Tbh I don't know why I keep biting, but I am in the sort of mood recently where I just seem unable to let sloppy thinking and contradictory arguments go. I know I am going to come across as bitchy and pedantic, but actually I am just trying to be precise and rigorous. Honestly I am not trying to be mean and aggressive with my points, I just can't think of a nice kind way to say them. Please don't be offended pal...
I was assuming the raise wasnt AI and therefore the point is irrelevant
Please explain WHY this would make the point irrelevant. And also - being pedantic - you must surely admit that the quote I gave
does show you inferring that we should not raise the turn because it might lead to us being stacked if villain hits his draw? You had denied saying this...
1. I have - its his calling range - I have just omitted terrible flush draws which he may have
Actually, you definitely
had not stated (until this quote) whether the range you gave was supposed to be his calling range or his donking range. In fact, reading your other comments I am not 100% sure that you actually
did mean this range as a calling range... for example, you give loads of Kx hands in this range, but then later say that you think villain will fold most of these hands to a raise. Can you see why it is difficult to actually discuss this properly with you, when I am not even sure what range you are giving?
But let's take it at face value, and assume that you were indeed giving a calling range in your stove sim. And let's also put aside any disagreements (and mistakes you may have made e.g. including all suited Aces, not just the flush draw ones) about the exact construction of this range for the time being...
Your stove shows that
against the calling range that you give for villain AK has better than 56% equity. So why wouldn't we want to get the money in? Nice bit of clear value to be had right away with a 12% equity advantage, plus lots of dead money already in the pot to further pad your EV. Not to mention the added bonus that you would also be protecting your equity share in the pot (and your tournament life if that sort of thing is important to you) by forcing opponent to fold some shitty hands that still have equity against your hand. So can you explain the thought process that you had at the time, when you saw you had 56% against a calling range but thought this was not a good spot to raise for both value and protection.
2. The only hands not in the range specificed are Qx - i think he ck/calls these hands
Maybe, maybe not - you can account for uncertainty like this in stove by weighting the combinations of Qx/FD hand that he calls with. This makes your stove much more realistic. I feel that villain may very well try to get to the river cheaply by making a 1/4 pot blocking bet with a lot of his pair plus gutshot hands like QJ, KT or whatever. Many bad players do this with their draws too. We may very well have different opinions on exactly what a call flop, donk small turn line tends to mean, and that is fine of course. But I certainly would not remove these hands completely from either his turn donking range or his turn calling range.
3. I dont think he leads Qx hands - and he probably doesnt get them in for the rest
I have pretty much discussed this one above. But I am just going to repeat one of my earlier points - villain is a presumed bad player, so why have you made an assumption that he is not calling with QJ type hands (i.e. pair plus gutter) and such like?
BTW, I also made 2 further points in the post you responded to, but I made them in an edit so you may not have seen them... The one thing that I really want to pull you on is that you said villain is 100% bluffing all his missed draws on the river. It is really bad to make this sort of blanket assumption imo. And if this assumption is incorrect then the line you suggested is not good.
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