surely though when we jam the turn we take a huge chunk of airballs out? if he has a hand like a pair with the
or the
, maybe even the
vs this guy he'll call anyways but his non-spade airballs he's just going to fold surely? I can't work the stacks out but do we have room to click the turn back? that could be cool as he might peel some garbage or even jam with nothing. I guess the profit of a turn click-back is going to depend on the comparable frequencies between him jaming air/pair+big spades to the time times he just flats his big spades to the time he calls a turn jam or bigger raise with his big spade hands.
If he jams with air hardly ever and calls with his big spades most of the time then a turn raise would be bad (speshly if he calls of his big spade hands which I think he will) but given how he prolly has airballs/light semi-bluffs here a lot of the time I can't see too much merit for a raise without more reads we're not being told about.
I can see logic behind calling the river vs some poor players, a lot of the more spazzy-passive (stnd "fish" tendancies I think) ones would never have the
or the
here because they would never semi-bluff that hand on the turn, they'd be completely polarised to a flush (could well be smaller than yours) or a random airball. Guys like this guy in my experience from what you've said (and proven by the fact he turns up with AQ here bluffing - or at least we think he's bluffing) are capable of bluffing with showdown hands/good draws, which makes the river an impossible call imo, he could even decide to "bluff" with a hand like Q*
which would suck, a lot of times people like this guy will reach and river and just jam because he doesn't read the hand too good and his default style of play is to be aggressive. It's a terrible terrible bluff as your range has plenty of
hands in (assuming you flat all your flushes ott which I think you should) and I'd say your turn range is wieghted pretty hevily towards flushes,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
(and so on) + some smaller combo's as well as some
Q*,
Q* hands nearly all of which call this river (
possibly the only one folding) the only naked set you could realistically have is 33 and you're raise the flop a high% and you could have JT no spades I guess. but basically a massive chunk of your turn range is calling this river jam which makes it a terrible bluff from him, just so happens we had the fragment of our range which needs to fold, doesn't make his play any better or our play any worse.
Just not meant to be this hand.
fuc me i got a headache just reading first line! you Win !
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