River bet size?

[david3103]

DTD £100 last night


***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, July 15, 10:48:58 ET 2013
Table Dusk 100 ONLINE Day 1a  808656826 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 76531 ) - VPIP: 29, PFR: 15, 3B: 3, AF: 1.8, Hands: 96
Seat 2: Player2 ( 33080 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 11, AF: 4.0, Hands: 107
Seat 3: Player3 ( 133914 ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 2, AF: 2.0, Hands: 110
Seat 4: Player4 ( 31130 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 13, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 61
Seat 5: Player5 ( 67015 ) - VPIP: 25, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4.4, Hands: 188
Seat 8: Player8 ( 111618 ) - VPIP: 40, PFR: 26, 3B: 12, AF: 2.2, Hands: 121
Seat 9: Hero ( 80669 ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 2.1, Hands: 10937
Seat 10: Player10 ( 54825 ) - VPIP: 29, PFR: 15, 3B: 3, AF: 1.8, Hands: 96
Player5 posts ante of [300].
Player8 posts ante of [300].
Hero posts ante of [300].
Player10 posts ante of [300].
Player1 posts ante of [300].
Player2 posts ante of [300].
Player3 posts ante of [300].
Player4 posts ante of [300].
Player5 posts small blind [1000].
Player8 posts big blind [2000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [  As ]
Hero raises [4000]
Player10 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 folds
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Player5 folds
Player8 calls [2000]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
Player8 checks
Hero bets [6000]
Player8 calls [6000]
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
Player8 checks
Hero bets [11700]
Player8 calls [11700]
** Dealing River ** [ ]
Player8

How much?

[OverTheBorder]

Afraid to say what I would do hear as it probably not orthodox, I probably check/call.  I think his hand seems to be weighted towards J10 and spade combos which means a chunk of his range here is folding river.  I check to him to enduce the bluff with the missed draw.

[pleno1]

Yeh really like checking probably raising depending on size though.

[Honeybadger]

Afraid to say what I would do hear as it probably not orthodox, I probably check/call.  I think his hand seems to be weighted towards J10 and spade combos which means a chunk of his range here is folding river.  I check to him to enduce the bluff with the missed draw.

That is a more interesting line with a weaker hand, like 9x for example. With a hand as strong as AA we can get in a clear value bet. Yes, I realise that opponent often has a missed draw and might bluff when checked to. But plenty of other times opponent has a marginal made hand himself that will not bet when checked to, but will call if you bet. The fact that the flop is so dynamic/drawy works both ways. Your opponent can call down on the river lighter because hero might be betting a draw. For example, hero will likely barrel three streets here with something like AsQs or KsJs or even JhTh, right? And even if hero never would do this, villain likely perceives that he would... which means he is likely to call the river with a good chunk of marginal hands that he would just check back with if hero does not bet.

[Pinchop73]

Rep the wiff so he can don his cape, 27850

[BulldozerD]

we are acting last on the river, so I PRESUME the guy in the BB has checked a third time.
I'd definitely bet for value, probably about 25k

[wazz]

We unfortunately have a reasonably wide value-range here - boats, straights, trips and overpairs, with overpairs constituting the majority of it, and it's an 'obvious' bluff spot where tons of stuff missed, and we have a few hands we're going to want to check back like 66-9x. We're looking for a relatively thin call ourselves with 66-9x and sometimes a passively played overpair. As active as he is - VPIP of 42  and 3b of 12, I don't think he's going to have many of those and will likely have either air or a fairly weak 2p. So we just need to ensure we get a call as wide as possible and I think he does that most vs a small bet and just meh gives up the pot unless he has reason to think we're bluffing a lot.

I would size the flop similarly big because it's so drawy and the turn similarly as it's not the greatest card for us to rep and drawing hands won't call as big bets (incorrectly) than small bets.

[TL900]

34k, 40/26 over 120 hands doesnt seem like the type thats gona hero fold 9x especially when FD/JT missed

[BALOTELLI9O]

Bomb the river. I would also bomb the flop and turn so I could ship the river without over betting it. If hes calling 6k on the flop and 12k on the turn he's calling 10k on the flop and 25k on the turn. His most likely hand is some sort of draw or pair+draw. The board is so draw heavy I am charging max value for him to chase whatever he has. Also if his most likely hand is some kind of draw his probable line will be call/call/fold on this board, so you might as well get as much as you can for the 2 streets he calls.

River I am betting huge, probably over bet shipping. I mean he's either calling or he isn't. All missed draws are going to fold to any bet anyway so you might as well go for max value and try to get paid when he does have some sort of pair.

[wazz]

River I am betting huge, probably over bet shipping. I mean he's either calling or he isn't. All missed draws are going to fold to any bet anyway so you might as well go for max value and try to get paid when he does have some sort of pair.

That's a little too simplistic. People who play bad still think about what they're doing, even if they have faults in their thought process.