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Poker Hand Analysis
Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
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Topic: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well (Read 11552 times)
Pinchop73
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Posts: 1435
Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #30 on:
April 18, 2015, 11:09:47 PM »
Quote from: Tal on April 18, 2015, 11:01:35 PM
Am I not happy to win the pot here, risk free?
Would you not be happier to double through him instead of getting only some of his chips? Apologies if I'm coming across patronising here
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First they came for the nits, and I did not speak out because I was not a nit
Tal
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"He's always at it!"
Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #31 on:
April 18, 2015, 11:15:50 PM »
Quote from: George2Loose on April 18, 2015, 11:07:35 PM
Quote from: Tal on April 18, 2015, 11:06:03 PM
Quote from: George2Loose on April 18, 2015, 11:04:57 PM
I think you're over estimating the times he is r/folding here
Quite possibly, but isn't any time better than never?
Well I assume you're trying to make the best long term decision not just in 10/100 instances
That's a generous assumption, George. Thanks
Ok, so, let me flip this:
I check behind and the turn comes:
a)
and he bets 7k
b)
and he bets 7k
c)
, we check and the river is
, where he bets 7k
d)
, we check and the river comes
, where he checks
e)
, we check and the river comes
, where he checks.
My concern is he is mostly going to bet when he hits (so I am calling to fold to a bet quite. a lot) and he checks it down when I win (so I get no more off him).
By shoving, I get all the chips about half the time (approximately, at least) and occasionally at least he folds.
Do I want to fold top pair when it's likely ahead right now?
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
Tal
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Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #32 on:
April 18, 2015, 11:18:42 PM »
Quote from: Pinchop73 on April 18, 2015, 11:09:47 PM
Quote from: Tal on April 18, 2015, 11:01:35 PM
Am I not happy to win the pot here, risk free?
Would you not be happier to double through him instead of getting only some of his chips? Apologies if I'm coming across patronising here
I know what you're saying. I think he folds very little because of the range of hands I'm confident he is most likely to have. However, he might fold every once in a while and that's not a bad thing, doubling my stack without much trouble (assuming we win against the random hand UTG - he actually has 22 but we don't know that)
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
Pinchop73
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Posts: 1435
Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #33 on:
April 18, 2015, 11:24:47 PM »
He's taken the betting lead otf as it stands with our flop decision. When we call the effective stack to pot ratio will be like 0.5, he's literally never checking once we call flop.
Of your scenario's:
a) call and call river
b) one of the crap cards we have to reassess on, sometimes still stacking off
c) call river
d) 8k/f
e) we never check behind on this turn but if for whatever reason we did like a disconnection timeout then we bet 10k on the river
«
Last Edit: April 18, 2015, 11:27:08 PM by Pinchop73
»
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George2Loose
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Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #34 on:
April 18, 2015, 11:29:58 PM »
i think you're worrying too much about making decisions when u should be embracing them. It's what I enjoy most about poker
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Tal
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"He's always at it!"
Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #35 on:
April 18, 2015, 11:34:19 PM »
Sorry, Pichop. I misclicked on e). I'm definitely betting a blank turn.
Even I'm not that bad.
Quote from: George2Loose on April 18, 2015, 11:29:58 PM
i think you're worrying too much about making decisions when u should be embracing them. It's what I enjoy most about poker
I like decisions, too, but I also like mastering my own destiny and I didn't peg shoving as being worse than calling, so be the aggressor.
If that assessment was the mistake, that's fine and precisely why I put the hand up for discussion.
By the way, as hands I've posted on PHA go, this is going remarkably well. Normally, it's "what on Earth were you thinking?" (In before tikay)
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
George2Loose
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Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #36 on:
April 18, 2015, 11:37:04 PM »
i don't get what u mean by mastering your own destiny in this instance or in general?
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Tal
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"He's always at it!"
Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #37 on:
April 18, 2015, 11:42:58 PM »
Quote from: George2Loose on April 18, 2015, 11:37:04 PM
i don't get what u mean by mastering your own destiny in this instance or in general?
My general view is, if I think he has a draw and my hand isn't improving post-flop, getting the money in there and then seems best.
I'd check behind a lot more in cash I think. In a tournament situation like this, there's a big pot to be won and I am likely ahead.
What has been said here does suggest reflection on the above, but that is certainly in my head when I put my chips in.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
shipitgood
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Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #38 on:
April 19, 2015, 12:53:14 AM »
He now ...
(a 5k and five 1k chips, despite having other 5k chips available, if that's of any interest).
Your posts are always so detailed!
Just out of interest, can anything be taken from 2 chips instead of 6:)
Subconsciously he must be saying he wants more chips
«
Last Edit: April 19, 2015, 01:00:19 AM by shipitgood
»
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Tal
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"He's always at it!"
Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #39 on:
April 19, 2015, 01:02:55 AM »
Quote from: shipitgood on April 19, 2015, 12:53:14 AM
He now ...
(a 5k and five 1k chips, despite having other 5k chips available, if that's of any interest).
All about the detail;)
He was being tricky with those 6 chips:)
I like to give everyone as full a picture as I can.
Say what you see and all that.
Click to see full-size image.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
Tal
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Posts: 24288
"He's always at it!"
Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #40 on:
April 19, 2015, 01:12:53 AM »
Quote from: shipitgood on April 19, 2015, 12:53:14 AM
He now ...
(a 5k and five 1k chips, despite having other 5k chips available, if that's of any interest).
Your posts are always so detailed!
Just out of interest, can anything be taken from 2 chips instead of 6:)
Subconsciously he must be saying he wants more chips
There are a few interpretations (clearly, we have the benefit of hindsight, but anyway):
- more chips looks like a bigger raise, which carries the dominance his subconscious would be telling him to display (we all want to celebrate and promote our success; it's an animal instinct)*
- He might have intended to bet 9k instead and changed his mind as he was picking the 1k chips up
- He might have intended to bet 9k and actually picked up the wrong number but didn't want to look daft by putting one back
- He intended to raise and picked a handful of 1k chips, not caring how many
- He didn't want to put two 5k chips in because he wants to keep them (again, that's a pure subconscious thing when we look at it now with hindsight, because any logic tells you he wants to put all the chips in with this hand)
If I were going to choose one, knowing what I know now, I would say the first one. Could be any of them, though, in theory. Off the top of my head, that would be the list of possibles in general, when I see that happen.
*This is an exception to the broad rule that betting with smaller denomination chips is a sign of weakness. That can be quite an effective live tell, btw. But this is a situation where there are lots of physical chips in stacks, he's still betting with the second highest denomination chips and we also know he has the nuts!
«
Last Edit: April 19, 2015, 01:17:01 AM by Tal
»
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
shipitgood
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Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #41 on:
April 19, 2015, 01:38:58 AM »
sigh lol
When we call pre, SPR is really awkward. I don't know if there's any hands I would be calling in this spot pre.
On the flop, really like what G2L has said.
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Tal
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Posts: 24288
"He's always at it!"
Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #42 on:
April 19, 2015, 02:15:34 PM »
Quote from: shipitgood on April 19, 2015, 01:38:58 AM
sigh lol
Ah. Didn't realise you were being sarcastic. I believe in this stuff, despite "tells" being a dirty word in 2015. When you play in a casino, you're playing against people and people exhibit human characteristics. I know this falls on deaf ears these days, but there we are.
Quote from: shipitgood on April 19, 2015, 01:38:58 AM
When we call pre, SPR is really awkward. I don't know if there's any hands I would be calling in this spot pre.
Could you expand on this, please? Why is my SPR bad? Playable hand in position, where checking it down more likely than normal.
Are you saying the call is wrong and I should fold? Raise? Fold or raise but never call?
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
George2Loose
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Posts: 15127
Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #43 on:
April 19, 2015, 02:30:47 PM »
Quote from: Tal on April 19, 2015, 01:02:55 AM
Quote from: shipitgood on April 19, 2015, 12:53:14 AM
He now ...
(a 5k and five 1k chips, despite having other 5k chips available, if that's of any interest).
All about the detail;)
He was being tricky with those 6 chips:)
I like to give everyone as full a picture as I can.
Say what you see and all that.
Click to see full-size image.
Surprised they allowed Hand Job on catchphrase?
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Ole Ole Ole Ole!
SuuPRlim
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Posts: 10437
Re: Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well
«
Reply #44 on:
April 19, 2015, 02:53:51 PM »
Like a check on the flop. We're not really getting value of anything (QJ aside) because we defo have a good hand as we are betting into a dry side pot.
We don't really need to protect against that much either, we don't wanna see an Ace a Ten or a Queen on the turn but that's pretty much it - I wouldn't be worrying too much about hearts either.
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