Bad Beat Maths- Need Help!!

[ThudNBlunder]

Open plea for some help, and promise no comments about maths geeks!

I'm trying to tie down the odds for a VERY specific bad beat situation and could do with some pointers on how to run the maths.

The qualifier is quad twos through eights being beaten by a queen high straight flush or better. Both players must use both hole cards, the losing hand must contain a pair.Full ring game with a minimum 4 players being dealt in. I'm trying to work out the odds on it happening on a single deal and my brain is about to explode.......

Anyone able to point me in the right direction? All help appreciated!

[George2Loose]

What are the odds of getting my total reward card back? About the same odds?

[ThudNBlunder]

Hi George- been back a week let me catch up!!! You know I'll sort you out anyway.....

[strak33]

Come back when you have it worked out. Everyone is looking forward to the story...

[ThudNBlunder]

Lol- not setting up a bad beat story, this is for a bad beat promotion where an obscene amount of cash will be given away. Need to work out the maths of it before I get the go ahead though.

[EvilPie]

This is a decent place to start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

ANY straight flush is 72000:1

ANY quads is 4000:1

Both happening at the same time is (4000 x 72000) : 1

Add in all your other qualifying criteria and no matter how obscene the amount is it really doesn't matter as it just ain't going to happen mate.

The DTD bad beat jackpot struggles to get won and that's only AAA88 or better getting beaten by anything else.

If you run this as anything but a free promotion you're taking the piss to be honest.

[EvilPie]

Just stumbled across this:



Think you should insist that Ray Romano is sat at the table as well just to be safe.

[david3103]

This is a decent place to start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

ANY straight flush is 72000:1

ANY quads is 4000:1

Both happening at the same time is (4000 x 72000) : 1

Add in all your other qualifying criteria and no matter how obscene the amount is it really doesn't matter as it just ain't going to happen mate.

The DTD bad beat jackpot struggles to get won and that's only AAA88 or better getting beaten by anything else.

If you run this as anything but a free promotion you're taking the piss to be honest.

Those are the probabilities for a hand made up of five cards only. Assuming this is Hold em the odds shorten when we have seven cards to play with.
Royal Flush is now 1 in 31,000
Quads is a massive 1 in 594

The bad beat scenario envisaged in OP is still pretty unlikely though.


Btw whoever it is that keeps saying " it's really hard to make a pair" should study these pages. It's actually harder to not make a pair.

[OverTheBorder]

If you hit quad and lose to a royal you don't win? Also you have quad and lose to a 10 high straight flush you don't win?

Seems a bit over complicated.

[RED-DOG]

If you hit quad and lose to a royal you don't win? Also you have quad and lose to a 10 high straight flush you don't win?

Seems a bit over complicated.

It can't be that complicated. You've just explained it perfectly. 

[doubleup]

As a rough guide to how unlikely this is, if you were to deal out 9 cards it would be nearly 29 million to one to deal a qualifying 4 of a kind plus a qualifying str8 flush from the 9.

So as others have said its so unlikely as to be a complete rip-off if extra rake is being charged - and if it comes up almost def it's as a result of cheating 

[david3103]

As a rough guide to how unlikely this is, if you were to deal out 9 cards it would be nearly 29 million to one to deal a qualifying 4 of a kind plus a qualifying str8 flush from the 9.

So as others have said its so unlikely as to be a complete rip-off if extra rake is being charged - and if it comes up almost def it's as a result of cheating 

Live poker is rigged

[david3103]

Btw, the Wizard of Odds looked at the specific case of quad Aces v RF and arrived at 1 in 439million.
If we accept that then can we just extend the case to seven different sets of quads, and three different straight flushes that's 21 in 439million, or 1 in 20,904,762

http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/215/

[ThudNBlunder]

Thanks for the pointers-  FYI it is for a free promotion and the obscene amount is £1,000,000. I just need to convince someone how unlikely it is to get the go ahead!

I know it sounds ridiculous but 20,000,000-1 might not be long enough and they may want the criteria tightening. If you divide by the 10,000 qualifying cash hands per month expected, and the fact they want to run it for 3 months, we suddenly get down to as low as 666-1 which is pretty low to give away a million for nothing!

Any other input gratefully appreciated!

[tikay]

Thanks for the pointers-  FYI it is for a free promotion and the obscene amount is £1,000,000. I just need to convince someone how unlikely it is to get the go ahead!

I know it sounds ridiculous but 20,000,000-1 might not be long enough and they may want the criteria tightening. If you divide by the 10,000 qualifying cash hands per month expected, and the fact they want to run it for 3 months, we suddenly get down to as low as 666-1 which is pretty low to give away a million for nothing!

Any other input gratefully appreciated!

Why don't you just insure against it?

A policy would be relatively cheap, then you don't have to worry about it.