Live cash: 2/5 at the Vic. River spot

[Ironside]

i call and FML when he turns over 55

[MC]

Literally no hand makes any sense here, that beats us, randomly bluffs or value owns itself.

It screams nuts, but I just don't see how he plays any hands that are sets/straights like this

Sigh that we have to be good 53% or more of the time, but I Negreanu it in here.

[Mondeoman]

Literally no hand makes any sense here, that beats us, randomly bluffs or value owns itself.

It screams nuts, but I just don't see how he plays any hands that are sets/straights like this

Sigh that we have to be good 53% or more of the time, but I Negreanu it in here.

We only have to be good 35% of the time

[MC]

Literally no hand makes any sense here, that beats us, randomly bluffs or value owns itself.

It screams nuts, but I just don't see how he plays any hands that are sets/straights like this

Sigh that we have to be good 53% or more of the time, but I Negreanu it in here.

We only have to be good 35% of the time

Oops typo

[cambridgealex]

Literally no hand makes any sense here, that beats us, randomly bluffs or value owns itself.

It screams nuts, but I just don't see how he plays any hands that are sets/straights like this

Sigh that we have to be good 53% or more of the time, but I Negreanu it in here.

We only have to be good 35% of the time

Oops typo

lol OK

[MC]

Literally no hand makes any sense here, that beats us, randomly bluffs or value owns itself.

It screams nuts, but I just don't see how he plays any hands that are sets/straights like this

Sigh that we have to be good 53% or more of the time, but I Negreanu it in here.

We only have to be good 35% of the time

Oops typo

lol OK

[pleno1]

is he good? if so, all in?

[jgcblack]

so many heros itt,

I think its a call.. don't see a reason to raise without really specific history..

[Deadman]

Fold. It makes no sense for him to have it here but with the sizing he defo has it most of the time. Maybe a sigh call, but fold IMO... Raising here is terrible.

[GreekStein]

always calling

[pleno1]

Fold. It makes no sense for him to have it here but with the sizing he defo has it most of the time. Maybe a sigh call, but fold IMO... Raising here is terrible.

Can we at least try to think in ranges rather than just assumptions on betting patterns, especially as villain is good.

[cambridgealex]

Fold. It makes no sense for him to have it here but with the sizing he defo has it most of the time. Maybe a sigh call, but fold IMO... Raising here is terrible.

Can we at least try to think in ranges rather than just assumptions on betting patterns, especially as villain is good.

lol yeh what have you ever won deadman?

[Pugwashed]

Fold. It makes no sense for him to have it here but with the sizing he defo has it most of the time. Maybe a sigh call, but fold IMO... Raising here is terrible.

Can we at least try to think in ranges rather than just assumptions on betting patterns, especially as villain is good.

If we can't call then I guess we have one of the better hands to be bluffing with. In that case, from a theory perspective, maybe we should never ever fold this hand, either its good enough to call and if its not then its a hand we should be bluffing with. But imo having a leading range on the river pretty bad from villains perspective which would make less worried that I might not have a balanced river raising range cos his river donk is dumb anyway so I doubt we need to be that concerned about playing perfectly (from a theory perspective) in these deep river spots

(I'll reread tomorrow when soberer and edit / delete appropriately)

[stato_1]

Fold. It makes no sense for him to have it here but with the sizing he defo has it most of the time. Maybe a sigh call, but fold IMO... Raising here is terrible.

Can we at least try to think in ranges rather than just assumptions on betting patterns, especially as villain is good.

I think the whole point of Simons post is that this is exactly what we should not be doing in this spot. Thinking in terms of ranges this is a clear call but random live players don't have a range outside the nuts in this spot and I kind of agree. I'm fairly
Convinced this is fold even though I'm perfectly Capable of thinking in ranges where that applies.

Doesn't say anywhere that villain is good at all. It's a Vic cash reg.

[pleno1]

Fold. It makes no sense for him to have it here but with the sizing he defo has it most of the time. Maybe a sigh call, but fold IMO... Raising here is terrible.

Can we at least try to think in ranges rather than just assumptions on betting patterns, especially as villain is good.

lol yeh what have you ever won deadman?

What's it got todo with anything?  This is a hand discussion not a 'who has won the most live tournaments discussion'

Fwiw I often post on PHA saying 'fold, 'prolly jamming' etc but if i don't think after somebody posts something saying its awful without any form of justification isn't great.

Just because somebody is strong, evidently from body language, waft ever it doesn't mean that 1) he beats us or 2) e isn't capped.

In this spot particularly his slow played goo hands all beat us as I don't expect somebody to play j10o w/this sizing. However he is almost certainly capped, whilst we definitely are not. If we think he always folds aj vs a shove and folds the sets x > of the time so that we can work out roughly what kind of profit a jam would show. In reality it will probably end up being mathematically a fold, but if in poker ou always just assume ah he's strong il fold then you are losing a significant potential edge, which is why I brought it up.

In terms of blockers it's actually way better to have a10 here than kq even though kq is the hand we would potentially like to represent. In this case villain just should never have a c/c ott w/kqs and we block 10s.

Anyway it's very likely that fold will be best but in spots like this you should always at least think about the other options.

Gl in deauville chaps.