Beginners Q

[suzanne]

Oh yes I have been caught out many a time on that one where the bluffer hits a hand when i go all in...doooh. I still think the stats dont really count in some games...btw im talking stt/mtt i agree in rng the odds will win at the end of the day thats why i dont do so good on them lol. Kids have now got girt big L R painted to the bottom of their shoes tikey so no problem there now. LMAO

[suzanne]

I see what you are saying Baron but low stacked with JJ and going all in, guy calls with AK...who has the better odds?? Im guessing me with JJ but his AK might hit so your odds dont mean nowt in that situation its just bingo and crossing fingers

[ifm]

you are a slight favourite against 2 overcards but we aren't talking about allin preflop.
We are talking post flop, what are your odds if the flop is A 6 3 with your jacks?
or 6 2 9?

[suzanne]

No idea....with A 6 3 i would put a feeler bet and sit on it and probably still get stung...6 2 9 i would go for it and probably get done on 2 pair its like i said i can see where odds would help but i feel IMO gut instinct is more important...btw its probably why i loose a lot hahaha

[ifm]

ok then gut instinct.........

you hold   

flop is  Ah   

your oppo puts you allin and you read him for the ace (you know he has it).......do you call?

[suzanne]

Yes i would..but then im a fish...im thinking 9 or club so yes i would risk it...would that be wrong? what r the stats?

[ifm]

actually 9 clubs 3 kings and 3 nines=15 outs.............x 4 = 60%

You are favourite so it's pretty much automatic, though only if you know your rough odds.
Reading players is important but having all the information you can get is doubly so.
I'm not having a pop at you Suzanne just trying to help

[suzanne]

I know you r not having a pop..im actually interested but was kinda put off the game after reading SS1 and i lost a bomb so decided to play my own game. That hand would obviously be a gamble as ur man next door has AA and 60% is only a slightly better odds, but i would be inclined to play it anyway just for the thrill coz isnt that what is all about?

[tikay]

Suzanne. SS1 does not suit everyone. I'd go so far as to say it does not suit many.

Just enjoy your poker. Watch & learn. Ask questiions all day on here - the place is full of peeps like ifm who actually ENJOY helping other players learn the ropes.

You'll be alright. Trust me. I'm old.

[suzanne]

AWWWWW ((((((tikey))))) ya wee darlin, thats what i do now...I enjoy it and take the bad beats and smile (not). I enjoy convos like this where opinions are discussed and thank you Ian for teaching me right from wrong ;-)

[Ironside]

AWWWWW ((((((tikey))))) ya wee darlin, thats what i do now...I enjoy it and take the bad beats and smile (not). I enjoy convos like this where opinions are discussed and thank you Ian for teaching me right from wrong ;-)

how do you know it a bad beat if you dont know the odds?

[TightEnd]

Suzanne, remember the rule of four tikay told you about........

on the flop you have 4 to a flush, so 9 outs 9x4=36% to win or c2-1

Ifm also mentioned at the end of a post that the rule of four becomes the rule of two on the turn. You might easily have missed this.


so, say you have

 

and the flop is 

you need a diamond to hit the nut flush....It is 9 diamonds you need

the turn is 

you still need 1 of 9 diamonds now multiply your outs by 2: 9x2=18% or around 5-1 to hit your card


rule of 4 on the flop
rule of 2 on the turn

If you are 5-1 against hitting with 1 card to come theroetically the pot needs to be offering you these odds to justify a call

so say there is 10,000 in the pot, your opponent bets 5,000...so you have to put in 5,000 to win 15,000....so 3-1 is less than 5-1 and the theory says, avoid



(However at this point you have to consider stack sizes, blind levels and IMPLIED ODDS

Implied odds...you might not have pot odds now but what happens if you hit?....you might win more money from another bet on the river so this would make your odds up making a call on the turn worthwhile

Let us know when you are ready for this!!!)

[danmonkey]

Its important to be able to assign a range of hands to your opponent(s) as well.

In Tightend's example the  of diamonds may reasonably have more outs than the 9 mentioned. 
If your opponent is holding an overpair in the QQ-99 range you may have 6 more outs (3 aces and 3 kings).  There is always a chance that they are holding AA or KK or even 88,44 or 22.  Obviously the betting and your experience of playing this table will help with this. 

You may be able to say that you have 9 full outs for the flush plus say that 2 times out of 3 an ace or king may be good enough and therefore give yourself 4 more outs from the king or ace falling.  This could turn a fold into a call dependant on pot odds.  On the other hand if you have a read which tells you your opponent almost definitely has AA or KK then you can reduce your outs to 9. 

Hope this is useful.

[suzanne]

Good point Ironside  Okay I read TightEnds and Dans posts about six times and I think I have sussed out the how the odds work now ie on the flush draw. Would the possiblity of hitting AK not be counted as an out then? The flop mentioned is not a good one so you would have to think what has this guy got..88, 44, 22 or 2 pair, he may also be a fish and drawing for a flush too or bluffing if he is low stacked. Also position of the caller would make a big difference, if the guy is BB he possibly got lucky with 84 82, if he has bought into the pot preflop then you got to put him on over pair, A+. If he has A+ I have him beat/drawn so flush apart I would be likely to play the AK and hope for a catch with the flush as a bonus. The odds would suggest this is not a good hand to play but I probably would. So who else would play it??

[TightEnd]

me and my big mouth!

I only put the flop cards up at random to include two diamonds, i wasn't suggesting you should or shouldn't play it. Sorry!


As Dan says above, any A Or any K may be an out too.