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Poker Hand Analysis
tricky one from the donkey test..
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Topic: tricky one from the donkey test.. (Read 1816 times)
temp0r
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Posts: 683
tricky one from the donkey test..
«
on:
February 20, 2007, 02:18:58 PM »
5/10 NL. $1,000 stacks. One player limps in early, you limp in late with:
SB folds and BB checks. Flop is:
BB bets $30, limper folds, you raise to $100. BB thinks and re-raises to $400.
The BB is very tight and generally shows down very strong hands. He's playing about 15% of his hands and raising about 5%, and is reasonable in his aggression on the flop. What is your best move?
Fold
Raise
Raise All-in
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Royal Flush
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
«
Reply #1 on:
February 20, 2007, 02:58:27 PM »
Push 2 pair is probable, if he has the str8 then you have outs.
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boldie
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Don't make me mad
Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
«
Reply #2 on:
February 20, 2007, 03:05:23 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on February 20, 2007, 02:58:27 PM
Push 2 pair is probable, if he has the str8 then you have outs.
yeah I'm not folding my set here
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Smart Money
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Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
«
Reply #3 on:
February 20, 2007, 07:19:08 PM »
Given the stats of the BB, then presumably it's a full-handed game- which should have a small impact on your decision. (Less loose play full-handed.) If he wasn't in the BB then I would probably find it an easy fold. (Players with those stats only play premium hands which includes all pocket pairs of course.)
Your decision is still player dependent here though. You are only beating 2 pair or an unlikely semi-bluff with an open-ended straight draw. Slightly off-topic- as a general rule, I'm very wary of post-flop aggression (against my pre-flop aggression) from players who see less than 20% of flops.
I would seriously consider a fold here against this opponent.
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doubleup
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Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
«
Reply #4 on:
February 20, 2007, 11:53:29 PM »
I put allin in the test, but only because he was in the BB and 2pr or a pair draw hand is a possiblity, but reviewing the hand in the cold light of day it might be a fold. I think the BB thinking is meant to be a clue - ie he has bottom str8 or top or middle set and apparently takes some time to assess the likelyhood of him being behind.
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AlexMartin
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Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
«
Reply #5 on:
February 21, 2007, 07:27:34 AM »
He gets my money.
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dime
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Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
«
Reply #6 on:
February 21, 2007, 11:59:21 AM »
Initaly I thought fold, when a tight player reraises its often a sign he's got something. But then I thought out of matter of interest how is your table image? Have you beeb caught bluffing lately or have you layed-down a hand when you were reraised? Just becasue he's a tight player dosen't mean he wont bluff or semi-bluff, he could well have seen this as you making a move and now he sees and opertunity to take the pot. Push.
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Spitroaster
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Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
«
Reply #7 on:
February 21, 2007, 02:53:00 PM »
I think we know that we are losing to 55, 77, 63 & 68 but we are in the lead to 66, 88, 57, AA, KK and a few other unlikely hands. We still have out if he has the made st8.
All adds up to seeing at least another card here, if not all in.
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ItsMrAlex2u
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Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
«
Reply #8 on:
February 21, 2007, 10:55:39 PM »
I got 100% for small pairs and folded assuming either flopped str8 or bigger set
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pswnio
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Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
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Reply #9 on:
February 22, 2007, 12:28:36 AM »
In the context of a quiz, I fold. In reality, I probably push.
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Horneris
#5 BH
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Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
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Reply #10 on:
February 22, 2007, 12:36:56 AM »
Id just push. He could easily have 2 pair, and if he dosent, then we peel off our Full House on the turn/river to take it down.
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Smart Money
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Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
«
Reply #11 on:
February 22, 2007, 01:26:06 AM »
I actually played a near identical hand to this at the Venetian at the end of last year. Of course the outcome of a single hand has negligible impact on the "correct" decision to make in this situation.
Although I suggested a fold above, after as many bottles of bear that you can drink in a 15+ hour stint playing live, I challenge anyone to lay down this hand under those conditions!
I called and I didn't improve against his straight in what was a near 350BB pot.
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temp0r
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Re: tricky one from the donkey test..
«
Reply #12 on:
February 22, 2007, 02:06:51 AM »
Quote from: ItsMrAlex2u on February 21, 2007, 10:55:39 PM
I got 100% for small pairs and folded assuming either flopped str8 or bigger set
me also.
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