Tips by Tighty

[TightEnd]

something like that

We are a seller this summer, £21m over FFP on wage bill or else its transfer embargo time

So in addition to the driftwood like danns, beckford, wellens, gallagher etc leaving the likes of Schmeichel, King, Morgan, Knockaert etc are probably poachable

[TightEnd]

£25 Vettel F1 World Wm Hill as per TfT 11/8

Tyre spec changes mid season suit Red Bull not Ferrari, full reasoning on there

[TightEnd]

Some semi-inside info is that the Lords pitch for the first test against New Zeland on Friday is slow and low

The chances are that Bresnan plays ahead of Finn

It is a two test series, second test at Headingley which so far has seen scores of over 500 and 600 this season

The England top bowler market reflects conventional thinking. English summer, seam bowling etc

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-new-zealand/test-series/england-new-zealand-tests/top-england-bowler

However two games on a slow pitch and a batting paradise make me think we should be looking at Swann at 9/2

Anderson is priced up
Broad is priced up
Finn and Bresnan might not play two tests.

Swann will play both

Saw him last week and he is fit, and bowling with plenty of rotation on the ball. Was much missed against a left hander like Rutherford in the series earlier this year and will be the stock bolwer bowling a lot of overs on these wickets at these venues

Recommend £20 Swann top series bowler 9/2

[TightEnd]

Added, as per TfT

Mumbai Indians IPL £10 at 5-1

nb to self

-10/50

lay 15 at 2.6

becomes

+5/+26

[TightEnd]

Updating

Mumbai post hedge +£26

Monaco GP Rosberg/Raikkonen £5e/w each +£38 (tft mon)

less CL Bet 365 offer Dortmund x2 -£50 (tft sat)

less Swan -£20



Profit £283.03 on £1647.75

ROI 17.61%


Still live


Middlesex e/w 7-1
e/w Northants County Champ Div 2 20-1,12-1
Vettel 11/8 F1 WC

Lions Tour

Warburton  Lions Captain max bet Warburton £30 at 11-4, £20 at 4-1

£25 England under 2.5  Evens £25  Wales over 7.5 in the first test side Evens and £50 Wales top nation in 1st test at 1/4

[TightEnd]

Been severely under it time wise with ISPT/SPT and family stuff so not active the last fortnight, even forgot to put NZ Champions trophy on for myself

Situation is as above +£283 for ROI 17%

Researching Ashes, US Open Golf, Wimbledon, Tour De France and lower league football markets for 2013-14. There is a real opportunity in Conference North I think, but softly softly as its a thin market

Still Live

Cricket

£15 ew Middlesex e/w 7-1, 2nd and 3/1 now
e/w Northants County Champ Div 2 20-1 (£5 ew),12-1 (£7.5 ew) 1st by a long way and 2-1 favourites now

F1

£25 Vettel 11/8 F1 WC. Now 34 points clear and 4/6

Lions

Warburton captain in first Test. Looks a bit hairier than it was with Tipuric playing lights out and lots of back row competition.

Warburton Lions Captain max bet Warburton £30 at 11-4, £20 at 4-1

£25 England under 2.5  Evens £25  Wales over 7.5 in the first test side Evens and £50 Wales top nation in 1st test at 1/4

Very happy with the Welsh bets, England bet is trickier as the loose head props Healy and Jenkins went home injured so an England player will play there. Croft might play, tuilagi might play....so we'll see

[TightEnd]

Tomorrow is a big day for Sam Warburton

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/22895822


Meanwhile I am formulating Ashes bets, with the help of a County Groundsman who is educating me in drainage systems. anything for an edge!

[outragous76]

Tomorrow is a big day for Sam Warburton

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/22895822


Meanwhile I am formulating Ashes bets, with the help of a County Groundsman who is educating me in drainage systems. anything for a hedge!

Fyp

 

[TightEnd]

So the Lions Test team

Warburton did enough, big at the breakdown, works well with the referees. He's in

I Have 7 Welsh certainties

Halfpenny
north
Roberts or Jonathan Davies. Davies was fantastic today and all tour
Phillips
Adam Jones
Alun Wyn Jones
Warburton

We need one of

Falateu over Heaslip
Hibbard over Youngs
Cuthbert over Zebo

to make it

I think Croft starts over Lydiate and Tipuric is unlucky too. Real area of strength the back row

I am extremely confident in the over 7.5 Welsh players bet

I also have England under 2.5 Croft is 1,a prop is another and I can only see Tom Youngs as the third. So that should land too

I also have Wales top nation at 1/4. That is now no price, a certainty

[outragous76]

Tomorrow is a big day for Sam Warburton

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/22895822


Meanwhile I am formulating Ashes bets, with the help of a County Groundsman who is educating me in drainage systems. anything for a hedge!

Fyp

 

My humour clearly wasted here :0(

[DungBeetle]

Tighty - as an F1 man, what are your thoughts on the punishments facing Mercedes at the Tribunal this week?

[TightEnd]

Tighty - as an F1 man, what are your thoughts on the punishments facing Mercedes at the Tribunal this week?

I'm not sure being an "F1 Man" is adequate to have a view on the arcane world of F1 politics

Clearly Pirelli shouldn't have asked Mercedes to do the test, and clearly Mercedes shouldn't have done it but you can understand why they did and why a team like Red Bull didn't...

Might they at one end of possible reparations offer all other teams a test day? Might they suspend Mercedes for a grand Prix

No idea!

[TightEnd]

I wrote a few days ago

Lions

Warburton captain in first Test. Looks a bit hairier than it was with Tipuric playing lights out and lots of back row competition.

Warburton Lions Captain max bet Warburton £30 at 11-4, £20 at 4-1

£25 England under 2.5  Evens £25  Wales over 7.5 in the first test side Evens and £50 Wales top nation in 1st test at 1/4

Very happy with the Welsh bets, England bet is trickier as the loose head props Healy and Jenkins went home injured so an England player will play there. Croft might play, tuilagi might play....so we'll see


Three of these four landed, the exception being England with 3 players

So, updating

Profit £463.03 on £1897.75

ROI  24.3%


Still Live

Cricket

£15 ew Middlesex e/w 7-1,
e/w Northants County Champ Div 2 20-1 (£5 ew),12-1 (£7.5 ew)

F1

£25 Vettel 11/8 F1 WC.

[TightEnd]

1 £50 Clarke top Aus batsman Ashes 5/2 PP

Have to take this before it goes, reasoning in TfT

2 Will have Swann top bowler in the top English market too £30 at 3-1 B365, reasoning in TfT

3 Lions v Aus 2nd Test Australia at 17/10 £30 Sporting Bet

reasoning at http://www.betpal.com/british-lions-in-australia-second-test-betting-preview

4 British Grand Prix £10 ew Webber 10-1 Stan James

reasoning at http://www.betpal.com/british-grand-prix-2013-betting-preview            



Winners recently

http://www.betpal.com/british-lions-versus-act-brumbies-match-preview            
http://www.betpal.com/australia-v-british-lions-first-test-betting-preview               
http://www.betpal.com/england-v-new-zealand-t20-cricket-betting-preview               

but forgot/too busy to post on here first, so can't count them :-)

[TightEnd]

Updating for the Australia win v the Lions

Profit £514.03 on £1927.75

ROI  26.6%

Outstanding

£50 Clarke top Aus batsman Ashes 5/2 PP
Swann top bowler in the top English market too £30 at 3-1 B365
British Grand Prix £10 ew Webber 10-1 Stan James
£15 ew Middlesex e/w 7-1,
e/w Northants County Champ Div 2 20-1 (£5 ew),12-1 (£7.5 ew)
£25 Vettel 11/8 F1 WC.