Strictly Come Dancing 2013

[aaron1867]

I know nothing about dancing Doobs, but I see it as a massive struggle to see him get eliminated.

As mentioned above, he would probably need to be in the dance off with Natalie or Susanna to get booted off the show.

Obviously I have no idea about betting as I backed Deborah!

[TightEnd]

I've got Ben consistently wrong

What he does have is

- popular support with females
- big gay icon support
- one of THE best professionals - popular and a terrific choreographer. She is also popular with the gay community too

Jive should not suit him at all. She can't flounce round him while he stands there open chested flexing his pecs. He has to move, kick and flick in time, perform...

But I reckon popular vote keeps him out of bottom two almost whatever he scores

Having caught up on the weekend, the Dave thing surely has to wear thin any week now.

[Doobs]

I was fairly sure the Dave thing was going to wear out soon, but now think I was too early.  Given Abbey was 2nd. then we now know that Dave can't be in the bottom 4 or 5 for popularity.  Now I have a better idea of his popularity amongst the voters, I don't think I can back him at this week's 3/1 when last week he was 4/1.   You can deduce Mark is popular too, so don't think I can back him either.  I think Patrick always wins the dance off vs the other outsiders, so don't think he can be a bet either.

The obvious bet is Fiona.  She isn't good enough or bad enough to get many votes, and she isn't likely to get 35 any time soon.  But she is 7/4 and Ben is 10/1.  Dave is the only obvious one that she beats in a dance off.  I will probably back her if someone goes 2/1.  I am licking my wounds a bit after last week. 

[Tal]

Ben was marked fairly IMO. He will need to loosen up in his back if he is to conquer the jive, but he shouldn't have any footwork problems, because he had no trouble getting his weight forward in other Latin dances and he is capable of making his feet move quickly. It isn't an easy dance, though, for a big guy.

Remember that they can do a jitterbuggy jive with lots of throws and catches, so expect to see plenty of that on display. Kristina isn't daft.

[Omm]

Couple of value bets for The bottom 2 market for this week.

Patrick and Ben are both 3-1 with PP, it's only 3 firms offering odds however Ladbrokes go 13/8 and 11/4 respectively and betfair are hovering either side of 6/4.

Obviously both Mark and Fiona are odds on for bottom 2 and we are now getting to the business end so the eliminations might be getting more predictable, that being said the reason I think the bottom 2 market to be different is because of the public. There have been some strange bottom 2 over the last few weeks, Abbey for example and Rachael after her best performance. Mark was in the bottom 2 last week and may benefit from a bounce in voting on the back of it, It could be Fiona's turn to drop into the bottom 2 but not sure how big her fan base is and it doesn't really matter because I think all it takes is for 1 of them not to be in the bottom 2 and that then makes the 3-1 on both Ben and Patrick quite attractive. As well as this Patrick has already been in the dance off a few weeks ago and although he is getting better he could be susceptible to people forgetting to vote for him again.

Anyway thought I would point it out just in case anyone wants to get on, Tal, Doobs and Jaffa I'll happily put it up as a rec in TFT if you agree with the price and reasoning.

[aaron1867]

Didn't Patrick get something like 36 points in his dance?

[Tal]

Didn't Patrick get something like 36 points in his dance?

He was very good, but overmarked IMO. I do wonder sometimes whether the judges decide to spice things up a bit every now and then. Ashley has been the top man for the whole series and really has been a cut above. So, they gave Partrick a bit of extra praise and now that competition is back on.

Ashley has improved. A lot. His frame in the ballroom is much better and he continues to have timing and performance. The only question mark is his popularity. He's been riding high on the leaderboard so hasn't had to worry about the public vote, but the field is slimmer now and, if he were to end up in the dance off with, say, Abbey (a public vote bounce for Mark isn't out of the question), he might well be the one to go. I have no idea about how much he is liked, as it hasn't really been tested, yet.

That would make it a straight fight between Patrick and Ben for top man, if he were to go. It is pretty close between them, I would say. Patrick is the better dancer, but Ben has got some of the harder dances out of the way.

[aaron1867]

How do the judges scores effect things Tal? If a celeb gets 30 does that mean 30 x ? + public vote = final vote?

[Tal]

How do the judges scores effect things Tal? If a celeb gets 30 does that mean 30 x ? + public vote = final vote?

Everyone gets ranked based on judges' scores and gets points based on that:

For example:

Natalie 36 gets 10 points
Sophie 35 gets 9 points
Ashley 32 gets 8
Patrick 27 gets 7

...

Mark 18 gets 1 point.


Then, the same thing happens with the public vote and the total points is what decides who goes through.

[BigAdz]

So when Abby scores highly yet still in the dance off she must be highly unpopular?

[aaron1867]

it's a weird set of voting isn't it, looking at it like that, surely that Fiona must be going next?

[Tal]

So when Abby scores highly yet still in the dance off she must be highly unpopular?

In theory, yes. Sometimes it's just that people deliberately try to save someone else for some reason (harshly treated by the judges?) and someone in the middle gets dragged down to the bottom two because everyone assumes they don't need any help.

[Doobs]

How do the judges scores effect things Tal? If a celeb gets 30 does that mean 30 x ? + public vote = final vote?

Everyone gets ranked based on judges' scores and gets points based on that:

For example:

Natalie 36 gets 10 points
Sophie 35 gets 9 points
Ashley 32 gets 8
Patrick 27 gets 7

...

Mark 18 gets 1 point.


Then, the same thing happens with the public vote and the total points is what decides who goes through.

The other important thing is to realise if there are ties the results are compressed.  So if Patrick, Sophie and Mark all get 35, they all get 9 and the next person gets 8.  So if there are a lot of ties one week, Mark is more likely to be saved.

You can be sure Abbey was absolute bottom of the public vote the week she was in the dance off.  Also I think Dave had to be at least 4th(maybe 5th can't remember exactly) and Mark at least 5th(maybe 6th).  All this isn't as much help as you think, as this kind of maths stopped me backing Dave this week.  I do think it means Abbey isn't nearly popular enough to win.

I am much happier with my Patrick top man bet than the Ben one, but he was clearly overmarked this week.  Ashley still clear for me.  The worry is that Wooden Ben might be more popular than both. 
 

[Ironside]

ok i found this poll from the weekend too help people work out who has the public support and how much

Abbey and Aljaz   17.79%
Ashley and Ola   16.62%
Ben and Kristina    5.76%
Dave and Karen    2.98%
Fiona and Anton   1.28%
Mark and Iveta     2.03%
Patrick and Anya    16.40%
Sophie and Brendan    11.61%
Susanna and Kevin    25.52%


going too be a bit screwed as nat didnt dance

[Tal]

Some real surprises there.