Cheltenham 2014

[Marky147]

Nice write up Adz, cheers.

I have been nibbling away in bits on Irving for the Supreme so hoping for a decent run today. In the same race today I think it is interesting that Cup Final has been sent here, was fav to beat Irving first time out when they were both strongly fancied and got a nasty injury during the race. Would have been very easy to send it to win a tin pot race  and see what the handicapper did with a view to getting a decent mark but they have sent it str8 back in against good horses so it looks like they like him a lot. Could be one to keep an eye on for the future even if they do just give it an easy ish race today.

Sky are refunding all losing bets up to £25 (as a free bet) if Irving wins.

I read about Cup Final yesterday, and think I might divert my £25 onto his shoulders today.

[BigAdz]

Queen Mother

With The Chemist sounding less convincing about the participation of the great Sprinter Sacre, you feel that even if he turns up it will be even money that he runs his race or not.

If he is 90%,  that should be good enough. But there are enough if's that I think we should be looking round for some juicy ew value, as again this could cut up to a smaller field than the magic 8 starters.

Starting with Sire de Grugy who has done me and TFT several favours this year, including in the race where SS lost his unblemished chasing record.
He has undoubtedly been most impressive and deserves to be clear second rated in the 2m division, and looks, at face value, to have the measure of the rest of the field(a fit SS aside). However I get the impression The Queen Mum has not been the focus of Gary Moores attention, and picking up the rich Group 1 pickings in between has been equally satisfying to the team in West Sussex.

Let us not forget earlier on in the year he was also beaten by Kid Cassidy at Cheltenham, and his previous other effort at Cheltenham also saw him finish second. At skinny odds, any value has gone, and I also think a tough season on the heaviest ground of the year, may take its toll come March, on what looks like being ground nowhere near as soft/heavy as he has been encountering.

Benefficient is next in the betting, and he seems to be one of those horses that keeps winning, but the wins pass me by, and although he has some notable scalps, I get the feeling he has benefited from some below par efforts and a bit of luck from in running incidents. He has the measure of the rest of the Irish contingent, having beaten them all in The Dial a Bet Chase. I felt he was some fortunate to beat Hidden Cyclone in that race, but HC subsequent performance against Sire, makes me think the Irish are all much of a muchness, and beatable. In that group, I also include Arvika Legionnaire who has looked a bit soft to me when it comes to the top top races.

For me, the each way play, has to be Captain Conan.

Lasy year I felt he was potentially this years Annie Power. Much as I think AP can beat H. Fly, I fancy she may be sacrificed to run over 3m in the World Hurdle. She may well win, but she will have to go into unknown territory in order that Mullins can protect his beloved Fly from her.
Last year I was all over Captain Conan for the Arkle and his performances to me suggested the hill at Cheltenham over two miles were ideal for him. However, Henderson had the talking horse Simonsig for the Arkle, and nothing for the Jewson, so I feel CC wasn't placed to optimum effect, despite Hendo still winning the Arkle.

This year looks like CC is being primed for a proper spring festival campaign having had only one run so far in the Tingle Creek. There he jumped beautifully in the main and looked to these eyes to need the run when tiring coming to the last and being beaten by a race fit Sire de G just over seven lengths. As a seven year old, he is probably still got a smidgen of improvement in him. It was also at a time when The Chemists horses were running under a bit of a cloud.
All things considered I think CC can make up the 7 lengths on SDG and at the comparative prices of  5/2 or 12-1, I know which one strikes me as the better bet.GL

[Marky147]

It's like Pricewise for free!

Neptune next please  mate

[BigAdz]

Cheers mate

I think at this stage its very difficult to be too conclusive about any of the hurdle races especially with several trainers having so many multiple entries.

I'm probably only going to have time to do the GC write up later. I will also put up my fancies and bets for other races if you like? A couple of strong fancies in some non championship races.


NB, Interesting to see a current favourite Saphir du Rheu just get beat. Could be the fact a couple of tough races in tough winter ground have just bottomed him out for the year? Could be the theme for the next few weeks!

[Marky147]

Cheers mate

I think at this stage its very difficult to be too conclusive about any of the hurdle races especially with several trainers having so many multiple entries.

I'm probably only going to have time to do the GC write up later. I will also put up my fancies and bets for other races if you like? A couple of strong fancies in some non championship races.


NB, Interesting to see a current favourite Saphir du Rheu just get beat. Could be the fact a couple of tough races in tough winter ground have just bottomed him out for the year? Could be the theme for the next few weeks!

I'm tempted to chuck a score on Deputy Dan with BMU, but you've got Sherlock there, and the obligatory Mullins hotpot too.

SDR looked to be travelling well, but then emptied out pretty quick once off the bridle, and Choc had probably backed Kayf Moss

Glad that he's not going to run in the World now though, and I'll get my dough back from 365.

Bang them all up, I'm sure that I'm not the only one who follows you blind!

[Marky147]

Just looking at Oddschecker, everything is shortening for the QMCC today, and SS is drifting.

Anyone got a line to Hendo's yard?

[The Camel]

Tbh, I can't remember looking forward to a Festival less than this years.

Getting boring with 3 stables so utterly dominant.

[TightEnd]

Sprinter Sacre matched at 2-1 today?

[BigAdz]

Good day to post Queen Mum selection.

That 12-1 going fast!

[Marky147]

Market suspended on Betfair... Someone did their got a speculative oner on SS @ 60 before it went though.

Not running at festival.

[Omm]

Adz knew all along, well done mate very nice timing, 12-1 lovely!

Great write ups as well, must take a lot of time to write and must say I for one appreciate them so thanks very much. Very much in the black with your picks so happy just to back what you put up even if you don't have time for a write up, I know I know it's all free, right? Ha ha you have me in stitches every time you write it.

Good luck with your picks and thanks for all the hard work,one day you will be rewarded very very well.

[flushthemout]

Was a 3 day reg every year renting a house with pals, long hard slog to be honest, can study form all year round but just go with our gut feeling in a very competitive festival, don't enjoy the racing anymore espically on a cold March on the Hill, good luck to those going this year.

[Teacake]

Nice one Adzy, it's all about timing!

[BigAdz]

Gold Cup.

I am hoping this is the easiest one to solve.

Firstly, one of my favourite horses that has been talked up, is one I just cant have.
I backed captain Chris last year and he jumped right last year. Yes he has won an Arkle round here, yes he has been very impressive this year, and may have improved. The plain fact is that he still jumps right, and the further he goes the more pronounced he seems to do it, probably as he starts to tire, costing him valuable lengths as was seen in last years renewal, where for 3/4 of the race he went as well as anything imo. In the end, the constant loss of 1,2,3 lengths at every fence paid a hefty penalty and he trailed home in 6th. This year Tom Seagull feels he is jumping straighter. I beg to differ with the great man and think Johnson is just more aware of his quirks and keeps him tight up to the rail when going right handed. Even in his two last impressive wins he has almost gone through the right wing as he jumps to the right. I wish him well, but just cant back him this year.

Much as I admire Cue Card, I think the bare form of The Betfair Chase was more down to a lovely ride and some ring rusty opponents. In the King George Silviniaco Contini outstayed him and I see no reason to think CC can reverse this on the 14th March.

Last Installment is very interesting. His demolition of the usual Irish suspects and Tidal Bay was emphatic in the Irish Hennessey Gold Cup, but he was given plenty of rope on ground that suits. On official ratings he still has 20ish lb to make up on Bobs Worth, and if you take some straight line comparisons between his victory and Bobs Worth's in the Lexus you would say that LI could have his measure. I just don't think so. We also have to factor in that BW is a massively better horse at Cheltenham than he seems to be anywhere else. If you have a tasty 40-1 voucher. Brilliant. However the current best of makes no appeal to me.

For me the key is last years Gold Cup.
The three that interest me are S.Conti, Bobs Worth, and The Giant Bolster.
I consider this year to be a question of how much more did SC have under the bonnet when he fell? For sure he was going exceptionally well, but we have seen that many times before and a horse just empty up that hill. SC proved in the King George he had guts and heart as he dug deep to go past Cue Card. He also has an extra year under his belt, but i just can't help thinking against Bobs Worth he has an adversary who has liquid granite pumping through his horsey veins, and will always find that little bit more up the Cheltenham Eiger.
If SC was still 5-1s or better he looks an ew bet to nothing, but that has long gone. No I am with BW all the way, but I also think some amazing value remains with The Giant Bolster.

Second two years ago, he ran a mighty race finsihing 4th beaten just 15l after some very poor jumping in the last mile. His mistake 6 out cost him  plenty in both ground and probably reserves, but he just kept plugging away. This is a horse that just loves Cheltenham, and had almost be completely written off until his last race in the Argento, the final big trial race for the GC in England. In ground not expected to be in his favour he demolished the opposition and galloped all the way up the hill in top gear, proving he was back to his best. Behind him were two big talking horses in Harry Topper and Rocky Creek, both who were easily seen off up the hill when at the bottom of the hill, it looked anyones race.

To my mind, i see this race as being a real dogfight between S.Conti and Bobs Worth, which i see Bobs Worth winning, but every few years the Gold Cup throws up a winner that you think, why didn't I have a few bob on that, as all the clues were there. This year it could be The Giant Bolster, and at 25-1 I am having a good ew bet to go with my Bobs Worth win bet. GL

[BigAdz]

Quote from Stable Tour at Hendos today on Captain Conan

Captain Conan

I think he probably is a two-mile horse. We tried him over two and half, principally last year to try and keep out of Simonsig's way. We haven't run him since the Tingle Creek and he really looked as if he'd come to win the race two out and he didn't get home, but we've had a few issues and things that hopefully we've corrected. Things have gone quite well since then and though he hasn't had a race, he'll have a racecourse gallop over the weekend and if everything goes good then he comes in with a fighting chance. Sire De Grugy is now the horse to beat and this fellow has got the ability to do so.


I am giving myself a pat on the back for recognising a year before The Chemist, CC was a two miler