Rate my bluff - 50nl

[Jono3131]

I haven't just decided and it's not needlessly. It seems since people are giving him less attention he feels the need to post these ridiculous hands more often. Notice how he's threads used to get loads of feeback and now get almost none? I am only saying what everyone else is thinking. Also if he was actually interested in improving then he would respond to the people actually trying to help him out and ask him about the hand, instead of posting it and just leaving it and not replying.

I don't mean to be harsh, I wouldn't say anything if I thought they were generally being posted to try and learn. But to post the same sort of hands over and over again just comes across like he is trying to show off in a weird sort of way.

Turn
We've now turned a chunk of equity vs his entire range.. if we river a flush and he pots it ill probably just call but when he checks a heart river we can get value some % of the time.  I don't think a lot of people will fold turn if we raise, they're more likely to bet then bet/fold ime.


Flame away...

I agree with preflop and flop. It's this where I think you go wrong.

Think about what you are saying 'a chunky of equity'. How have you?

If he has a set you have a bare fd (18%).

If he has AA/KK/QQ (inc ones with a heart) you have ~5%.

Let's be generous and say the times when you river a flush and he has a set he calls you 33% of the time.

50% of the time he rivers a flush with AA/KK/QQ he has you beat and you call. The other 50% of the time he checks  you bet and he calls 33% of the time again with a worse hand again.

If he has a flush you have 15% and I reckon you will get called about 40% of the time (as long as he doesn't have Ahxh and occasionally he will check call a K high flush).

Do you now see how your 'chunk of equity' is looking pretty thin? The majority of the time you do hit your hand you are either getting check folded, call and lose and more importantly, you are drawing for a card whereby you are still very easily going to bet/raise/jam bluffs and get called and still lose.

Obviously his hand includes bluffs, but you now beat them. I think you are deluded if you think he is folding a flush. So why risk all this money on the turn to potentially get a river you may, or more then likely may not, be able to get him off AA/KK or a 5.

[pleno1]

indeed is a little bit fps.

i mean if you floated and the river was a random heart and you shoved it may not be that bad as he can potentially be going for value with a bunch of mid strength hands and thus AQ has no showdown and a semi important blockers (this is why floating AhQx would be better than AxQh otf.

However its 50nl and people want to go to showdown and decline from thin valuebet a lot of the time, even this bet otr is relatively thin for 50nl rather than being close to gto. I just made a video about it and will send it to you next week, but you need to think closer to actual ranges and population tendancies than trying to consider villains to have gto ranges by the time they get to the river.

disclaimer - im not saying it would be gto to bet non flush hands otr, just tackling that topic.

[pleno1]

John George Charles Black
Sometimes, I'm that good I actually scare myself....

come on then, hh for the fans.

[jgcblack]

John George Charles Black
Sometimes, I'm that good I actually scare myself....

come on then, hh for the fans.

facebook status = not about pokers.

not for public viewing otherwise id have put 'what' on fb

[Pinchop73]

facebook status = not about pokers.

not for public viewing otherwise id have put 'what' on fb

[kano]

I haven't just decided and it's not needlessly. It seems since people are giving him less attention he feels the need to post these ridiculous hands more often. Notice how he's threads used to get loads of feeback and now get almost none? I am only saying what everyone else is thinking. Also if he was actually interested in improving then he would respond to the people actually trying to help him out and ask him about the hand, instead of posting it and just leaving it and not replying.

I don't mean to be harsh, I wouldn't say anything if I thought they were generally being posted to try and learn. But to post the same sort of hands over and over again just comes across like he is trying to show off in a weird sort of way.

Or i was at work all day and went to sleep shortly after posting it....
I would have happily replied to all now.

I don't take offence at your comment... I understand where you're coming from.  However, I have never lied in any comment on blonde and if I say I thought I was bluffing (as ridic as it sounds) then that is what I thought at the time.  I know this hand looks very similar to a value shove I made the other day with AQ on the river.  However imo that hand was completely different (i had betting lead, ckb turn and he leads scary river..)

I like to try and play hands as well as I can and in the past I tried to over think things, in this hand however I thought the following.



Preflop
I have a good hand that I will 3bt some % but not 100%.  I call and will probably be ahead a lot of the time, this hand has a lot of value in dominating his range, but it also allows me to have a 'stronger hand' than I'm supposed to in some spots.

Flop
We have missed but have two overs and a potentially good bkdrfd.. I can make life difficult for his 'range' on most turn cards (when he has a gd hand) and have outs vs the top end of his range.  Remember though - we're still ahead of a lot of his hands so just a call.

Turn
We've now turned a chunk of equity vs his entire range.. if we river a flush and he pots it ill probably just call but when he checks a heart river we can get value some % of the time.  I don't think a lot of people will fold turn if we raise, they're more likely to bet then bet/fold ime.

River
We have now rivered top pair which is actually a little annoying.. we block QQ, and don't think he bets anything less than  or similar for value....

So now its more a case of how strong is our range vs his.  In my opinion we have more houses, more flushes and in general more 2p+ hands than he does.
So I turned a river top pair top kicker into a bluff and maybe I'm a nutcase but I think his call is absolutely terrible.
This is the first big bluff at 50nl over 10k hands, maybe I got it wrong and chose a worse spot than I thought.  It seems like it.

However, as someone who at over a small sample is managing to win at a pretty happy winrate I do not expect someone in my shoes to have a bluff here very often at all.


Flame away...

Most of the logic looks absolutely fine, but this is a 50nl hand against an unknown...you're overthinking it.

[jgcblack]

thanks kano... made sense at the time.

[AlexMartin]

If this hand is a bluffjam, what are we expecting him to b/f? players that betbetbet on this texture are generally very unbalanced, to the extent where they either have a full or are bluffing. Might be ok if you need a few more bluffs in your range, with idk AhJ but not this one. If hes cbetting this wide raise his cbets all day long btw. Dont hate the hand at all, getting there.

[jgcblack]

If this hand is a bluffjam, what are we expecting him to b/f? players that betbetbet on this texture are generally very unbalanced, to the extent where they either have a full or are bluffing. Might be ok if you need a few more bluffs in your range, with idk AhJ but not this one. If hes cbetting this wide raise his cbets all day long btw. Dont hate the hand at all, getting there.

thanks, definitely feels like a reasonable concept applied in an ok fashion.  But like you all said - "pick a better hand john".

I expect him to bet/fold everything AQ<Kxhh.  That is what I would do.  If I had 23hh here... I would be bet/folding that at these stakes.