blonde poker forum

right can somebody confirm what the odds are on catching running suited cards on the turn and river please.

for example flop  Ts 4d 9h  if you have  Ahrt  2h what are the odds that you make your flush with running hearts.

i dont want it as a percentage but odds, xx/1.

i have a bet with cupcake over the outcome and this seems the easiest way to prove the outcome.


thanks in advance.

depends - is the example during a live game or online?

 ;whistle;

0?

lol, yeah - i just saw you used  Ahrt 2d in your example too!! :D

ok ok smart arses.

fixed it

21/1

are you sure, does anybody else agree with that, there is money riding on it

45 cards left in deck 10 of which are hearts therefore chance of heart on turn is 45/10

then providing the turn is a heart there are 44 cards left in deck of which 9 are hearts therefore chance of heart on river is 44/9

chance of both being hearts is (45/10)x(44/9) = 22 or 21/1

thats in the jungle anyway ;)

They only have 50 cards in these jungle packs? Would have thought 47 (52-5) maybe i'm daft and missing something?

changing the 45/44 to 47/46 gives 24/1.

I dont think you can use 45 cards because then you are assuming that the villain if there is one doesn't have any hearts

I get 1 in 24, or 23/1

(47*46)/2 is 1081 possible turn/river combos, and off them 45 will bring a flush (10*9/2)  so 45/1084 is 1 in 24, so 23/1

my jungle opponent normally has 2 as well

52 - minus 3 cards for the flop, minus 4 cards for the players hole cards.

Apologies, maybe i should have said "provided all 10 hearts are live" in my first post

This is correct.

Not that daft.

Just if you are looking at the odds you can't dicount the other hole cards. where in the question did it state it was HU if it is a table of 10 do we base it on 29 cards?

I'd love to play in the games you do Floppy, where your opponent's cards are known to you.

ohhh sorry i forgot to add that, yes it was a full 10 seater table

ok, so you are playing heads up and you bluff all in on the flop, your opponent calls and so the cards are turned over and you can see your opponent is holding  4c 4s.

now my answer is correct ;)

ok,ok, so what are the odds now its a 10 seat table please.

...on a wet afternoon the Tuesday after there has been racing at Haydock on Saturday.

Unless the other players turn over their cards and show you what they have it has no effect on the calculation - an unknown card is an unknown card, whether it is in the muck or in the deck.

I'm betting the guy who finished 18th in the WSOP main event will win this bet, especially v a total fish........

whjat you dont know ian, is that cupcake is a bigger fish than me, but not you.

totalise is right 23/1

my calculations are simpler - as I am simple person-
on the turn 10/47, on the river 9/46 multiply it and - roughly 4.2% = 23/1

how much would you like to bet that cupcake got this right mug??

For someone with your obvious personality disfunctions, this is totally predictable.

Erm, you seem to confident that he is wrong, the question is then, were you right fish?

Is this a quote from your latest book on how to win friends and influence people ?

lol, for a start the only reason bongo wrote this was because the original question stated "what are the odds of hitting a flush on a  Ts 4d 9h when holding  Ahrt 2d?"

oi monkey, no need to make me look stupid let everybody think bongo is stupid ;whistle; ;whistle;

sorry :'(

Anyway it depends who you are playing against, against me it's around 70%.
Though 4.2% v most others

no, i was sadly wrong by a small margin ;oopsy; ;oopsy; ;oopsy; ;oopsy; ;oopsy; ;oopsy; ;oopsy; ;oopsy; ;oopsy; ;oopsy; ;oopsy;

Yes knowing your opponent has 2 cards that aren't hearts means hitting a flush. But there are full house draws to consider now, so no point in hitting a flush if it's 10h or 4h.

flush draw beating a set:
47/7 x 46/6 = 50/1 = 1.9%

And running straight cards would be just as good as a backdoor flush (unless your agasint 67... not too likely). Chances of hitting a 3 and a 5 are:

47/8 * 46/4 = 67/1 = 1.5%

Dan, what was the bet exactly, just the odds of a backdoor flush or of A2 beating a set? How much was it for, and who won?

Rich,it was just a hypothetical question, i just had a bet on the actually odds of hitting runner runner. i said 27/1 and a mate who was right so it seems said about 23/1 so i lost the bet

Ah 2h vs 4c 4s

board Tc 4d 9h


cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
4s 4c  947  95.66    43   4.34    0  0.00  0.957
Ah 2h   43   4.34   947  95.66    0  0.00  0.043

4.34 roughly 23/1?

If you have no contribution apart from being condascending or abusive then f**k off.

Please stop defiling the rules of common courtesy and civility.

flush draw vs set on the flop 30 vs 70 roughly...

oops just saw this....

a song for MrsLime:

Chorus:
Don’t be bossy
Don’t be mean
I’m here to tell you just what I mean
Be nice. Be nice.
Now I have told you twice …be nice

When we hurt one another
We all end up feeling sad
I don’t know about you
But I don’t want to feel bad….Oh no.

-Chorus-

There are many people out there
Who are brave and strong
‘Cause they don’t need to hurt someone
To prove they belong…oh no

-Chorus-

You got to be a friend to another
If you want to make one too
If you want to live in peace
It’s all up to you…oh yea.

-Chorus-

 

 use it as your daily mantra....gl

I thank you all.......I think we all agree it's 23-1 and as the great white GAY one would say " Ship it ".



 Cupcake.

Rather than looking at the odds I prefer to categorise like this
Two overcards against the pair..........oh well part of the game
Two undercards against the overcards.............bit lucky
AK against Kings.....................It's just not my night
undercards against the pair..............You are blessed
Trips against the made straight..............obviously you don't mind being behind
Hitting the one outer...............Why me you B****ard

Of course there are loads more and I would like to sample other peoples categories