsman 7/1 Ladbrokes
Lendl Smmons £20 8/1 Stan James Top WI Bat
Samuel Badree £20 9/2 BetVictor Top WI Bowler
Samuel Badree £5 40-1 Bet Victor Top T20 World Cup Bowler

thats £140. if too much my three naps for value are:

Badree at 9/2, Kevin O'Brien at 7/1, Finch 11/4 which as recommended would cost £70

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

So, so close to a Trimble scoop. Ah well at least the dripping tap is still on.

Today's rugby league bet has to be lots of points at Castleford, who have a potent attack and a leaky defence. Weather is fine so over 52.5 is the call. It is a bit disappointing that the bookies have adjusted their anytime try scorer markets from last season. Remember the 4 in a row from " The Beast " at just under Evens? Well he, and all the usual suspects are now getting priced up at at about 1/3 which is no good. Still, Andy Murray is back in action next week so it should be service break city Arizona.

Suggest £24 over 52.5 points  Castleford v Hull @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.

Afternoon Mr hector.

Yes, we were so close with Trimble, what a great result that might have been, 40/1! Still, we turned a profit, so must not grumble.

That Points line has moved to 53.5, everywhere. Still a bet?

[arbboy]

There is often talk in Fred about how efficient the markets are for Premiership football but I am not sure it doesn't suffer from the same biases that other high profile sports like the NFL do ie. when a team gets beaten in embarrassing fashion or wins in flashy style on live TV they tend to be underrated and overrated in their next games.  Today we have one of the most high profile games of the year in Man Utd v Liverpool.  Man United just seem too big to me at slightly bigger than 6/4 on Betfair.  It is hard to articulate why I think that is other than that it seems unlikely in the long run that Man United are as bad as they have seemed and a Liverpool team that conceded two goals to Fulham and three goals to Swansea are probably not absolute world beaters.  I think United should be 5/4 and will be having a small bet.

Big +1 to this as well regarding efficiency of the market place in EPL markets esp less than an hour before kick off.   Stoke yesterday drifted from 5/4 to 6/4 around 215pm then they were smashed right back into 5/4 in the last 30 mins.  There was no substantial team news that wasn't already know well in advance (Walters suspension which many stoke fans actually thinks improves stokes team when he doesn't play).  On all known form/league table/sporting index season points totals etc etc there is literally nothing between the teams therefore stoke should have been around the 6/5 5/4 mark yet for no logical reason they drift to 6/4 before the market 'corrects' itself into 5/4.