Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

I've written off Nibali at Trentino, plus he is down to ride LBL on sunday, so may be using the next few days as training?

Hoping Santambrogio can podium, we'll see.

No further bets for me on this, too distracted at work & with a little LBL research.

ohhhh looking good for Nibali & Santambrogio

  Nibali & Santambrogio 1st & 2nd overall.

That was a tougher stage than I thought & Bouet couldn't limit the time difference & takes 3rd.

Wiggins 5th after a mechanical.

[cheapwetsuit]

Giro del Trentino starts tomorrow. A 4 day race with 5 stages, includes a team time trial on day one.

Wiggins using this as a build up to the Giro, & is priced too short. His form is reported good in training, but full race shape? I have my doubts. The Sky team looks inexperienced, no Uran, Henao or Kiryienka (on the Giro team), they race in the Ardennes this week.

Will be backing Nibali at 7/2, hoping he's recovered from the cold picked up at Milan-Sanremo. Also the Astana team looks stronger than Sky, & can gain time in the TTT.

Also small EW on Mauro Santambrogio at 28/1, who had a great Tirreno-Adriatico.

Well done, Tonji. Wasn't that mechanical a nice surprise? Thanks for the tip.

[Tonji]

Giro del Trentino starts tomorrow. A 4 day race with 5 stages, includes a team time trial on day one.

Wiggins using this as a build up to the Giro, & is priced too short. His form is reported good in training, but full race shape? I have my doubts. The Sky team looks inexperienced, no Uran, Henao or Kiryienka (on the Giro team), they race in the Ardennes this week.

Will be backing Nibali at 7/2, hoping he's recovered from the cold picked up at Milan-Sanremo. Also the Astana team looks stronger than Sky, & can gain time in the TTT.

Also small EW on Mauro Santambrogio at 28/1, who had a great Tirreno-Adriatico.

Well done, Tonji. Wasn't that mechanical a nice surprise? Thanks for the tip.

How to fling a £12K bike across a road & park it 

[Tonji]

LBL a few thoughts, please chip in anyone.

I've already got Dan Martin EW @ 33/1, placed after his Catalunya win, now best 22/1. Happy with that, but he'll be well marked on Sunday.

Less happy with the 20/1 EW on Maxim Iglinskiy taken after Strade Bianche, now available at 33/1  He was great last year at the Ardennes classics culminating in a win at LBL. This year not so hot, despite reasonable showing at Dwars Door Vlaanderen. He may be able to take advantage of the fact that his team mate Nibali will be well marked & get away, but a faint hope I think.

[Tonji]

Simon Gerrans, after a good 3rd at Amstel Gold, he decided to sit out Fleche. Think this may be a wise move. Gerrans knows LBL really well having riden it 5 times, with a best of 6th, but always in the top 20. Saw 18/1 yesterday, looks like an ok bet for a rider in form & experienced. Team looks to be set up around him to get him to the final.

[Tonji]

LBL is looking hard to predict as usual. Many of the teams have their top GT riders taking a shot, notably Froome & Nibali.

Sky looks a strong team, with options in Froome, Porte, Henao & Uran. But way one day races go at full gas for pretty much 90% of the race, & with positioning vital. Henao & Uran have better chances imo.

Astana & Nibali look a touch stronger than Sky with Iglinsky, Gasparotto & Fuglsang. Nibali was 2nd last year, 8th in 2011. Coming of the back of a win in Giro del Trentino, he'll be full of confidence. Think he's lacking some top end power, & with his season aim of the Giro a few weeks away will be not at his peak yet. But at 10/1? I'm dithering 

[Tonji]

cws, any opinion on your man Carlos Betancur, can he repeat his Fleche performance?

Also had a look at Quintana, but can't see much to get behind him. Valverde rules in Movistar, particularly after Amstel.

[Tonji]

A couple of more considerations tomorrow.

[cheapwetsuit]

Liege-Bastogne-Liege is such a hard race to predict, because it can end up two different ways. The last few years, the winner has been decided by the Roche aux Faucons (or Falcon's Rock), about 20km from the finish, with breakaway groups forming either on its 10% uphill gradient or its 8% descent. These small groups, consisting of only a handful of riders, then tend to fight it out for the victory over the last climb, the Cote de Saint-Nicholas (1.2km, 8.6%). This year, due to roadworks, there is no Falcon's Rock, only the longer, but more gentle, Colonster (2.4km, 6%). This means that for the first time in years, we could be looking at the second possibility: a bunch finish.

I am going to assume that this will be the most likely outcome, otherwise picking a winner will be next to impossible (although I have had a few banzai bets, just in case). I read somewhere that the climb up Saint-Nicholas was built for Philippe Gilbert. No doubt this is true. If, at the end of the day, it all comes down to 12 riders at the bottom of the hill, my money is on Gilbert. The truth is that he is in really good form at the moment. In the Amstel, he lost as soon as Kreuziger got away, but still powered up the Cauberg in 5th. In Fleche Wallone, he had a go, but the gradient was too much for him, and he couldn't maintain his burst of speed. Saint-Nicholas, on the other hand, is perfect for him, and there are only a few other punchers that will thrive on its slopes: Sagan, Valverde, Gerrans, Martin, and Uran. Note that I have not included Henao and Betancur in this list, as I feel they need something steeper to make best use of their talents.

Sagan (not really a puncher), as it turns out, is skipping the LBL (probably because he wouldn't be able to handle all the climbing). It's a pity, because the finish is ideal for him. Valverde and Gerrans have shown their form this season, and are both hungry for the Ardennes win denied them by Kreuziger. Martin has finished well in the LBL in the past, and was unlucky not to podium in the Fleche Wallone. With Froome and Henao sure to be marked men, I feel Uran has a great chance to slip off the front of the peloton, and he is a great sprinter to boot.

So how am I betting? Like Tonji, I've got an e/w bet on Martin @ 28/1 (best now 20/1) which I am quietly confident about. There's a small e/w banzai on Rui Costa @ 150/1 (given all the attention on Quintana and Valverde). And a small banzai on Uran to win @ 80/1. Seeing as Gerrans has dropped to 18/1, I've also had an e/w bet on him.

My main bet however is on Valverde and Gilbert. I am pretty certain that one of these two will win tomorrow, and so I am placing half my win stake on each @ 5/1, thereby ensuring a fairly safe return of 5/2. How much to bet depends on how confident you are that there will be a bunch finish.

[Tonji]

Cheers cws, great stuff.

Here's Cote de Saint-Nicholas



Certainly does look like a Gilbert punchy climb.

[Tonji]

Interesting comments from Sky's Richie Porte in the media

Making his debut in Liège-Bastogne-Liège after a first-time ride in Fleche Wallonne, Porte says he was perhaps "not really prepared for the amount of stress and the fight there was in the bunch at Fleche Wallonne. I'm guessing Liège is going to be much the same. What I've learned is that you don't come here the first time and win it. Usually the seasoned guys wins, guys that know every climb and every turn."

That'll be Gilbert, Valverde, Nibali & Rodriguez.

The case can be made for any of those four, but I've quit dithering & gone the oppostite of cws & have Nibali @ 10/1 FTW

[Tonji]

Stand out performance in the Ardennes Classics this week has been OPQS young rider Michal Kwiatkowski. A 4th & 5th in Amstel & Fleche. Really souldn't have been a suprise as he had great showings earlier in the season. Hopefully his ante post race prices next season will remain attractive.

[vegaslover]

hmmm, really interested in this just to see where everybody is form and race sharpness wise. So many quality riders in form this season, us fans are getting spoilt.

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

50km gone, breakaway with a 3min gap.

Live on Eurosport at 1.15pm

[Tonji]

CMON DAN