blonde poker forum

I played in the APAT in Walsall on Saturday and this hand cropped up. I am interested in opinions....

I have increased my 10,000 starting chips up to 18,500. I have been playing safe and solid.

This hand occurs after the first break when the blinds were 200/400. I have just had my starting table broken and find myself in the cut-off position at my new table ready to be dealt my first hand.

The Hand

A player from middle position enters the pot with a limp, he has a stack of around 20,000 but seems a bit unsure and tentative. When the action reaches us we look down in the cut-off to see...

  9d  Td

What are your initial thoughts when you see this hand? If you are playing confidently do you enjoy the opportunity to get involved with suited connectors?

I decide to call the 400 and see what develops. The button and the sb fold and the bb checks his option so we go to the flop with 1,400 chips in the pot.

The Flop

  9c  Kd  Tc

What are your thoughts about the flop and how you would like this hand to develop from here?

The bb checks...the mid position limper then fires in an aggressive 1,500 chip bet. What do you think of this bet and what would you do?

Further action and the turn will come later in the week...

I like playing hands like this if I can limp in but normally I like at least two other limpers just to make it a bit better value, but that's not to say that I wouldn't have called anyway, sometimes those connected diamonds are just too purdy to discard straight away!

I think the flops come quite nice for you.   Based on your comments on the player re unsure and tentative and the overly agressive bet on the flop, I think he may have regretted not raising preflop and now the board looks a bit dangerous for him.   Perhaps he has AK or pocket aces, queens or jacks.  I would put him on something decent here but I think you are ahead.   

I'd call here and see what he does on the turn, but I'd be looking to raise any bet he may make and bet should he not bet.

Preflop is ok. Effective stacks are deep enough to limp behind. I think I would make it 1400 myself as I'd prefer to isolate the bad player - but limping is ok.

On the flop - raise the overbet. Bottom two is not something to be slowplayed on this type of board. I dont think mp limper is on a draw because players who limp preflop with 50BB stacks generally prefer to checkcall or block bet their draws. But you will surely get it in here against AK / KQ / KJ and there is no reason to want the BB to tag along - so I would make it 5000 and snapcall a shove.

Totally agree here.

triple his bet to 4,500

if he shoves then you are calling. I think

I would raise in position pre flop- I like mixing up my play pre flop.

I'd put him on hand range KQ, KJ, J10 and maybe even QJ or K10. Being in position I'd take a card off. Sounds a bit cautious but I like to see a turn card on a board like this for two reasons.

Pot control- I don't want to build a huge pot unless I'm sure I have the best hand.

I don't want to race- if he has a flush draw and re shoves my raise I probably have to call and race. By taking a card off I can re evaluate on the turn if a "safe" card hits and if he checks I can out price him with a strong turn bet.

This is a truly marginal spot i think. I raise preflop in this spot most of the time. No strength has been shown and im happy to outplay mid pos limper if he comes for the ride. I dont want 2 random hands to compete with. With 2+ limpers i limp too. Flop is actually pretty horrible, bottom 2 on this kind of connected board is a hand you could well be going broke with. His overbet i am reading as a protective bet and put matey on AK/KQ. Deffo read dependant this one. More than likely im jamming to stop a scare card shutting down my action. I want KQ and AK in now. I dont want to gamble on a club, 8JQK or A coming and putting me in a really tough spot.

V a strong solid player i deffo raise pre to find his hand strength.

if you are not going to play after hitting two pair on the flop after calling a raise with (relative) garbage, then you should never have called the pre-flop raise in the first place.

i mean, what are you expecting to hit - a straight flush ?

moral of the tale is if you are not confident playing marginal positions post flop, then only play premium hands preflop.

preflop it's a raise or a fold and definetly not a limp for me. There's no value in playing the hands as suited connectors as you'd need more limpers into the pot so you might as well play position only..and that means raising it up here and getting the blinds out of the way.

On the flop I call knowing he could well be on the FD or have JQ or K10 that is beating me...more often than not he doesn't but the snap pot-sized bet (this is not an overbet by any stretch of the imagination for me) on this flop from a nervous player ussually means he's hit and he's looking to get paid. I'm not ruling out AK here but there's about 0% chance that he has KJ here as his bet would have been smaller or he would have checked to you..that's what tentative players tend to do.

I could raise here and find myself putting all my chips in the middle with bottom two pair when I call an all-in or even donking off 5k here by raising and folding to an all-in (There is simply no way in a tourney that on this board caling an all in is a good thing to do when you have this many chips..in fact I would argue it's suicide so the re-raise fold to all in is the better option here) but I prefer to now flat call and play it like I am on a draw.

If the club comes or even a J or Q (let alone a 9 or 10) I bet out as if I have the straight, flush or set (in my case obviously full house but he won't know that) It's a matter of outplaying the guy on this board rather than outdonking him but sticking in 45BB's on this board with bottom two pair.

o raise pre-flop..with this action flatcall the flop.

Ok, I don't like some of the tournament life syndrome posts in this thread. The above is particularly bad IMO:

- We can never be "sure" we have the best hand unless we only ever get money in preflop with AA and postflop with the actual nuts. All we can do is assess the various range of hands our opponent can have and compare how our actual hand does against such a range in terms of expected equity. We then compare that equity to the pot equity or price we are receiving and base our decisions on that assessment. If it's plus cEV when we break it down we need to get it in. And sometimes when we consider the range and tendencies of our opponent and have enough chips behind we can factor in some fold equity if we raise which can help weight things from a fold to a call if we can conclude that we win a pot without showdown and get better hands to fold often enough.

This is a complex guessing game - but poker is, as Harrington, Sklansky, Flynn etc like to emphasise over and over, a game of incomplete information. We can't always get it right on the spot of course - but if we learn to think about our hands in the right way after the fact we can eventually reach a point where we have run the numbers often enough to have a good feel for what is plus or minus EV in the heat of battle;




- Talk of waiting until a "safe" card peels on the turn before getting money in is pure craziness. If this guy decided to turn over AcXc while you are thinking and informs you that he would like to get it in and gamble you should be in quicker than Flynn with a fistpump. We would be getting the best of it to "race" with two cards coming and be delighted at the villian's kind offer to get our stack in so good.

The value in playing APAT events springs from the added live tournament seat added to the top of the prizepool. In terms of enough cash to cover the expense of travel and accomodation that many players burden when attending these events - plus the consideration of your time - means that only the top three spots should interest you from a monetary perspective. Therefore, in order to make money from these events and maximise your expectation in terms of money: you need to take every single equity edge in terms of chips.

Right up until the tournament becomes three or four handed +cEV is going to equal +$EV. As such we don't want to be slowplaying this specific situation. Further considerations come from the fact that APAT events actually have a very flawed tournament structure that ensure things get very crapshooty at the business end. It is deceptively fast with huge level jumps later on in the tournament due to the lack of a 500 / 1000 level; 1200 / 2400; 2500 / 5000. Being comfortably chipped at this stage is absolutely irrelevant. We will need to double our stack a number of times if we want to be competative at the final table. And finally, we are only 46BBs deep at the start of this hand which is not really that important of a stack in any case.





- A bet of 1500 here is unlikely to be a draw. But it is also unlikely to be a set or a better two pair. In my view, you can significantly lean his range in this spot to AA. AK. KQ, KJ. For him to have those hands and stack off with them he would need to be a weak player. But:

- weak players limp from early or mid position once the blinds go beyond the first three levels;
- weak players overbet strong one pair hands on drawy boards because "ZOMG I CAN'T LET HIM DRAW!!!!!!!"
- weak players will sometimes appear unsure and tentative;
- weak players make up most of a standard APAT field;


If he has one of the above hands I listed we really want to get money in now. Any K; Q; J; Club will either outdraw our hand or kill or action. The best time for us to get full value from hands we beat is now on the flop. There is also a part of his range which is pure bluffs but I think it is a minor percentage usually and we may end up folding the best hand on the turn or river if he double or triple barrells cards we don't like.


To not raise here you need to think about the type of hands he may have; and decide that there are far more hands in his range on the flop that have you beat than which you beat. I personally cannot see how you could reach such a conclusion given the information available to us - BUT, if you do then you CANNOT CALL THIS BET WITHOUT A CLEAR IDEA OF WHAT YOU ARE DOING TO FURTHER ACTION ON THE TURN OR RIVER.

As I said, this is a really bad spot to turn a vulnerable hand like bottom two into a bluff catcher, so for all of you scared that you may be behind and assigning a range to villian where bottom two is in trouble - I suggest that you actually fold to the flop bet; or call intending to fold to one more barrell on the turn or river.

Speak to Phil Helmuth who plays small ball about +EV play- he has 11 bracelets in hold em- there's more then one way to skin a cat. I personally would like to avoid getting my money in against a flush draw here.

 ;flushy;

getting all your chips in here when you are this deepstacked on a race is simply a stupid play IMO There is no need for it and it's a ure fire way to donking out of a tourney early.

I raise this hand preflop over 1 limper to isolate the limper in the hand who sounds likely to fold and also we can bet him off a missed flop, i would have thought this is more +ev than limping.

As for the flop I'm raising the overbet with the intention of getting it in hopefully on the flop ,to my mind i make it 6000 showing i mean business and not wanting to see a turn where a load of scare cards can hit and kill the action. As Lloyd pointed out this overbet looks like a made hand but the point is does he stack ak,kq if a club rolls off the turn.



Erm trying to mirror Phil (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=708) Hellmuth (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=708) is fair enough but as Phil may well point out villan rarely if ever has a flush draw here unless its kx of diamonds.


Wow this is horribly weak tight and misguided imo. Firstly we have stack of fold equity here to more than compensate for the fact we maybe racing and i reckon our hand is most of the time is a 60/40 fave here which is more than enough equity to me.

Lloyd's post is an excellent one and as he correctly points out you have to be gunning to finish top 3 in these tournament therefore any equity edge even early in the tournament should not be passed up.

Some of the posts on here seem to assume we are superstar poker players who don't need to gamble as we have such an advantage over the field, come off it. As this kind of attitude seems to be exactly the leak in most APAT players (basing this on others comments).
 

how do you have fold equity when you stick all your chips in the middle? The reason I flat call is because I WANT the scare card to come down. (as per my original post which I suggest you should quote and not my second one only)
 I will not be sticking 45 BB's in the middle on this board at this stage of the tourney with bottom two pair so I know I won't call an all-in reraise against this oppo (most of the time) as I have him on a hand that is more than likely to already beat me..not a hand that's on a FD.

Like I said I always raise this pre-flop because I'm playing position on this situation..I would continue to play position more than anything else against this oppo on this board because of my "read" on this sort of oppo sticking in a snap bet. I think he's ahead here simply because of the way he's described by Mantis.

BTW..thanks for calling me weak-tight..it's been a while since I've been caled that by anyone .. :)

I still prefer to flat call the flop bet in position without building a huge pot on this type of board- I believe I have the ability to find plenty of other spots in a deep stacked tournament without having to get all my chips in this spot.

Erm beacuse in the process of raising to get to the point where we are all in, he folds his hand a certain amount of time. I accept that you think we are already beaten, i disagree, if thats the case surely we fold the flop.

See, I'm thinking he's the one who is likely to push when I reraise him therefore the fold equity isn't really with me. It's one of the reasons I don't like talking about fold equity sometimes because in my opinion, in this case, it's with oppo rather than yourself. (contentious I know). The reason I wouldn't fold the flop is because I have a fairly decent piece of it and it's the sort of board where I could still take the pot if I'm behind now (admittedly I might not be) and the right card comes down for me (anything that can scare him or give me the FH :)

Part II

The action gets to me after the 1,500 bet. I think the amount here is a little excessive and my worry is that if I just call the bet I allow the bb to get involved either by calling or raising and in addition I think the turn card could complicate matters. So I decide to act now on the flop and re-pop the mp player to the tune of 4,500.

He looks surprised by this...thinks...is unsure...then calls the extra 3,000.

So we go to the turn with 10,400 chips in the pot....

The Turn

 4h

and this makes a board of

 9c  Kd  Tc  4h

My opponent considers his options and then bets a surprising 4,000

What are your thoughts about this hand now and what is the best way to proceed? In my mind this has turned into a bit of a puzzle.

If my opponent is on a strong hand and fears the outdraw why over-bet the flop, only call the re-raise and then give the draw great odds to call? Alternatively, does his actions now suggest he is on a draw himself, tried to buy the pot on the flop and now on the turn is putting in some sort of blocker bet?

After this strange small bet on the turn there is now 14,400 chips in the pot and we have 13,600 remaining chips.

So the question is...What are you going to do now and why??

Well firstly clearly villan is an idiot and his actions are quite hard to figure out, on the basis he probably hasn't got a clue what he is doing himself and why.

I think im going to shove, the turn is a total blank and changes nothing. I believe we were ahead on the flop and while the action is frankly bizarre, given my views on villan I still think we are. I see this alot from bad players and they rarely have a super strong hand here.

My range for villan is any kq,kj,kx of diamonds, some bizarre combo draw and of course some hands that beat us k10,k9 being the most likely, it is less likely but of course possible that he has qj,99,1010 and even aa (yes i really do see ppl play aa like this). Also this may well be the same hand.

Im shoving for value and to give draws the wrong price.

pushing here maks his decision really easy doesn't it ? he pases all one pair hands and only calls with hands that are ahead. He has played this so strangely i have no idea where we are.

Not possibly a relative novice, a beginner, an unorthodox player, but an idiot. 

::)

Whatever, we are behind to so much here (any better 2 pair, trips str8 etc) but we're not dead yet, with 3:1+ on offer, I'm inclined just to call and see what the river brings and see what he does then.

Trouble with calling is that he's going to push all in on the river then it's down to us again to make a decision.  I agree with Longy, and would push all in.  I'd put him on AK here. As I mentioned in my post about the flop, he's regretted not raising preflop with a big hand and now fears what he's let in and is overplaying his hand.

Fold preflop he obviously has the straight.


Lucky lloyd, you are obviously just a gamler, and getting your chips in here is -ve if you ask me. people like you make tight play so profitable.

I would almost start to think Villain knows what he's doing and is over acting being surprised at the call. He can't believe his luck that he got a caller and just thought "ok, how do I play this now?..ok I'll call and stick in a relativey small bet on the turn"..interesting if he is indeed miles ahead and if he is I love his play against someone who does think he knows what he's doing. If yuor oppo know he's up against a "thinking" player and is acting this out he's a genius and certainly not a clown.

There is no difference between calling and shoving here really. Your chips will go in the middle anyways as if you don't fold here you are beyond folding. might aswell shove here (it's the manly thing to do when the choice is between calling for all your chips or shoving them into a monster) and cry as Villain turns over his mighty mighty hand and everybody points and laughs at you at having been soo grossly outplayed and out-thought ;)


disclaimer..OK maybe they didn't point and laugh...but wouldn't that have been funny?

disclaimer nr2...I could of course be completely wrong about you losing this hand :)

Nothing wrong with a little discussion..perhaps you are right but will he push the river? Longy seems to think he's a donk..but he might not be...do you really want to gamble with your tournament life on this read? Maybe..but not me. If we call here we still have c.10k back which is still playable at 200/400.

If you really think he's got AK and will push the river then you are gonna call anyway unless the board pairs against you. Maybe the river isn't free..but it's cheap enough!

Lol im in one of those moods today, yes Kinboshi your description is probably fairer, but i will stick with idiot.

I push, against this standard of opponent. In particular I am assuming this opponents "reads" are what they seem and not reverse tells, if so you must be ahead


I must confess to having no idea whatsoever about his turn bet!!

;ashamed;

And the degen in me says to shove the balls off this turn.

I don't agree with Longy re the idiot part, I wouldn't be so rude :D  I'd give him some respect, especially after betting 4k on the turn.

If he had the straight, he should be reraising the raise on the flop surely?  With the FD out there, I wouldn't risk just flat calling, I'd be pushing if I'd made the straight.  I'd rule QJ out.   

Would he have been the first to enter the pot and limp in with KT?  I wouldn't have thought so, although his surprised look could explain the nice flop for him.   Perhaps I'm reading too much into the comment about this. 

So if we flat call here, the pot is going to be 18.5k and we have only 10k back.  I can't see anything else other than an all in happening on the river.  Matey has shown some strength calling the reraise then leading with 4k on the turn so I can't see him going anywhere, the pot is going to be too big. 

I was going to write this

I think it either needs folding or pushing, calling isn't an option.

But then I remembered an article recently about Daniel Negraneau (I think) who mentioned that us Europeans are too keen to put all our chips in, where as the Americans like a more lowball type game.

So perhaps calling is the option here and seeing what the river brings.   He may well check as he hasn't managed to frighten us off yet.

Hmmm, 5 minutes to learn, a lifetime to master........

(http://northlandlodgecanada.com/catalog/images/Jam_1.jpg)

The inconceivable prospect that he just hit a set of fours entered my mind. Though I can't see how it's even remotely possible for him to call the raise on the flop, I have seen worse plays made with just as lucky an outcome.

The constant confusion he seems to be demonstrating is possibly a sign that's he is very inexperienced and decided to call. One of the first things I ever did when I played poker was call call call and shove on the river without really considering my hand to the board whatsoever, simply just trying to purely bluff my way out of it. That said, I am not sure how often those sort of players go into a casino to play live tournaments. I certainly didn't.

It's absurd as an example, I know, but it's clearly an amateur poker event and I think it's being over analytical to put him on AK esque hands because he doesn't strike me as the sort of player that is going to hold out for premium cards only. You just really can't tell what the hell he is holding and he is playing very oddly.

I could also just be utterly way off the mark and wrong. The latter being the likely.

This week there isn't a Part III because all the action happened on the turn.

After my opponent bets 4,000 on the turn I try to put everything together. Limp pre-flop, over-bet on the flop, calling the raise and now a piddly little bet on the turn. Inconsistency abounds here and my inclination is that my opponent is trying to control the size of the pot and wants a river card for 4,000 but I'm not going to let that happen and push.

My opponent does call the all-in.

So both players are all-in with one card to come. Am I ahead or behind and does the best hand stand-up?

The reveal is really worth a read for every tournament player I think.

Results are irrelevant.

Posted by: LuckyLloyd

This statement grates me a bit.

Tournament poker is a sport...and there is no other sport anywhere around the world where this statement would carry an ounce of credibility. Sounds like something a left-wing, bearded school govenor would say about a school sports day.

When Yang won the WSOP Main Event I read many a debate about his credibility and hoardes of people offered the opinion that he wasn't a particularly worthy winner with regard to his ability. How irrelevant was his result? Pretty relevant I imagine. I have re-posted below what I posted at the time.

The result is the most important thing in tournament poker...nothing else really matters. I was talking to my mate Marcus the other day soon after he had won the Grosvenor Grand Prix. Yes, he lucked out a few times in the tournament...namely 9-9 Vs A-A in the Final...did that bother him? LOL. Was the result irrelevant to him? LOL.

What's more the result of this week's HOTW is the result because of how YOU played it...the approach YOU took...so how is the result irrelevant? I really wouldn't know.

Ref: Is Yang Any Good?  

For aspiring poker players the need to be good at the game should be a prominent goal. Why? Because the better you are the more chance you have of winning a big tournament. Any increase in skill level will negate the luck factor that little bit more...and the less you rely on luck the more realistic your chances of success actually become.

So for any of us on this journey, it is important not to become results orientated in order to keep our sanity in tact.

You read your opponent's re-raise as weak and call his all-in with 9-9. You find yourself up against 6-6 and get knocked-out to a rivered 6. You played perfect poker and lost. No matter how good you become you still remain a humble servant to the poker gods. But the quest to be a better player continues to burn bright and you take your seat at the next tournament with renewed enthusiasm.

However, when you do actually cash in a big one (e.g. Yang - $8.5m) everything I have just said would become complete and utter irrelevant piffle. Having achieved the ultimate goal you would quickly and clearly realise that poker is actually comprehensively results orientated. It matters not how you got there.....the important thing is you're there. It is only important to use the crutch of skill on the way up, it gives you hope, it gives you respect and it gives you the enthusiasm to plod onwards. Once there, I am sure you would quickly realise that any half-competent player is capable of winning any poker tournament and on that particular day the powers that be looked down kindly upon you. It was just your day.

When you have $8.5m it is inconsequential how "well" you performed....you have $8.5 MILLION!!!

For this sort of money you can call me a donkey if it makes you happy. I will just smile and adjust my bracelet slightly. In fact for $8.5m you can strap a saddle to my back and I will work the season on Blackpool Beach.

S Fox recently folded his way to $450k in the $5k NLH and was criticised somewhat for his performance

He said...

"Ive got a hang over from last night we nailed it in the voodo bar. Iwan told me he watched the final on the net and the guys were nailing me about playing tight, I did all the jiggy stuff to get in the final and dont care what some random guy thinks about how i play poker"

I think once you're there you're there and being good just doesn't matter any more. You will go promptly to the Voodo Bar and start your new life!

So how good is Yang?....Very, Very rich indeed!  

You get it all in with AA preflop and lose.

Does the result mean you've played it bad? Not at all!

This is what's meant by "results are irrelevant".

When discussing how to play a hand it's not the end result that matters most, it's the decisions made along the way.

Lol, all i have got to say is keep em low dealer, no club, hollllllddddddddddddddddd, one timmmmmmmmmmmeeeeeeeee!

Results are relevant - short term yes.

But long term, it is making "winning/correct" plays that counts.

In this hand players need to have a good look at the result and learn that the result is directly linked to their approach from start to finish. You look at a result and analyse backwards to see how your actions brought you to that point, this means the result is always significant in analysis and the result is very significant in this hand imo.

I know Longy's post is not snobby high brow poker analysis...but it's still a bloody good post.

M3Boy what is your opinion of long term tournament expectation and how this works?

Metagaming

My opinion of long term tournament expectation? Not entirely sure what you mean of this but .......

Long term, as long as I make correct plays (be it a lay down or a move or a call looking to hit) the result is irrelevant to me. Reducing/avoiding bad plays/situations will no doubt bring long term profit.

To become a good poker player, short term expectations/results should not distract you away from making the "correct" play

Hopefully this makes more sense

You 2 fellas need to stay off this board!!
There is a real danger you might actually bring some kippers round to your way of thinking and that can only be a bad thing..........

Marcus played the £10 novice comp at walsall today LOL

lol, marcus played the rookie? phil ivey wouldn't cash in that thing i'm tellin' ya'



stop all the deep thinking analytical crud and tell me if the guy had K-T

my thoughts on the hand as i went through were....raise 3BB pre flop, i never limp, not once the blinds hit 200/400+, and i mean NEVER, if i wanna see a flop with 7-8, im raising 3BB, it gives me so many more options if i miss the flop(yes i know, i can lose a big pot this way, never said it was 100% right, just how i prefer)


on the flop i think he checks to me as i am the pre flop raiser, in which case i bet 2/3 of the pot.....but we'll go with his 4k bet, truth is im putting him on K-Q, K-J maybe A-K here now, maybe even Q-J or 9-9

i dont think he limps with A-K tho pre flop, so im crossing that 1 out


bottom line is, and you all said it on the turn, you have no idea where you are now, but the read of the small bet looking for a cheap river draw is what im going with, im sticking it in here and praying he doesnt have 1 of the 8 hands that have us beat

theres not much that calls you and doesnt have you crushed here, 1 hell of a tough spot i have to say

K-T
K-9
K-4
Q-J
K-K
T-T
9-9
4-4

all have you beat, infact, A-K is the only hand that calls you all in that you can beat, and i already ruled that hand out......

did i say push?...i meant errrr, call and try to lose as little as possible, tough to fold in this spot

why do i feel like he flopped the straight and you river the boat? lol, and thats why your reluctant to post results, LOL j/k  ;)



aaarrrggghhhh driving me nuts, JUST TELL ME WHAT HE HAD !!!!!!

This is going to be my last post in the PHA section of these boards for quite some time. I am not an excellent player by any stretch of the imagination - yet I think that even me continuing to argue with your way of thinking and poker mentality simply amounts to a tapping of the proverbial fish tank.

POKER IS NOT A SPORT. It's a maths based game that carries a lopsided ratio in terms of skill : luck. However, that ratio becomes closer the shorter the sample size. And in the case of a single hand or a single tournament - the ratio can sometimes tilt in favor of luck : skill. As such, if 100k hands at 6 - max cash equates to a premiership season - a single APAT event is closer to Bury at home to West Ham in the FA cup third round in terrible wet conditions and in front of a raucous home support. And an individual hand is the equivalent of a 30 second a half indoor five a side.

Therefore, results in terms of an individual hand or an individual tournament will tell us nothing about whether we are good or bad; or whether something was correct or incorrect. It is possible to play a poker tournament; play EVERY single hand in a negative EV fashion and still win. In fact, it is an accepted reality that tournaments rarely reward the player that plays the best poker.

The smaller the sample, the greater bearing variance will have on the outcome. And, as such, the smaller the sample the less relevant it is for basing conclusions on what the best play in a certain type of situation was; or will be the next time. The "long run" in live tournaments in terms of results is practically unreachable most of the time. You could probably play every APAT event for the next five years and still have no idea what your true edge or expectation for playing them is. And it is definitely possible to play every APAT event for the next five years without making a single incorrect decision or questionable play and never cash once.

This is why professional tournament players play thousands of MTTs a year. The most successful online tournament pros generally work sweatshop hours and invest 500 - 600k+ in buyins per year. They do this in an attempt to defeat the sick variance that the MTT format produces. Their focus is on making decisions in every hand that will equal a positive expectation in terms of chips over the long run. They have no regard for self defeating concepts like tournament life unless the particular hand scenario means that +cEV no longer equals +$EV(sats or on a pay bubble).

A good hand dissection can take place without the actual result of the hand being revealed. What the villian called with THIS TIME and who won the hand THIS TIME  does not matter one little bit. Our goal should be to try and identify what hands he could have turned over this time given the action and work out the best line available against that range given our holding of flopped bottom two pair. That's it. Once results are revealed it becomes impossible for most people to discuss those issues without some form of inherent bias meaning that most of any remaining discussion will be devalued and less useful from a perspective of progression in your thought processes.

I play a lot of tournaments and I post in a lot of tournament hand history analysis threads on various poker forums. The end result of this hand is entirely uninteresting to me. Knowing it will not help me to improve my game one little bit. This broader tournament scenario (APAT event; miles from the money) is meh. And in any case - THIS IS NOT A SWEAT THREAD.

As a consequence, the result of this hand is irrelevant. But it pleases me that you don't get that. Because we need teh value.

Great post but i did say you should stop educating the fishes.

BTW if i flopped 2 pairs i would do whatever i could to get my chips in here because statistically i am going to be ahead more often than not, if i am miles behind in this single instance then tough it really doesn't matter.

LuckyL - hope you don't stop posting as you clearly have a lot to offer this board.  I agree 100% with your comments about results being irrelevant to the discussion of a hand.  I think this could be an excellent board if a bit more guidance was provided on what was required to start a sensible discussion about a hand and what was expected from respondents. 

To find out the cards in this hand, please see the reveal in the link below:

http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/13579 (http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/13579)

what do you have in mind?

surely one persons sensible discussion/reponse is another's waste of time?

we aim to attract all players of varying standards and experience to this board.

The result has been posted so let’s take a look at the lessons to be learnt from this week’s HOTW.

Firstly, the result for me is both relevant and significant.

Lessons are learnt in almost everything we do by assessing the results of our actions. If I win this hand then the significance of playing blind would almost certainly have been lost on me this time. But in this case it is worthwhile to look at the result of my actions, namely being knocked out of the tournament, and realise that this was an entirely avoidable situation. I can now use the result of this experience to shape my actions and attitude in future tournaments. Tournament strategy and tournament success for me is not about whether you win or loose a single hand.

A infinitely more important point though is this…..

Have you ever heard the expression “play the person not your cards”?

Of course you have…it is one of the first things we learn when we first take up the game. We learn that just playing the cards you are dealt is a strategy for dummies. totalise makes this point in another thread this week , namely “Tremendous Bluff? Or Not? when he says….

Posted by: totalise

In this example it is the first hand of a new table and we encounter an opponent we know absolutely nothing about and so making firm decisions about him, his play and his range is pure speculation

So for example…
Posted by: ifm

So while it may sound good to offer the statistic that you will be ahead most of the time with bottom two pair against this guy, in reality this theory has just been plucked from thin air. Your opponent could be the tightest rock at the table. He may only bet the flop when very strong and call re-raises with monsters. You wouldn’t know. So to suggest you are going to be ahead most of the time against him carries no substance at all. If you don’t know what his range is you can’t produce any sort of credible statistic for him. Unless of course you play every opponent like an Average Joe…and this comes back to just playing your cards not the person. A strategy for dummies.

I hope the members who visit the PHA Board and are genuinely looking to improve their tournament play see through the mudslinging and actually take something away from this thread. Because there is a valuable lesson to be learnt. Why people who contribute find it necessary to avoid discussing theory and the practicalities of play in favour of name calling is anybody's guess. It is a shame we find it difficult to learn from each other because the facts of the matter are nobody is going to offer up the best advice on every occasion...it's all just opinion for discussion.

Anyway thanks to all those who contributed, especially those who so readily proved the point I was looking to make.

Mantis is now taking a sabbatical from HOTW and I would like to thank him on blonde's behalf for his contributions over the past couple of months. Agree with him on most occasions or not, I think we can all agree that his threads have been thought provoking. Speaking personally, they were much appreciated.

Someone else will be in the "hot" (in more ways than one) seat along with totalise shortly I hope, watch this space etc

Interesting post. Is there an argument to say that noting the result is worthwhile to gain a sample of hands from which to identify patterns in people's play in these type of situations. Just a question, I am a self-confessed fish.  ;flushy;

Obviously we note everything in order to build up information on opponents. But making grand sweeping statements on the basis of one hand is ridiculous.

The trouble is mantis you do these threads with a god complex, you believe everything you say is 100% correct and no matter how many people offer an alternative view you just refuse to budge on your opinion.
The only mudslinger here is you, enjoy the sabbatical.

Words just fail me....almost
[/sigh]

;D

When did you become such a meany pants?

Mantis volunteered a lot of time here, don't forget.

I have gained a lot of enjoyment from these threads and am appreciative for his time.

On behalf of Team blonde, I'd like to thank Mantis for his contributions to HOTW for the last few months. His efforts were wholly unpaid, & attracted much comment, good & bad. For that, we at blonde are very grateful.

Hope to hear from you again Mantis, the sooner the better.

Thanks fella.

We now need new Contributors to commit to starting regular HOTW threads, but boy oh boy, they need thick skins!

I'd like to add my thanks to Mantis. I've found his posts to be excellently written and very thought provoking

Thank you

Yes, although I'm certain that his epitaph will be "he wouldn't let it lie", his choice of hands for discussion has been excellent and the resulting debate very worthwhile.

I'd like to add my thanks to Mantis, I for one have learnt a lot - and oh boy do I have lots to learn.

While I probably certainly fall into the category of one of those that didn't agree with alot of what Mantis said and I stand by that.

I would like to thank him for his efforts, some of the hands were well worth discussing he just didn't seem to take the criticism very well, when people disagreed with him.

No hard feelings as far as im concerned.

Well done Mantis- unfortunate people don't have the tact to word their posts without causing offence.

I would also like to point out that I thought QJ was in villan's range.

Long live smallball!!!!

[ ] I play smallball

[ ] I made some good posts ITT

[X] Secret mantis fanboy

[ ] New POTW coming soon

[ ] Mantis on sabbatical

;hattip;

:)