Strictly Come Dancing 2013

[TightEnd]

Ashley top man bet is in terrible trouble

[Doobs]

Ashley top man bet is in terrible trouble

Nat safe.  Think Ashley needs Susanna in the bottom 2.  Patrick marking interesting again. 

[TightEnd]

think the public will vote Susanna out of the bottom 2

Sophie and Ashley I think

Patrick seems to be a judges favourite.

[Doobs]

think the public will vote Susanna out of the bottom 2

Sophie and Ashley I think

Patrick seems to be a judges favourite.

Sophie polls ahead of her.  Some petulence on show again tonight from Susanna and Ashley.  I don't think that will go down too well either, even if it is for show?  Guess Abbey could be down there just because people might assume she is safe. 

I backed Patrick at a big price for top male so it isn't money talking, but he seems to have done Ben's trick tonight.  Just stand around while your girl does all the dancing. 

[Doobs]

Early Digital Spy Poll.

Week 11: Who was your favourite couple?

View Poll Results: Who was your favourite couple?
Abbey & Aljaz      48   27.91%
Ashley & Ola      28   16.28%
Natalie & Artem      32   18.60%
Patrick & Anya      9   5.23%
Sophie & Brendan      44   25.58%
Susanna & Kevin      11   6.40%

Marks

Natalie & Artem PD (2) 9989 = 35 + 6 = 41 (6)
Patrick & Anya Rumba (3) 81099 = 36 + 5 = 41 (6)

Abbey & Aljaz VW 99910 (5) = 37 + 3 = 40 (5)

Sophie & Brendan Tango (6) 9889 = 34 + 4 = 38 (4)

Ashley & Ola Salsa (1) 8999 = 35 + 2 = 37 (3)

Susanna & Kevin AT (4) 8888 = 32 + 1 = 33 (2)

If the poll is replicated, Ashley and Susanna bottom 2.  Maybe Patrick isn't safe, as he seems a sure thing for a 1 in the public vote?  It could be a really close thing for him in the bottom 2 if the bottom 3 have big fan bases?

Anybody any idea how they deal with ties as there are only ever 2 in the dance off? 

[Tal]

think the public will vote Susanna out of the bottom 2

Sophie and Ashley I think

Patrick seems to be a judges favourite.

Sophie polls ahead of her.  Some petulence on show again tonight from Susanna and Ashley.  I don't think that will go down too well either, even if it is for show?  Guess Abbey could be down there just because people might assume she is safe. 

I backed Patrick at a big price for top male so it isn't money talking, but he seems to have done Ben's trick tonight.  Just stand around while your girl does all the dancing. 

If the petulance thing you're on about is the swingathon, that was a choreographed thing, because they all did it apart from Abbey and Aljaž, who I assume were too busy being beautiful to remember to think.

Kevin did have the unfortunate habit of looking like he'd bitten into a lemon whenever the camera came to him.

Some really daft song choices tonight (whether dancers' or producers' choice).

Ashley or Susanna to go. Be a shame as I've backed them both!

[BigAdz]

I have started to reclaim my life and go out again on sat nights, but thought I could come here and get an idea as to what is going on.

Between Tighty sounding to have kittens during the show and some numbers added together, I haven't a clue.

Cliffs anyone?

[TightEnd]

I wonder, afficianados, if much can be learnt from the following?

Each of them have to do two of the following this weekend, and learn them in four days

Abbey & Aljaž    Two of: Samba / American Smooth / Argentine Tango                   
Natalie & Artem    Two of: Foxtrot / Argentine Tango / Salsa                   
Patrick & Anya    Two of: Waltz / Paso doble / Argentine Tango                   
Sophie & Brendan    Two of: Paso doble / American Smooth / Salsa                   
Susanna & Kevin    Two of: Foxtrot / Rumba / Salsa    

If we had to put our last fiver down, who would we have it on, right now?

Sophie Aloof 9/4
Gumball 9/4
Abbey Road 4/1
Gurner Reid 9/2
Patrick Man 25/1                

 

[AndrewT]

Is it the case that in the final it doesn't really matter how well they dance, as the judges don't score them, and only the public vote counts?

If that's the case then there is a huge inflexion point with Susanna - she'll do surprisingly well in the final, provided she gets there. The only one she can beat in a dance off is Patrick, and even then, I'd make him favourite against her.

[Doobs]

Shame we don't have more money, as backing The Gurner at 9/2 with Boyles and laying her at 7/2 when Betfair is fixed is obvious.  I'd put my last fiver on Abbey at the minute, and not only because I have covered the rest.  I wouldn't take 4/1, as she is bigger on Betfair, I am probably going to try and get some at a bit bigger than 9/2.  I am a bit irritated by her price crash, as I could have covered at 14/1 the other week.  I think she is quite likeable, which isn't something I would have expected earlier.  Same with Sophie, I am pretty much a hater on her music, like her as a person.  Susanna definitely gone the other way for me.

Patrick is a bet at 1/5 first to go if he reaches the final.  Loses in every poll, clearly bottom of the public vote too.  Giving him a 10 for walking round the dance floor and looking emotional seems excessive, but the 16/1 for Top Man will help me get over it.

Susanna was clearly 1 or 2 with the public vote, but that might just be a reflection of a bigger vote when you are bottom.  She might struggle on the two dances too.  I wouldn't take 7/2, which is where I think she settles.  I have laid some of the 9/2 off I took at the weekend, but probably won't lay it all.  Shame I can't get on with Ladbrokes as they were 5/1 late on Saturday night.

I know that the Betfair forum has been calling it as Sophie vs Susanna for a while, but last fiver on Abbey for me.  Of course Nat would win if it was just a dancing comp.  I would probably put some more on her if she went 3/1.  I am not backing Sophie at 9/4, but I really don't need any more money on her anyway.

[TightEnd]

Yes the final is 100% public vote

Susanna 9/2 is very interesting. Has a real chance on popularity but has to make it through this weekend to get there

She was bottom on judges this week, must have been top two public vote to not be in the dance off and got an enormous studio ovation when she survived

[tikay]

I wonder, afficianados, if much can be learnt from the following?

Each of them have to do two of the following this weekend, and learn them in four days

Abbey & Aljaž    Two of: Samba / American Smooth / Argentine Tango                   
Natalie & Artem    Two of: Foxtrot / Argentine Tango / Salsa                   
Patrick & Anya    Two of: Waltz / Paso doble / Argentine Tango                   
Sophie & Brendan    Two of: Paso doble / American Smooth / Salsa                   
Susanna & Kevin    Two of: Foxtrot / Rumba / Salsa    

If we had to put our last fiver down, who would we have it on, right now?

Sophie Aloof 9/4
Gumball 9/4
Abbey Road 4/1
Gurner Reid 9/2
Patrick Man 25/1                

 

Bear with me Rich, whilst I give that matter of great import some thought.

Don't do a thing until I get back to you, ok?

[Doobs]

Shame we don't have more money, as backing The Gurner at 9/2 with Boyles and laying her at 7/2 when Betfair is fixed is obvious.  I'd put my last fiver on Abbey at the minute, and not only because I have covered the rest.  I wouldn't take 4/1, as she is bigger on Betfair, I am probably going to try and get some at a bit bigger than 9/2.  I am a bit irritated by her price crash, as I could have covered at 14/1 the other week.  I think she is quite likeable, which isn't something I would have expected earlier.  Same with Sophie, I am pretty much a hater on her music, like her as a person.  Susanna definitely gone the other way for me.

Patrick is a bet at 1/5 first to go if he reaches the final.  Loses in every poll, clearly bottom of the public vote too.  Giving him a 10 for walking round the dance floor and looking emotional seems excessive, but the 16/1 for Top Man will help me get over it.

Susanna was clearly 1 or 2 with the public vote, but that might just be a reflection of a bigger vote when you are bottom.  She might struggle on the two dances too.  I wouldn't take 7/2, which is where I think she settles.  I have laid some of the 9/2 off I took at the weekend, but probably won't lay it all.  Shame I can't get on with Ladbrokes as they were 5/1 late on Saturday night.

I know that the Betfair forum has been calling it as Sophie vs Susanna for a while, but last fiver on Abbey for me.  Of course Nat would win if it was just a dancing comp.  I would probably put some more on her if she went 3/1.  I am not backing Sophie at 9/4, but I really don't need any more money on her anyway.

Did anyone back Susanna at 9/2 and lay at 7/2?  I got 4.7, think I could probably have been a bit more greedy and got 4.5.  Only youwin still 9/2 now, every week they seem so slow to react.

6 was laid on Abbey earlier, and guess you can be a bit more greedy there if you think 5/1 is a good price.

The way Susanna and Sophie have been backed we might yet see Nat at 3/1 by the end of the week.

[Tal]

Personally, I think the Natalie ship has sailed.

She's said before, after coming through the back problems, she's now just going to enjoy it. What I see is a giddy girl who's having a whale of a time, but who isn't endearing herself to the public. Artem is choreographing dances that are very much different from the traditional and saying to hell with convention. The result is getting "samey", Artem looks grumpy when they don't get top marks and one or both of them cry each week. That may all be completely harsh and they may be absolutely loved by everyone on set and at home. But that's my perception.

I would now be surprised if she won.

I can't believe I've just typed that. But I would.

Abbey has become much more loveable than I expected; she's way less ditzy and waggy than her persona and she looks to be having an absolute ball. She has come on leaps and bounds in both disciplines and they are the "cute" couple the competition probably needs. She's grown in popularity and the judges obviously like her. I think she has been overhyped a little but she seems so enthusiastic that it's coming across in her performance really well. She has been the dark horse, now thrust into the limelight (ignore mixed metaphor)

Patrick can't win. Not just that he isn't popular enough; he isn't good enough. He's done fantastically well and has improved hugely in both disciplines, but his posture in ballroom (perhaps partly due to the unfair height difference between him and Anya) will stop him from lifting the glitter ball trophy.

Susanna has performance in spades and has a partner who looks as happy as a puppy in a puddle whenever he's on the dancefloor. She is strongest in the performance dances, as we saw in the Paso in Blackpool. Of late, she has lost some of her magic and I've spoken before about how I think Kevin isn't setting her achievable dances. He's not being smart. If he turns that round and gives her an easier routine, she'll nail it and they will fly.

Sophie, for me, has a defined persona. She won't wear fake tan (I like that) and she's got that aloof vibe (I don't like that). Her strengths are very much in the Roaring Twenties dances like the Charleston and the Foxtrot . It means she can star in the final, because she can focus on those showstopping dances.


On those odds, I'd go with Susanna. If all four were even, I'd probably go Abbey.

[Doobs]

Tal, you can get 9/2 Abbey on Betfair, best you can get on Susanna is 4/1 outside youwin.  If you are backing Abbey when they are all the same pricem you should surely back her when biggest of the 4?