Bad Beat Maths- Need Help!!

[doubleup]

Thanks for the pointers-  FYI it is for a free promotion and the obscene amount is £1,000,000. I just need to convince someone how unlikely it is to get the go ahead!

I know it sounds ridiculous but 20,000,000-1 might not be long enough and they may want the criteria tightening. If you divide by the 10,000 qualifying cash hands per month expected, and the fact they want to run it for 3 months, we suddenly get down to as low as 666-1 which is pretty low to give away a million for nothing!

Any other input gratefully appreciated!

Why don't you just insure against it?

A policy would be relatively cheap, then you don't have to worry about it.

No chance of getting that insured due to moral hazard.

[ThudNBlunder]

Thanks for the pointers-  FYI it is for a free promotion and the obscene amount is £1,000,000. I just need to convince someone how unlikely it is to get the go ahead!

I know it sounds ridiculous but 20,000,000-1 might not be long enough and they may want the criteria tightening. If you divide by the 10,000 qualifying cash hands per month expected, and the fact they want to run it for 3 months, we suddenly get down to as low as 666-1 which is pretty low to give away a million for nothing!

Any other input gratefully appreciated!

Why don't you just insure against it?

A policy would be relatively cheap, then you don't have to worry about it.

That's the route I'm trying, and you'd be surprised at how expensive it is- I know I was! They're talking about 20% of the sum insured as a premium. If I can't get them down significantly then I have to convince a few people that it's worth us taking the risk.

[MereNovice]

Thanks for the pointers-  FYI it is for a free promotion and the obscene amount is £1,000,000. I just need to convince someone how unlikely it is to get the go ahead!

I know it sounds ridiculous but 20,000,000-1 might not be long enough and they may want the criteria tightening. If you divide by the 10,000 qualifying cash hands per month expected, and the fact they want to run it for 3 months, we suddenly get down to as low as 666-1 which is pretty low to give away a million for nothing!

Any other input gratefully appreciated!

Why don't you just insure against it?

A policy would be relatively cheap, then you don't have to worry about it.

That's the route I'm trying, and you'd be surprised at how expensive it is- I know I was! They're talking about 20% of the sum insured as a premium. If I can't get them down significantly then I have to convince a few people that it's worth us taking the risk.

I'll do it for 10%.

[doubleup]

Thanks for the pointers-  FYI it is for a free promotion and the obscene amount is £1,000,000. I just need to convince someone how unlikely it is to get the go ahead!

I know it sounds ridiculous but 20,000,000-1 might not be long enough and they may want the criteria tightening. If you divide by the 10,000 qualifying cash hands per month expected, and the fact they want to run it for 3 months, we suddenly get down to as low as 666-1 which is pretty low to give away a million for nothing!

Any other input gratefully appreciated!

Why don't you just insure against it?

A policy would be relatively cheap, then you don't have to worry about it.

That's the route I'm trying, and you'd be surprised at how expensive it is- I know I was! They're talking about 20% of the sum insured as a premium. If I can't get them down significantly then I have to convince a few people that it's worth us taking the risk.

They are charging so much because of the possibility of insider collusion - presumably the entire hand would have to be on camera and taped?

Why are you doing the promo?  If it's to increase player numbers you must have some idea about the extra profit generated?  Do you really think that you will get significantly more players by offering a £1m prize than a £100k prize?

[EvilPie]

Thanks for the pointers-  FYI it is for a free promotion and the obscene amount is £1,000,000. I just need to convince someone how unlikely it is to get the go ahead!

I know it sounds ridiculous but 20,000,000-1 might not be long enough and they may want the criteria tightening. If you divide by the 10,000 qualifying cash hands per month expected, and the fact they want to run it for 3 months, we suddenly get down to as low as 666-1 which is pretty low to give away a million for nothing!

Any other input gratefully appreciated!

There's other things to take in to account as well as the insane one off odds. For example the calculated odds don't take in to consideration the fact that when the perfect hand occurs player A might have folded his pair of twos, threes or fours without even seeing a flop.......

[MereNovice]

Also, the number of players that take part in each hand is rather important.

[AlcaPwn]

Why are you doing the promo?  If it's to increase player numbers you must have some idea about the extra profit generated?  Do you really think that you will get significantly more players by offering a £1m prize than a £100k prize?

This is the key question surely rather then what the odds are.  If we are talking a £200k insurance premium then you need to generate at least this in extra rake for a freerole.  If you predict an extra £250k rake then you are in profit by £50k and if you only predict £150k extra rake then you are down £50k.  I am calculating this all in reference to the cost of the policy as I don't see any business wanting to take this risk uninsured unless you are talking significant extra profit (i.e. rake increases by at least half the cost of the BBJ).  When you start to look at it like this we are talking some significant numbers.  

Also, I'm not sure of your role in this but reading between the lines I am assuming you are the card room manager/supervisor.  If you do convince your employers to assume the risk uninsured and the BBJ drops (despite the apparent long odds these things can happen!) what sort of heat this will bring to you and your position?  Worth considering when you put your neck on the line.  That's not to say don't take risks, but always consider the risk v reward for you personally.

[ThudNBlunder]

Why are you doing the promo?  If it's to increase player numbers you must have some idea about the extra profit generated?  Do you really think that you will get significantly more players by offering a £1m prize than a £100k prize?

This is the key question surely rather then what the odds are.  If we are talking a £200k insurance premium then you need to generate at least this in extra rake for a freerole.  If you predict an extra £250k rake then you are in profit by £50k and if you only predict £150k extra rake then you are down £50k.  I am calculating this all in reference to the cost of the policy as I don't see any business wanting to take this risk uninsured unless you are talking significant extra profit (i.e. rake increases by at least half the cost of the BBJ).  When you start to look at it like this we are talking some significant numbers.  

Also, I'm not sure of your role in this but reading between the lines I am assuming you are the card room manager/supervisor.  If you do convince your employers to assume the risk uninsured and the BBJ drops (despite the apparent long odds these things can happen!) what sort of heat this will bring to you and your position?  Worth considering when you put your neck on the line.  That's not to say don't take risks, but always consider the risk v reward for you personally.

I'm managing to get the cost of the quote down so it's looking a lot more likely. Personally I think we should accept the risk- we are in the gambling business after all!! Getting the odds worked out is all to strengthen my negotiating position.

My only nightmare would be if the BBJ dropped quickly. The positive publicity generated both locally and nationally would be valuable but it would be hard for me to argue it was a million pounds worth! It wouldn't cost me my job but it would make it a lot more difficult- I'd struggle to get another promotion off the ground and I'd probably have to start filling in paperwork if I gave away a cup of tea!

[mulhuzz]

Why are you doing the promo?  If it's to increase player numbers you must have some idea about the extra profit generated?  Do you really think that you will get significantly more players by offering a £1m prize than a £100k prize?

This is the key question surely rather then what the odds are.  If we are talking a £200k insurance premium then you need to generate at least this in extra rake for a freerole.  If you predict an extra £250k rake then you are in profit by £50k and if you only predict £150k extra rake then you are down £50k.  I am calculating this all in reference to the cost of the policy as I don't see any business wanting to take this risk uninsured unless you are talking significant extra profit (i.e. rake increases by at least half the cost of the BBJ).  When you start to look at it like this we are talking some significant numbers.  

Also, I'm not sure of your role in this but reading between the lines I am assuming you are the card room manager/supervisor.  If you do convince your employers to assume the risk uninsured and the BBJ drops (despite the apparent long odds these things can happen!) what sort of heat this will bring to you and your position?  Worth considering when you put your neck on the line.  That's not to say don't take risks, but always consider the risk v reward for you personally.

I'm managing to get the cost of the quote down so it's looking a lot more likely. Personally I think we should accept the risk- we are in the gambling business after all!! Getting the odds worked out is all to strengthen my negotiating position.

My only nightmare would be if the BBJ dropped quickly. The positive publicity generated both locally and nationally would be valuable but it would be hard for me to argue it was a million pounds worth! It wouldn't cost me my job but it would make it a lot more difficult- I'd struggle to get another promotion off the ground and I'd probably have to start filling in paperwork if I gave away a cup of tea!

surely your boss also knows how odds work?

oh wait, he works in gaming, so probably not.

[Doobs]

Surely if you are risking a million, you need to do a bit more due dilligence than asking on here.  Which was the key word in the phrase "gambling business" again?

What happens when the players miss the small print and get something close?  Can you imagine how grouchy they will be after hitting quad vs the j high flush. Have you consider the potential for negative publicity as well as the potential for positive publicity?

[arbboy]

Why are you doing the promo?  If it's to increase player numbers you must have some idea about the extra profit generated?  Do you really think that you will get significantly more players by offering a £1m prize than a £100k prize?

This is the key question surely rather then what the odds are.  If we are talking a £200k insurance premium then you need to generate at least this in extra rake for a freerole.  If you predict an extra £250k rake then you are in profit by £50k and if you only predict £150k extra rake then you are down £50k.  I am calculating this all in reference to the cost of the policy as I don't see any business wanting to take this risk uninsured unless you are talking significant extra profit (i.e. rake increases by at least half the cost of the BBJ).  When you start to look at it like this we are talking some significant numbers.  

Also, I'm not sure of your role in this but reading between the lines I am assuming you are the card room manager/supervisor.  If you do convince your employers to assume the risk uninsured and the BBJ drops (despite the apparent long odds these things can happen!) what sort of heat this will bring to you and your position?  Worth considering when you put your neck on the line.  That's not to say don't take risks, but always consider the risk v reward for you personally.

I'm managing to get the cost of the quote down so it's looking a lot more likely. Personally I think we should accept the risk- we are in the gambling business after all!! Getting the odds worked out is all to strengthen my negotiating position.

My only nightmare would be if the BBJ dropped quickly. The positive publicity generated both locally and nationally would be valuable but it would be hard for me to argue it was a million pounds worth! It wouldn't cost me my job but it would make it a lot more difficult- I'd struggle to get another promotion off the ground and I'd probably have to start filling in paperwork if I gave away a cup of tea!

I will have an even grand with you it will cost you your job if it cops without you insuring it.

[ThudNBlunder]

Surely if you are risking a million, you need to do a bit more due dilligence than asking on here.  Which was the key word in the phrase "gambling business" again?

What happens when the players miss the small print and get something close?  Can you imagine how grouchy they will be after hitting quad vs the j high flush. Have you consider the potential for negative publicity as well as the potential for positive publicity?

There's a lot more due diligence Doobs, but my head was exploding with the maths and I know there a lot of very smart people on here that can give me pointers. In order to even get the insurance considered I have to be able to demonstrate the odds and there simply aren't 'charts' out there for underwriters to consult. They'll take my workings and no doubt pull them apart so we can come up with some figures. The due diligence in other areas- extra cameras, staff checks, mikes, cards etc- are extremely easy compared to the maths!!

If I get it off the ground the promotion will be widely publicised and the criteria explained clearer. 'Near Misses' are part of it and would happen no matter what the qualifying conditions were. I've been at a table where a guy thought he had won a BBJ losing with quads because he didn't realise his kicker didn't play and both cards had to. He caused a hell of a fuss, and maybe the casino lost one customer, but it was a minor blip in the greater scheme of things.

[ThudNBlunder]

Why are you doing the promo?  If it's to increase player numbers you must have some idea about the extra profit generated?  Do you really think that you will get significantly more players by offering a £1m prize than a £100k prize?

This is the key question surely rather then what the odds are.  If we are talking a £200k insurance premium then you need to generate at least this in extra rake for a freerole.  If you predict an extra £250k rake then you are in profit by £50k and if you only predict £150k extra rake then you are down £50k.  I am calculating this all in reference to the cost of the policy as I don't see any business wanting to take this risk uninsured unless you are talking significant extra profit (i.e. rake increases by at least half the cost of the BBJ).  When you start to look at it like this we are talking some significant numbers.  

Also, I'm not sure of your role in this but reading between the lines I am assuming you are the card room manager/supervisor.  If you do convince your employers to assume the risk uninsured and the BBJ drops (despite the apparent long odds these things can happen!) what sort of heat this will bring to you and your position?  Worth considering when you put your neck on the line.  That's not to say don't take risks, but always consider the risk v reward for you personally.

I'm managing to get the cost of the quote down so it's looking a lot more likely. Personally I think we should accept the risk- we are in the gambling business after all!! Getting the odds worked out is all to strengthen my negotiating position.

My only nightmare would be if the BBJ dropped quickly. The positive publicity generated both locally and nationally would be valuable but it would be hard for me to argue it was a million pounds worth! It wouldn't cost me my job but it would make it a lot more difficult- I'd struggle to get another promotion off the ground and I'd probably have to start filling in paperwork if I gave away a cup of tea!

I will have an even grand with you it will cost you your job if it cops without you insuring it.

Taken