SNG situation..

[seamus]

All in on hand strength

A9 three handed is as strong as AA on a full table / Say you were just before the bubble. Would you fold AA in the SB against a big stack BB for the same reason.

I guess that given your hesitation the clock folded you.

[SupaMonkey]

Your 1.2k does not gurantee you second place.
Big blind actually has a greater than 50-50 chance of surviving the next hand. 50-50 if it was guarnateed that you would fold and big stack would make up the blinds, thats not guaranteed though.

The possibility of you being dealt a premium enough hand to play and contribute to a greater likelyhood of big blind being eliminated (where he can still win the pot) is more than negated by the chance that the large stack might give him a walk. (as he wins the 1k chips 100% of the time when this happens)

I would play the next hand blind (as much as you can in online poker ). Limp and call any preflop raise.

[byronkincaid]

It's +2.8% against 100% calling range. +2.9% against 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs. Very easy push.

[the bus]

Where does the +2.8% come from?

[byronkincaid]

LOL u play sng's for a living and don't know? Yeah right

[the bus]

I seriously don't. I thought A9 is 60% to hold up against a random 2 card holding.

[byronkincaid]

2.8% of the prize pool.

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/

[byronkincaid]

Yeah so I'm a donk who can't even use simple software properly.

errr putting the correct hand into sng pt if BB is calling with any 2 then it's a -EV push you are losing -0.3% of the prize pool. To get it to +EV you need to put BB on a calling range of 87% (which is 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,92+,84o+,82s+,74o+,72s+,64o+,63s+,54o,53s+,43s) or less.

sng pt doesn't work great with tiny stacks I'm afraid. However it's saying if we put BB on 100% calling range we should only be pushing 88+.

sorry for the false info.

[SupaMonkey]

I'm sorry if i seemed argumentative earlier, that wasn't my intention. I've had a long think about this.

I went to the wizard of odds and he says that A-9o will be best in a two handed game 59.45% of the time and will draw 2.65% of the time (=62.1%).

Using my suggestion, all three of you would be in the pot and would each expect to win it 1/3rd of the time.
Of the times the short stack wins, you will win the side pot half the time. You can then say it is likely that you will be allin next hand (it's your BB) and win that half the time.
I realise these are simplistic assumptions but what else can i do.

Therefore,
1/6th of the time you will lose both the side pot and the main pot, and
1/12th of the time you will lose the main pot, win the side pot and then lose the allin on the next hand.

Hence, i reckon you have a 3/12 (25%) chance of coming 3rd using this method. If you choose to ignore what is going to happen the following hand (this hand plus 2) then you can say 33% of the time you will be worse off.
By lumping it in with the A-9o you are giving yourself a 37.9% chance of finishing 3rd.

Pls feel free to pick holes in this.

[the bus]

Argumentative, never.

It's all in the spirit of good debate. If no-one ever took a contrary opinion we'd never get anything hashed out.

The forum would just be all well done and happy birthday.

Anyway, in the spirit of debate, you say by lumping it in with A9 you're giving yourself a 37.9% chance of finishing 3rd. I'll attempt to show that you'll finish 3rd a lot more often than that (but it's still the right move)

First of all a wee hole to pick, 59.45% to win the pot, 2.65% of the time to split, means that you will get something back 62.1% of the time. However your equity will only be  60.775% (adding half of the split pot % rather than 100%)

That all doesn't really matter though, for the sake of simplicity I'll say A9 will win 60% of the time.

So 40 times out of 100 you'll finish 3rd right there (40 x 100%)
60 times out of 100 you'll have 3k chips vs your opponents 10k and 600

This is where the estimate comes in, I think in this situation, you'll still place 3rd 15% of the time.


So 40 times out of 100 you'll finish 3rd right there (40 x 100%)
60 times out of 100 you'll finish 3rd 15% of the time (60 x 15%)

To get a weighted average of the amount of times you'd finish 3rd you'll add it all up and divide by 100.

40 x 100 = 4000
60 x 15 = 900

4900/100 = 49%

So I reckon you'll be finishing 3rd around half the time (49%) when pushing.

Its the much higher chance of finishing 1st place that pushing gives you that makes it the right move though. See previous post for (perhaps poorly laid out) explanation as to why.

Some computer program puts it at +2.8% ($53) of the prize pool.
I get it as +1.1% ($20)

It's maybe right but I don't care, I still don't like it for reasons I shant get into.

[Wardonkey]

Push.

[the bus]

Aaaayyyyyaaarrrrr

I love it when Wardonkey agrees.

It means I'm probably right. 

[The Camel]

Well, I did push.

My main fault in poker is my inability to make EV calculations quickly and accurately at the table.

I felt it very likely he would call if I push (I guestimated he would call with 75% of holdings).

My instinct said I should push.

So I pushed.

He called with A2.

Horray!

He hit a deuce.

Boo!

Nice to know I was right!

Interesting thread, cheers guys!

[ifm]

Great thread, i love the indepth stuff.