Thoughts

[Pinchop73]

Mt.Spewmore: folds

Wait, whahhhhhhhat?!

Just some of my thoughts....

Villain is a winning player (but so is UhhMee) running 15/11 over 700.

EDIT: Just searched him, he is a big winner over fairly small volume. (compared to real high volume grinders, 6000mtt's this year isn't much)

He's playing a 33bb stack out of the bb.

He might flat JJ, but unlikely. He wouldn't flat J9, even suited. Highly suspect he wouldn't flat 22.

So that's 6 hand combo's (99+JJ) in his range that beat us.

He's flat 77-TT. He'd likely flat QTs. He'd also flat some spade combo's, ATss, KQss, Q9ss. He'd flat AJo-AQo. I would say there's a higher chance of him floating the flop with these, than flatting 22 pre.

What will your stats look like to him? 700 hands is a lot. Any notes?

Although I fully understand your reasons for folding, I just think long term folding here is more than likely going to hurt your $

[tight4better]

The more I think the more I feel it's a fold readless. Though you're still a sicko.

*hat off*

[TL900]

Why would he not flat 22 or J9s? No notes that help this hand in any way.

I guess the hand is pretty interesting when some are saying snap call and some are saying snap fold.

[Pinchop73]

Because he hasn't the odds to call 22 and J9s profitably.

Just looked at this more. I think I prefer a glorious shove on the river as opposed to bet folding.

It looks terribly bluffy, which means we'll get hero'd much wider than a std value bet. We'll get called by worse combos with a jam (QT, worse FHs, sometimes J9, 2x) way more than we get called by better. Very little he checks the turn with that doesn't call a jam, and it also prevents said hands that don't call (KQss etc) to be turned into a bluff.

Timing on his river jam? Snap? Tankings?

[Pinchop73]

Guess the only real deciding factor in this hand is the question...How often do winning regs bluff in these spots? (considering we folded 4th nuts)

Is it...
<0.5%
<2%
<10%
?

In my opinion its more than 2%, which is enough to make it a call. But obv you guys feel it is precisely zero, in which case its a b/f.

[aaron1867]

This is probably one of most interesting HH's for a while.

But just find some of OP comments a bit contradictory. You say that you played bad pre-flop, but you are still calling and putting him on bigger hand after? At one point seems to put him on 99, but call on flop?

Not sure on the player, but you just have to call it off, imo.

[Oxford_HRV]

thoughts? Wow, what can I say.
does look like your river bet is weak, and I couldn't make that bet fold in game. vwp sir
surely villain can be doing that move with every house trips and 2pair he could hold??
what I think we need to understand is how he perceives what value range you would call off or even fold with
putting 1.7 into 4k with a decent chunk back
 when turn checks through river bet can't look stealy on this board considering your position and actions.
so 1 combo of deuces
     6 combo of J/9
     16 combo of QT
     3 combo of JJ
     3 combo of 99

^ I think, so 29 legit hands I put him having, we beat 22 so effectively ahead of about 75% of his range that he plays in this manor
     does this make it a call?.... I have no idea!

the way you play this hand and how you catch this river is pretty sweet IMO, and with your perceived range for leading 2/5th ish of pot on the river is hugely +ev for villain to shove that range I assigned

[tight4better]

So we're putting him on a bare float with QT high OTF then?! Don't think he ever in a million years has QT here.

[snoopy1239]

Can't assume people play perfectly all the time. A hand like A-2 and J-9 could definitely reach this river and get a little excited, or think he's getting called more often than he is; a bluff is also possible.

[Oxford_HRV]

So we're putting him on a bare float with QT high OTF then?! Don't think he ever in a million years has QT here.

I'm putting him on having about 30 decent hands he does this on the river with, we can eliminate QT if you want and just add a couple 2X hands, theory still works out the same

[muckthenuts]

thoughts? Wow, what can I say.
does look like your river bet is weak, and I couldn't make that bet fold in game. vwp sir
surely villain can be doing that move with every house trips and 2pair he could hold??
what I think we need to understand is how he perceives what value range you would call off or even fold with
putting 1.7 into 4k with a decent chunk back
 when turn checks through river bet can't look stealy on this board considering your position and actions.
so 1 combo of deuces
     6 combo of J/9
     16 combo of QT
     3 combo of JJ
     3 combo of 99

^ I think, so 29 legit hands I put him having, we beat 22 so effectively ahead of about 75% of his range that he plays in this manor
     does this make it a call?.... I have no idea!

the way you play this hand and how you catch this river is pretty sweet IMO, and with your perceived range for leading 2/5th ish of pot on the river is hugely +ev for villain to shove that range I assigned

Can't count combos like this since people don't always play hands a certain way. Just as an example if you estimate he plays QT this way half the time then you count 8 combos.

[Oxford_HRV]

yes but from the way this hand has played out I'm estimating villain is doing this with all combos listed, probably more.
lets say he doesn't have QT ever... which after reading this thread seems very likely :p
we can still say he can have A2 maybe a random 2X hand villain likes aswell, so effectively still around 77%< of the time we win, pretty sure I could never fold this. and I think you shouldn't either,

I just picture from villains POV, how often are you ever going to call your whole stack off here?
my opinion is, you got done over by FE. could still be an amazingly sick fold so alot of respect still.

[Pugwashed]

thoughts? Wow, what can I say.
does look like your river bet is weak, and I couldn't make that bet fold in game. vwp sir
surely villain can be doing that move with every house trips and 2pair he could hold??
what I think we need to understand is how he perceives what value range you would call off or even fold with
putting 1.7 into 4k with a decent chunk back
 when turn checks through river bet can't look stealy on this board considering your position and actions.
so 1 combo of deuces
     6 combo of J/9
     16 combo of QT
     3 combo of JJ
     3 combo of 99

^ I think, so 29 legit hands I put him having, we beat 22 so effectively ahead of about 75% of his range that he plays in this manor
     does this make it a call?.... I have no idea!

the way you play this hand and how you catch this river is pretty sweet IMO, and with your perceived range for leading 2/5th ish of pot on the river is hugely +ev for villain to shove that range I assigned

I think he does this almost 0% of the time with J9 and QT never ever gets to the river. Even if you include both combos of A2s that are left then we're still only right 1/4 times. Against a fish just call it off (they value bet incorrectly and are probably wider pre so more likely to have 2x), vs a reg it seems like a fold (unless you know they love to turn stuff into bluffs but even then it seems unlikely they'd be trying to make you fold when your range is so ridiculously strong here.)

[Oxford_HRV]

I'm not sure I can agree. what makes our range so strong here? villain running 18/14 is pretty loose aggro I think, so I'm inclined in saying he can make this move with alot, and take off on the river, it's not out of the question.
he's playing his hand here and can't ever be putting us on a house, surely a huge amount of the poker playing population would shovel alot of lower houses, trips and go a bit wappy with 2pair ect.
personally think it's more possible villain would min click JJ or 99 here pre, than us being beat on the river.
 22s, 99s is the only hands I'm worried we're beat by.

[TL900]

the villian who shoved is 15/11 and he overcalled the flop so he can't have QT