In need of a Cheltenham winner

[steeveg]

you wont know till the day but these gale force winds could make it very hard for the front runners if there running head on into the wind, have to look out for it on tuesday if weather bad

[Karabiner]

Forecast is heavy rain today and tomorrow, with showers on Wednesday too.

That should ensure the soft side of good at least.

I have dabbled on Kyber Kim in the opener @ 9/1

The Listener must have a big chance too now Ralph.

I agree Phil, that'll be an interesting race as Our Vic seems to like the track and trip too.

I am leaning towards those two in that race too.

Are you going this year mate?

I stopped going a couple of years ago Phil, it was just getting too crowded for me in Tatts.

I ended up watching the last two races on the telly in one of the bars there, mind you the craic is something else.

Now if I could get an invite into one of those nice private boxes.....

[bobby1]

you wont know till the day but these gale force winds could make it very hard for the front runners if there running head on into the wind, have to look out for it on tuesday if weather bad

I was just thinking the same thing Steve when looking at the Champ hurdle, Osana gonna have a big job running a finish out of SE, Harchi and Sublimity if  the wind is head on.

[bobby1]

Forecast is heavy rain today and tomorrow, with showers on Wednesday too.

That should ensure the soft side of good at least.

I have dabbled on Kyber Kim in the opener @ 9/1

The Listener must have a big chance too now Ralph.

I agree Phil, that'll be an interesting race as Our Vic seems to like the track and trip too.

I am leaning towards those two in that race too.

Are you going this year mate?

I stopped going a couple of years ago Phil, it was just getting too crowded for me in Tatts.

I ended up watching the last two races on the telly in one of the bars there, mind you the craic is something else.

Now if I could get an invite into one of those nice private boxes.....

I know what you mean, I swore last years was my last year, It's one thing being in the nice box with free this and that but in the end I watched most of it on the TV's, missed out on having the indexes and Betfair in front of me and had so little time pre racing and between races do do anything it just wasnt worth it.

[steeveg]

you wont know till the day but these gale force winds could make it very hard for the front runners if there running head on into the wind, have to look out for it on tuesday if weather bad

I was just thinking the same thing Steve when looking at the Champ hurdle, Osana gonna have a big job running a finish out of SE, Harchi and Sublimity if  the wind is head on.

yeah, bobby, might be worth looking for a few stayers in most of the races if the wind does make it a test of stamina

[bobby1]

you wont know till the day but these gale force winds could make it very hard for the front runners if there running head on into the wind, have to look out for it on tuesday if weather bad

I was just thinking the same thing Steve when looking at the Champ hurdle, Osana gonna have a big job running a finish out of SE, Harchi and Sublimity if  the wind is head on.

yeah, bobby, might be worth looking for a few stayers in most of the races if the wind does make it a test of stamina

Deffo Steve, I think the Champ Hurdle is really complex this year. Osana will almost certainly be up with the pace(Katchit too) and I imagine will go for home and try to take the kick out of the finishers but that is a really tough style to pull off as you have to judge the pace perfectly and as you say its even harder if the wind is strong. If they do get it right then the finishers will need to quicken to get to Osana and then quicken again to go past it. If the race is run too fast from the front then the leaders will fall in a heap and the ones with a turn of foot wil sprint past em, but which one?

Like Boldie says Harchi seems certain to be going well turning for home, seems in good form and has been here and done it before. I think SE form is tricky to evaluate, on the book the Greatwood win gives it little in hand over Osana and then he beat two horses that stay much further than two miles in a sprint finish in Ireland.On the book it looks really short to me but visually it did look really impressive in its last two wins.

Sublimity will prob look to do as it did last year and wait for the others to show their hands and pounce late but with a few others trying to do the same its anyones guess which one gets there in my eyes. Blythe Knight will prob do the same too.

One I think could run well is Afsoun as I think it will be staying on really well as it did last year so to my mind you have two chances to win if you back it place only or buy on the index. If they do get the pace right in front and the ones with a turn if foot cant get there then Afsoun could well stay on better than them, If they go fast up front then he will get the pace in a race he hasnt had since the Champ hurdle last year. These 5 and 6 runner trials around quick tracks over 2 miles are no good to him as he needs pace to bring its galloping style into play. I dont think its good enough to win but do think it can run on up the hill whichever way the race turns out. So instead of trying to pick the winner when for me its a really complex race Im prob gonna back Afsoun for a place at around 11/2 or 6/1 or play it on the spread race indices if that looks better value.

How do you see it Steve?

[steeveg]

its a different sort of race than it was years ago when a few hurdlers dominated the race for years, istabraq was champion, but i think so many young ones come and go, you dont really know how you stand with the form ,to be honest  i havent tried to analyse the race as well as you have bobby, sublimity and afsoun where hammered by osana in december , but it will be a different race from good ground in dec to soft in march ,sublimitys  form on good ground is poor but afsoun should also be a lot better on soft this time,and this is the race they have proved they can run well in,sublimity won so easy last year i thought at the time he could dominate for a few years , he was backed at all rates in the morning last year so if he starts to drift i wont have a penny on him, i agree about afsoun, placed 11 out of 15 in top class races running on very strongly last year,looks a banker for a place and i will be doing him in a placepot which i always do at cheltenham,if sublimity is backed i will do a forecast on afsoun to come second,if he drifts i may just put afasoun in a few ew bets

[bobby1]

its a different sort of race than it was years ago when a few hurdlers dominated the race for years, istabraq was champion, but i think so many young ones come and go, you dont really know how you stand with the form ,to be honest  i havent tried to analyse the race as well as you have bobby, sublimity and afsoun where hammered by osana in december , but it will be a different race from good ground in dec to soft in march ,sublimitys  form on good ground is poor but afsoun should also be a lot better on soft this time,and this is the race they have proved they can run well in,sublimity won so easy last year i thought at the time he could dominate for a few years , he was backed at all rates in the morning last year so if he starts to drift i wont have a penny on him, i agree about afsoun, placed 11 out of 15 in top class races running on very strongly last year,looks a banker for a place and i will be doing him in a placepot which i always do at cheltenham,if sublimity is backed i will do a forecast on afsoun to come second,if he drifts i may just put afasoun in a few ew bets

excellent, fingers crossed for a good run mate.

[steeveg]

its a different sort of race than it was years ago when a few hurdlers dominated the race for years, istabraq was champion, but i think so many young ones come and go, you dont really know how you stand with the form ,to be honest  i havent tried to analyse the race as well as you have bobby, sublimity and afsoun where hammered by osana in december , but it will be a different race from good ground in dec to soft in march ,sublimitys  form on good ground is poor but afsoun should also be a lot better on soft this time,and this is the race they have proved they can run well in,sublimity won so easy last year i thought at the time he could dominate for a few years , he was backed at all rates in the morning last year so if he starts to drift i wont have a penny on him, i agree about afsoun, placed 11 out of 15 in top class races running on very strongly last year,looks a banker for a place and i will be doing him in a placepot which i always do at cheltenham,if sublimity is backed i will do a forecast on afsoun to come second,if he drifts i may just put afasoun in a few ew bets

excellent, fingers crossed for a good run mate.

thanks m8, gl, looking forward to it

[GlasgowBandit]

Right the post all you layers have been waiting for!!!

Although before I put my selections up I must point out that last Cheltenham I had an absolute stormer   Infact, I think that was the last time I actually showed profit.

Personally at Cheltenham I try and stay away from backing favourites, unless I am 100% convinced that its going to win.  If I have any doubt at all then I am looking at e/w shouts preferably at big prices from inform yards that can prime horses for big meetings.

So my selections for Day 1:

2:00 - Pigeon Island 2pts e/w
2:35 - Tidal Bay 2pts win
3:15 - Sublimity 5pts win (NAP)
4:00 - Mon Mome 1pt e/w
4:40 - Le Duc 2pts win
5:20 - Ashkazar 4pts win (NB)

I am hopeful that these selections will see me in profit for day 1 of the festival and perhaps we can have a few nice bets later on in the week.   After my trip to Barcelona last week I am really skint so stakes will be kept to a minimum.

[bobby1]

gl Bandit, I hope you are right about Mon Mome, I backed this over the weekend.

[action man]

Forecast is heavy rain today and tomorrow, with showers on Wednesday too.

That should ensure the soft side of good at least.

I have dabbled on Kyber Kim in the opener @ 9/1

i really fancy muirhead in this one.

[mickyp]

Only two bets for me tomorrow,like actionman i really like Muirhead in the opener and Noland is the nap in the arkle.

[bobby1]

good luck with those Micky ans Action

[Karabiner]

I have a HUGE outsider for later in the week which I will share with everyone once my bet is matched