blonde poker forum

Yes I should I know, but I folded because a) he's all in preflop for $450k, massive overraise b) It's going damage me if I don't win, at best I'm racing and as the current CLish, I  don't need to risk it do I?
PokerStars Game #15599575917: Tournament #78843354, $8.00+$0.80 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXII (8000/16000) - 2008/02/27 - 21:54:41 (ET)
Table '78843354 107' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: Mathieu94230 (425510 in chips)
Seat 3: pecX (237973 in chips)
Seat 4: dontbeskuurd (478506 in chips)
Seat 7: Graham0573 (598222 in chips)
Seat 8: Com. Tomson (563789 in chips)
Mathieu94230: posts the ante 1600
pecX: posts the ante 1600
dontbeskuurd: posts the ante 1600
Graham0573: posts the ante 1600
Com. Tomson: posts the ante 1600
dontbeskuurd: posts small blind 8000
Graham0573: posts big blind 16000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Graham0573 [Ad Kh]
Com. Tomson: folds
Mathieu94230: raises 407910 to 423910 and is all-in
pecX: folds
dontbeskuurd: folds
Graham0573: folds
Mathieu94230 collected 48000 from pot
Mathieu94230: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 48000 | Rake 0
Seat 2: Mathieu94230 collected (48000)
Seat 3: pecX (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: dontbeskuurd (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Graham0573 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: Com. Tomson folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Insta-call, I will be surprised if anyone thinks different.

call all day longggggg

yep what the man said.

doh!  I knew I should have as soon as I folded.

I am a rock

did you win?

Thankfully I did :)  I regretted folding a few hands later when I lost a pot to his all in when he was shorter, but I came back to get my first Stars win :D

I called last night with the same hand as I had a nice chunk of chips (5 to 1 - at least - over the all in guy)...and lost to his pp 3's.  3 hands later, same story...lost to pp 10's.  That left me damaged big time, card dead and no way to recover.

Sometimes I wonder why everyone is so determined that calling with the AK is the right move when 'playing to win'.  My normal style would be to fold unless I'm the short stack because any pair is better than no pair pre-flop.  Wish I could get my head around why 'it's the right move.'

because he could also very well not have a pocket pair.

True, but do I want to use my chips to prove it to the rest of the table?

You don't prove it to the rest of the table. You put him on a range and say "I have a great shot at winning this hand as I could be ahead (or racing at worst) and then go on to win the tourney".If the range you put him on if not favourable..you fold. I don't quite understand what you'd be proving to the rest of the table.

That bit.  lol

I'm easily confused at the best of times. but why would you prove anything to the rest of the table by calling here..that's not the reason for any call you make?...I dunno..just ignore me...I'm not awake yet.I just don't understand the "proving to the rest of the table" comment.

Haven't had me coffee yet, so probably not getting the point across properly.  The way I look at it, every hand is being studied...or at least 'should be', by everyone at the table.  I don't have poker tracker or any of that, but I take notes on everyone who ever sits at a table with me.  While others are card dead and bored, I'm busy watching and hopefully learning.  Every hand has information from start to finish.  To me, a hand like this is valuable information for everyone at the table.  When I'm in this situation I tend to ask myself a couple of questions. 

What do you put them on? 

What's their stack size in comparison to mine? 

Will they damage me bad if I call?  (Quick look at 'average chips' stats if needed)

And last but not least...do I feel I'm ahead enough to risk my chips, giving valuable information to the table in the process? 

I guess when I say, 'prove it to the table' I'm referring to that last question I ask myself before pressing call, re-raise or fold.   

What range do we place him on?

If it's a pocket pair that's not AA or KK, then we're a small underdog.
If they have Ax (where x isn't a king), then we're big favourites.
If they have AK, then it's most likely chop-chop.
If they have KK it's not our day, but we still might get lucky.
If they have AA it's certainly not our day, go and find the cat and kick it.

Most of the time, it's one of the first three, where we're sometimes a small dog, and sometimes a huge favourite.  The maths dictates the call.

God God. First question everyone is:

ARE YOU ON A PAY BUBBLE???

Second question:

IF SO AND THIS IS A FINAL TABLE, WHAT IS THE PAYOUT STRUCTURE?

Third Question:

ANY READS WHATSOEVER ON THE TYPE OF PLAYER THIS GUY IS / A POSSIBLE RANGE OF HANDS HE MAY DO THIS WITH?

Though i agree with this, I think there are going have to be some pretty strange circumstance to make not calling with ak correct here. So i didn't ask.

Final table on Stars, $8+.8 tourney.

Yeah, but everyone should know that there are the important factors that we need to know. This guy could be running at 12 / 4 / 2 the entire tournament and shown a propensity to overshove pf with QQ - AA. Furthermore, we could be on a 15x the buyin paybubble.

If all of that was true, would you call?

-----------

More likely, he has a very wide range here; the paybubble isn't so steep; we have to call. But people need to learn how you break these situations down and make a decision. It has nothing to do with image or "showing the table" or other lol irrelevant considerations.

It was the final table and for the lowly likes of me, the pay scale was quite steep.   We'd been playing for ages and even 12th only got $80, 9th got about $170 then it was up to just over $2.1k for 1st - that's a nice pay pay day in the $8 games :D

The guy had been playing tight and the all in preflop was very out of character for him.  The hands he'd ended up showing down had been reasonable hands and he hadn't been caught with mince that I'd seen.  I really didn't know what to put him on.  Had he raised in the same position say 2-4xBB, I'd have had a range to put him on, but all in for 455k for the sake of stealing 28kish in blinds and antes?  It just didn't add up and I didn't know what to think so I folded as I didn't want to lose my nice stack on what could have been anything.

I don't think it's the worst mistake in the world.  Others might disagree.

5 handed although i hate no FE i am never passing this.

It's not the worst mistake in the world at all....some people would pass Kings here

Flushy is right for once  :D......a large % of players are calling here............but then again you won, so by definition it WAS the right decision at the time.

winning doesn't mean it was the right decision...

you have his range so dead in this spot tht you have to call.  He is probs open shoving with TJs+ QJo+ and 22+ as its and $8 donkament and he has an awkward stack size.

Thinly disguised brag post IMO  :D



PS. Very nice result!

If its uncharacteristic of him to open shove preflop and he is normally playing tight solid then you can easily put him on JJ or QQ. They are hands he knows are strong but he has a history of getting beaten when seeing a flop with them and so is scared of seeing a flop. He can't fold them so he open shoves and leaves it all to lady luck. I see it all the time and unless I want to race then I will fold (if there is extra value in the pot then I might call).

If the guy is at all loose then I instacall because I crush his range..

If aq is his range we are  50% to win the pot, with the overlay in the pot. Not calling would be a mistake. I would be very surprised if aq isn't in his range.


924,644,160  games     0.005 secs   184,928,832,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    49.175%     38.86%    10.32%         359277240     95413566.00   { AKo }
Hand 1:    50.825%     40.51%    10.32%         374539788     95413566.00   { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

50% makes it incorrect to call given the difference between TEV and $EV, i would suggest though that his range doesn't cover AA and KK.

Hmmm, maybe im missing something but this isnt a clear cut 100% call all day long in my eyes. Its a 40BB shove and surely its worth considering a fold. fwiw i prolly fold here.

It just didn't add up and I didn't know what to think so I folded  

If thats the case then you have to fold as you can not justify any call, and this comes from some one who has just missed out on a ticket for the Irish Open, with expenses, to a  Aspades 4d, I had  Ad Ks we both hit a ace and he hit his four, but then I felt he was pushing and it was heads up. Boy did the cat fly across the room.

Very unlucky Squid, (and the cat).

50p :)

I can't stand cats, but was thinking of getting one solely for this purpose.

i dont think it s a bad fold,he goes all in in ep when he is under no pressure to make a move,it would be a bad move with ace queen i think,he could have aces but it looks like queens or kings to me, dont think he has ace queen, so its a race, lots of advice ive read seems to think its ok to throw your ace king away if you think its a race and you have no need to gamble .kings or aces your in bad shape,if the bb where a lot bigger or he had a smaller stack i would call i would of thought twice about calling here myself but its not a bad call i think you would need to get lucky

AQ is about 1000 times more likely than AA/KK

boldie, I still picked up a $1000 so it wasnt a 50p game, what really gets me is he if makes that sort of move then its a waste of a ticket.