Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Another behind the scenes video.

[Tonji]

Despite being a massive fan, don't think I'd be out in those conditions.

I'll be in a local Italian café this afternoon for the F1 & of course sweating Cav in the final Giro stage.

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

What a legend.

[vegaslover]

Click to see full-size image.

What a legend.

Was visiting relatives so only had updates on bbc site to go on. Crazy they didn't know which lap was for the intermediary.

Tour had two outstanding riders in Nibali & Cav, for very differing reasons

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

What a legend.

Was visiting relatives so only had updates on bbc site to go on. Crazy they didn't know which lap was for the intermediary.

Tour had two outstanding riders in Nibali & Cav, for very differing reasons

Highlights from yesterday, in Italian but you get the gist. I like OPQS boys giving a polite warning to the breakaway, there is a certain etiquette on a final stage of a GT to be played out!

Nibali was in a different class. I can't remember him being in any sort of trouble all race. I doubt even a fully fit Wiggins would have been within a couple of minutes. Looks like he'll be riding the Vuelta & will be targeting the Worlds in Florence.

Big shame the weather became the talking point, particularly in the final mountain stages. Doubt the result would be any different, but would have like to have seen more of Betancur & Majka who both impressed greatly. Ones to watch for the future.

Cavendish has about a month to rest up & prepare for the TdF. Another 5 stage wins & the points jersey? Certainly will be tougher with Greipel & Sagan in the field. I'd not bet against him.

[Tonji]

Quite week now. Next major race is Critérium du Dauphiné, 2-9 June. Followed by Tour de Suisse, 8-16 June. All building up to the Tour de France, 29 June-21 July.

[vegaslover]

Click to see full-size image.

What a legend.

Was visiting relatives so only had updates on bbc site to go on. Crazy they didn't know which lap was for the intermediary.

Tour had two outstanding riders in Nibali & Cav, for very differing reasons

Highlights from yesterday, in Italian but you get the gist. I like OPQS boys giving a polite warning to the breakaway, there is a certain etiquette on a final stage of a GT to be played out!

Nibali was in a different class. I can't remember him being in any sort of trouble all race. I doubt even a fully fit Wiggins would have been within a couple of minutes. Looks like he'll be riding the Vuelta & will be targeting the Worlds in Florence.

Big shame the weather became the talking point, particularly in the final mountain stages. Doubt the result would be any different, but would have like to have seen more of Betancur & Majka who both impressed greatly. Ones to watch for the future.

Cavendish has about a month to rest up & prepare for the TdF. Another 5 stage wins & the points jersey? Certainly will be tougher with Greipel & Sagan in the field. I'd not bet against him.

Agree

Nibali has looked in a class of his own and riding within himself, when he opened up no one got close. Shame he's not at the TdF this year, the course would suit.

Really hard to tell with Cav. Sky obv were not interested in the sprints last year and Cav was a bit off form but still got 3 wins. He has a team built around him this year and is back on his favoured Specialized. Against that Sagan looks an absolute beast this year and is bang on form.
Lining up to be an awesome tour for both the yellow and green jersey.

[Tonji]

Critérium du Dauphiné

Click to see full-size image.

http://www.letour.fr/us/homepage_horscourseCDD.html

A mountainous parcours, with a flat ITT stage. Ideal preparation for the TdF contenders. Headed by Froome & Contador.

Really can't see past Froome winning. His form all season has been top class & has the support of a strong Sky team.

In theory Contador should be Froome's closest rival. However, his season until now has been patchy. I'd expect him to be up a level, but perhaps not 100% yet.

In fact all the big names should be close to 100% with the TdF only weeks away. The battle for the 3rd podium spot is close with maybe 5 or 6 names. Sanchez is in race fit condition, with a strongish last week at the Giro. If the weather is fine he may be the surprise. Jurgen van den Broeck has always gone well at the Dauphiné always around the top five, suspect this year could be better.

Outsider, Michal Kwiatkowski. Fantastic in the Ardennes classics & strong in Algarve & Terreno. Impressive, but at only 22 difficult to maintain that standard.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/dauphine-libere/winner

[Tonji]

Stage 1.





With two category 1 & a category 2 climb the stage looks initially a climbers stage. However, opportunities on descents for riders to regain the peloton make it a more open stage. The final looks like more of a uphill drag, suitable for the likes of EBH, Meersman & Gavazzi. All fast on the line in an uphill finish & all having strong recent results.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/dauphine-libere/dauphine-libere-stage-1/winner

Some value with Skybet going EW top 3 1/3 odds.

[Tonji]

Meersman got a 2nd today. But is now too short for stage 2 that favours a fearless descender. Sanchez fits the bill.

[Tonji]

Meersman got a 2nd today. But is now too short for stage 2 that favours a fearless descender. Sanchez fits the bill.

Wrong, final descent not too difficult & technical & final climbs didn't drop all the sprinters. Viviani wins.

[Tonji]

Stage 4 is a 32.5km flat ITT. Normally Tony Martin is an overwhelming favourite for these stages. However, he has been suffering stomach problems the past few days.

With those doubts Froome should probably be favourite imo.

Michal Kwiatkowski finish 2nd to Martin in Algarve over a similar distance. 22/1 is decent EW value.

[cheapwetsuit]

It's time for another time trial ... and once again the man to beat is Tony Martin. However, given the stomach problems alluded to by Tonji above, everything might not be such smooth sailing for the odds-on favourite.

By now, people should know that I love betting against Sky, and even though I pick Froome to win the Criterium du Dauphine (and the Tour de France), I've always found him vulnerable to a little bit of inconsistency in the TT. The same goes for Porte. This opens the door for a few speculative e/w bets.

Top of my list then is Michal Kwiatkowski (same as Tonji), although he is now a less-attractive 18/1. He gets most of my money. Another two names I fancy are Stef Clement (20/1) - good TT form at the moment (although might be tired, and usually better on a lumpy course) - and Lieuwe Westra (25/1) - solid, experienced time-triallist (although had a bad crash on Stage 2).

Names I've passed on are Michael Rogers (too old, past his best), Sylvain Chavanel (surely top 10, but no podium), Rohan Dennis (possible upset, but too inexperienced), Marco Pinotti (lost me money already this year), and Jonathan Castroviejo (will probably kick myself for leaving him out... hope he finishes 4th).

Also, I had to put some ice-cream money on Andrew Talansky, because I'm never going to see him at odds of 300/1 again. Of course, he is still recovering from an illness, but there's always the chance he'll wake up feeling right as rain

[Tonji]

I'm pretty sure Kwiatkowski is looking to get one of the three remaining spots in the OPQS TdF team. A top 5 in the ITT will probably secure that. He's certainly motivated. My only bet on this stage & I've had a small EW on him for the overall win.

[Tonji]

Tweet from OPQS that Martin "He trained this morning, felt ok. Ready for the stage"  bugger!