blonde poker forum

Would really appreciate some info on what to shove my few quid on....So what is almost certain to go well.

My last £150 is riding on it!!! May the force be with me!

ask glasgow bandit he may be able to help lol  rotflmfao

yeah Bandit will know!

Seriously..If you want to stake 150£ on 1 certainty. Stick Kauto star and Inglis Drever ina  double. 600£ return so 450£ profit...easy

I like Noland, although the price is looking a little skinny @ 5/2 now.

thinking il be laying this wasn't impressed by its last win

agreed, and don't think it'll improve enough off the back of that

You can lay me a little more @ 7/2 if you wish.... ;whistle;

A couple of small win bets on Leslingtaylor and Moon over Miami in the Arkle.

Missis Potts inn the Coral Cup but the price has collapsed today. Window of hope a good chance if it gets in the race but needs a few to come out.

Apt Approach in the bumper looks to have a great chance.

Inglis Drever looks really solid tho maybe Wichita Lineman could improve a lot now the stable is getting back into form.

Gold cup looks a 2 haorse race but I could see either Exotic Dancer or Neptune Collonges running pretty well esp if the rain is heavy between now and the off.

Ive had a decent bet each way on Crozan in  the Grand Annual, like Country Zen in the County hurdle.

If you bet now most firms are non runner no bet but the ground is likely to be key to a lot of runners.

Bon Accord in the Foxhunters. Can get 12s. Will go very close.

Inglis is no cert Boldie. Kauto most probs is

I don't see anything beating Inglis..really I just don't...I much prefer not backing an even money shot at Cheltenham but nothing in the race is as good as Inglis...fair enough if you disagree and have a name of an EW shot for me though as I don't mind opposing a favourite and everything is 1/4 of the price

i think everyone knows the tactics denman will have to use to burn off kauto, it will be hard if ground is good to soft for denman to run the pace out of kauto, there now saying the forecast is for heavy downpours early next week, if this happens it will be a different race as you know,you have to fancy kauto but ive got 5/1 for denman so happy with my bet,i am really looking forward to seeing how kauto reacts  when denman sets a fast pace and is still able to try and kick clear a long way from home, i was thinking of doing a littlie forecast bet for value on denman and exotic if it gets very soft ,kauto could come a cropper if he gets tired and he makes one of his mistakes ,i agree though you have to fancy kauto if the ground stays as it is.

5-1 Denman?..hell..I would back him a bit at that price lol..that's a grand bet.

I think Kauto is about10 -15 lenghts better than Denman still..I thought Kauto could get beat last year as surely he had to make a mistake at some point but he is simply the best horse I've ever seen and the mistakes are gone.

I think the ground will be a massive factor. On real heavy Denman could run Kauto ragged and help something like Exotic Dancer or Neptune Coll run into the places if Kauto does falter in a true run heavy ground 3 1/4 miles.

On goodish ground I would imagine Kauto being given a quiet like last year for a circuit and then having the pace to go past Denman on the run in.

there is no way with the drainage at cheltenham and 3 days racing before it that the course will be heavy.

Im going on Wednesday, havnt got a clue about horse racing any tips for wednesday much appreciated.

oh i dont know about 15 len better,as you say though backing 1/1 shots at cheltenham is very tempting but a few over the years which just looked unbeatable before the race have been beat very easy, my main bet the other year was black jack ketchum had a few bets on him weeks before cheltenham, bleedin thing falls at the first or 2nd in a hurdle race,lol,i love cheltenham but its that competitive i cant say anything is a cert to be  honest, the bookies ar still offering 14/1 for first day to be heavy,i hope it will be but dont expect it to be heavy myself but just testing will do to give denman a chance

You are more than likely right Boldie but the forecast is for v heavy rain on Weds and Thursday

I remember backing Hardy Eustace at 33-1 to win the champion hurdle..first time he won it...not ante-post..but SP...simply because the fav was odds-on.. that's why i don't back odds on at cheltenham myself..but inglis and kauto look far better than the rest

How do you see the Champ Hurdle Boldie?, I could have 5 bets and not get the winner.

lol @ Heavy.

Good To Soft imo.

Boldie, im on Kasbah Bliss EW @ 16/1, placed the bet in Jan. Wasnt confident until he ran a blinder LTO, and i really fancy him as long as the ground is decent altho not gona get involved further until the day.

Probs do a fcast with Inglis tho tbf. The main reason i opposed him is the stats say hes too old. The stable isnt firing and he could be vunerable to an improver, but that said, i appreciate he has won convincingly against his rivals already this season.

Not even looked at the card yet - got that pencilled in for Sunday.

Will report back with anything I pick out so you guys know to avoid.

I'm not going near the champion untill the day itsself. I think Osana and Harchibald are the two to beat..but well..I was on Harchibald when he finished second and only touch him now because he's just about guarantueed to be in the first 3 and at 7-1 you can therefore back him EW. it's the most difficult champion ever though, I think.

The going at Cheltenham was definitely heavy for one of this season's earlier meetings, so it is possible.

Have you backed The Listener yet this year?

sure everything is possible...but Noah will be speaking to God again before it happens at the festival. They are predicting 27-44 mill..that's not enough to make Cheltenham heavy.

I'm waiting for the ground, but if it's genuine good to soft or easier I'll definitely be on and confident of collecting.

I remember it ran in a 2M 5F novice 'chase there on G/S, and gave nearly a stone in weight and a two length beating to Star de Mohaison.

 Specials: Cheltenham Festival Ground   

Tuesday 11 March 2008 - 14:00
 
Good to soft  4/9  1/2 
Soft  5/2  9/4 
Good  6  5 
Heavy  14  14 
Good to firm  500  500 
Firm  5000     
 

yeah the clerk of the course still says it will be on the soft side of good..no reason to doubt him the man knows what he's talking about.

The trouble is the the clerk of the course sometimes describes good to fast ground as good to soft ;)

the prices are for the first days official ground,so may be missleading for the gold cup on friday, there could be a big difference in the ground from tues to friday if the rain that is prediicted does come

lol @heavy?, which weather forecast have you used to reach that conclusion. Take a look at the market movers in the Coral Cup and you will find the light weights that go on soft ground have been cut over the last few days. It doesnt mean the forecast will be right but Chelters were going to water over the last few days and havent due to the forecast.

and the reason The Listener has been shortened for the Ryanair is he now looks like getting the right ground and has form over further, the perfect combo If the ground gets bad.

lol, that is a market on what the ground will be at the start of the meeting, as mentioned above the forecast is for heavy rain on Weds and Thursday. The clerk of the course delivered g/s as the 'official' going last year when it was clearly much faster than that, the reason is g/s suits almost every set of connections. He eventually admitted it was much quicker the day after when the times made it obvious and changed the ground accordingly.

Ther reason g/s is that short is that they always call it that these days and if it looks like getting towards good they will water to create good to soft anyway.

Bobby1.

Cheltenham Competition Results for Rollz?

I don't understand mate.

I think I get you now, you want to play the tipster comp for bankrolls?? , OK firstly tell me what your roll is.

 ;booder;

it is rather windy out there, isn't it?

lol,you arent kidding Boldie. Will be interesting to see if the strong wind dries the ground up after the rain. I think they had about 7mm overnight which doesnt seem that much esp if the wind is a good drying one.

Forecast is heavy rain today and tomorrow, with showers on Wednesday too.

That should ensure the soft side of good at least.

I have dabbled on Kyber Kim in the opener @ 9/1

From the racingpost website;


Essentially the clerk of the course will get the ground he wanted. soft side of good..no excuses for any horses on day 1.

The Listener must have a big chance too now Ralph.

There will only be heavy rain on Thursday and Friday and with the wind being this strong there has to be some doubt as to whether Thursday will indeed be very bad..

GL50 1AA is the postcode of the race course www.metoffice.co.uk is the website of the metoffice.

With the dry spells and strong wind and great drainage at Cheltenham I still can not see it getting softer than Soft-good to soft on Friday.nice jumping ground

I agree Phil, that'll be an interesting race as Our Vic seems to like the track and trip too.

I am leaning towards those two in that race too.

Are you going this year mate?

you wont know till the day but these gale force winds could make it very hard for the front runners if there running head on into the wind, have to look out for it on tuesday if weather bad

I stopped going a couple of years ago Phil, it was just getting too crowded for me in Tatts.

I ended up watching the last two races on the telly in one of the bars there, mind you the craic is something else.

Now if I could get an invite into one of those nice private boxes.....

I was just thinking the same thing Steve when looking at the Champ hurdle, Osana gonna have a big job running a finish out of SE, Harchi and Sublimity if  the wind is head on.

I know what you mean, I swore last years was my last year, It's one thing being in the nice box with free this and that but in the end I watched most of it on the TV's, missed out on having the indexes and Betfair in front of me and had so little time pre racing and between races do do anything it just wasnt worth it.

yeah, bobby, might be worth looking for a few stayers in most of the races if the wind does make it a test of stamina

Deffo Steve, I think the Champ Hurdle is really complex this year. Osana will almost certainly be up with the pace(Katchit too) and I imagine will go for home and try to take the kick out of the finishers but that is a really tough style to pull off as you have to judge the pace perfectly and as you say its even harder if the wind is strong. If they do get it right then the finishers will need to quicken to get to Osana and then quicken again to go past it. If the race is run too fast from the front then the leaders will fall in a heap and the ones with a turn of foot wil sprint past em, but which one?

Like Boldie says Harchi seems certain to be going well turning for home, seems in good form and has been here and done it before. I think SE form is tricky to evaluate, on the book the Greatwood win gives it little in hand over Osana and then he beat two horses that stay much further than two miles in a sprint finish in Ireland.On the book it looks really short to me but visually it did look really impressive in its last two wins.

Sublimity will prob look to do as it did last year and wait for the others to show their hands and pounce late but with a few others trying to do the same its anyones guess which one gets there in my eyes. Blythe Knight will prob do the same too.

One I think could run well is Afsoun as I think it will be staying on really well as it did last year so to my mind you have two chances to win if you back it place only or buy on the index. If they do get the pace right in front and the ones with a turn if foot cant get there then Afsoun could well stay on better than them, If they go fast up front then he will get the pace in a race he hasnt had since the Champ hurdle last year. These 5 and 6 runner trials around quick tracks over 2 miles are no good to him as he needs pace to bring its galloping style into play. I dont think its good enough to win but do think it can run on up the hill whichever way the race turns out. So instead of trying to pick the winner when for me its a really complex race Im prob gonna back Afsoun for a place at around 11/2 or 6/1 or play it on the spread race indices if that looks better value.

How do you see it Steve?

its a different sort of race than it was years ago when a few hurdlers dominated the race for years, istabraq was champion, but i think so many young ones come and go, you dont really know how you stand with the form ,to be honest  i havent tried to analyse the race as well as you have bobby, sublimity and afsoun where hammered by osana in december , but it will be a different race from good ground in dec to soft in march ,sublimitys  form on good ground is poor but afsoun should also be a lot better on soft this time,and this is the race they have proved they can run well in,sublimity won so easy last year i thought at the time he could dominate for a few years , he was backed at all rates in the morning last year so if he starts to drift i wont have a penny on him, i agree about afsoun, placed 11 out of 15 in top class races running on very strongly last year,looks a banker for a place and i will be doing him in a placepot which i always do at cheltenham,if sublimity is backed i will do a forecast on afsoun to come second,if he drifts i may just put afasoun in a few ew bets

excellent, fingers crossed for a good run mate.

thanks m8, gl, looking forward to it

Right the post all you layers have been waiting for!!!

Although before I put my selections up I must point out that last Cheltenham I had an absolute stormer :)  Infact, I think that was the last time I actually showed profit.

Personally at Cheltenham I try and stay away from backing favourites, unless I am 100% convinced that its going to win.  If I have any doubt at all then I am looking at e/w shouts preferably at big prices from inform yards that can prime horses for big meetings.

So my selections for Day 1:

2:00 - Pigeon Island 2pts e/w
2:35 - Tidal Bay 2pts win
3:15 - Sublimity 5pts win (NAP)
4:00 - Mon Mome 1pt e/w
4:40 - Le Duc 2pts win
5:20 - Ashkazar 4pts win (NB)

I am hopeful that these selections will see me in profit for day 1 of the festival and perhaps we can have a few nice bets later on in the week.   After my trip to Barcelona last week I am really skint so stakes will be kept to a minimum.

gl Bandit, I hope you are right about Mon Mome, I backed this over the weekend.

i really fancy muirhead in this one.

Only two bets for me tomorrow,like actionman i really like Muirhead in the opener and Noland is the nap in the arkle.

good luck with those Micky ans Action

I have a HUGE outsider for later in the week which I will share with everyone once my bet is matched ;)

Gives a clue ;)

Let it out Karabiner

 ;popcorn;

The one that I like and have backed at a big price(33/1)ew. is The Market Man in Thursday's World Hurdle.

I remember this horse running a grand race over 2M5F and just getting up to pip Master Man last year, and I also know that his trainer feels that he may well go on to become a 'chaser of the very highest calibre. The easing ground may well act in his favour and although Inglis Drever appears home and hosed on all known form, the rest of the field does not look that formidable to me.

This is of course a somewhat speculative selection which is reflected in it's price, but he who dares.....

Why the feck did I not have a punt on this the day?  I'll tell you because I have lost a fortune sticking with this fecker!
Just die Venetia Williams.