blonde poker forum

10 are left. 7 are paid. £100 freezeout

two five handed tables

390,000 are in play.

the bubble has gone on for ages and you have stayed afloat by concerted pushing in open spots.

You have 50,000 and the blinds are 2,000-4,000. there are several shorter stacks than yourself, but only one on your table


you are in the bb with  Kc 9c


UTG with 80,000 limps for 4,000. This is a departure, we haven't seen a limp for quite afew orbits. It looks suspicious.

SB dwells and dwells. he is confused by the limp, clearly weighing up options eg push or call. In the end he just makes up. He is the short-stack with 35,000 or so

BB, me, checks.

12,000 in the pot

flop  6d 6s 9d

sb insta bets 8,000

sandwiched between the utg limper, and the sb...should you push in as a standard play here? Or is folding acceptable?

I would love to shove, but I fear that utg has probably got bigger than nines, but im a nit

Flat, lets you see what UTG does and you disguise the strength of your own hand to the SB

Weird hand........I think SB correctly suspects that the UTG has Aces or Kings.  He probably had a pair of nines and didn't want to shove pre-flop as he thinks he is 20% dog.  Now he knows he is ahead hence the 8k bet.  I think your hand is in fact 3rd so I'd fold here...............probably completely wrong, but there we go ;)

Same here can't see us being ahead here unless sb has something like akds and limper also has ak or aq

I think I have to fold.

How many times have you hit something from the BB, got married to it and it's cost you everything??

If you call you're going to be put to another decision on the turn. If it checks to you on the turn are you going to bet giving them the chance to re raise or check giving them the chance to bet?

I think there's going to be better opportunities to put your chips in the middle.

If you had 150k then maybe shove but you're either going out or getting crippled I feel. And I'm a total LAG in these bubble situations.  ;D

ur image is good enough that you can rep a fastplayed 6 and shove :)

On balance the best play is to call the sb's 8k. The sb looked like he wanted to raise pre-flop but chose to flat instead. The flop comes quite safe for his pair and so he takes a stab accordingly by betting 8k. The sb is likely to have 7's or 8's here. I would say 10's & J's as well but no pre-flop raise makes this less likely.

An opportunity to call this bet and represent a 6 has presented itself. Yes, it's on the bubble, but while everyone's waiting to play poker at the final why don't we use the situation to our advantage and play some poker now?

UTG is the problem. All the conditions are right for him to have strength here and as soon as you call he could insta raise. No way does he stop for a second to consider the 6, he just raises. So a fold is ok. But trying to get to the final with more chips isn't a bad idea either.

If you call and lose UTG then the pot will be yours. the sb has shown a reluctance to bet in case bad things happen and a small bet when he checks the turn takes the pot imo.

sb 100% has 77 or 88

And Mantis agrees so i'm definately correct

ship it in

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   5,516,427  games     0.103 secs    53,557,543  games/sec

Board: 6d 6s 9d
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    38.250%     30.54%    07.71%           1684732       425321.17   { Kc9c }
Hand 1:    28.247%     20.43%    07.82%           1127077       431123.17   { AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, K9s, Kd8d, QdJd, QdTd, Q9s, JdTd, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }
Hand 2:    33.503%     32.89%    00.61%           1814467        33706.67   { KK+, QcQd, QdQh, A9s-A6s, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A8o-A6o, QTo+, JTo }


---

  59,400  games     0.034 secs     1,747,058  games/sec

Board: 6d 6s 9d
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    58.999%     46.98%    12.01%             27909         7136.50   { Kc9c }
Hand 1:    41.001%     28.99%    12.01%             17218         7136.50   { AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, K9s, Kd8d, QdJd, QdTd, Q9s, JdTd, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }


---

If SB leads out for 25% of his stack here with only 77 or 88 he is making a mistake.  If he knew for a fact the open raiser had AQ or AK he would have re-raised here and taken a race if necessary because he has less than 9 big blinds.  He put him on AA or KK due to the limp - why change that view now just because there is a flop which missed 2 random high cards?  I can't see him sacrificing 25% of his stack unless he is pretty sure he is ahead.  Set of 9s imo.

Lol. I want to comment but I shall refrain.

No very constructive.......if you are picking me up for not stating that he has flopped a house.......ok you win.  :)

Not responding to you, sorry. I dealt the hand, is all.

Ah - ha - so you know the outcome or did everyone fold?  I'm sure you will reveal all in good time......

why do your ranges for hand one not include 77-JJ?

I am glad you pointed that out, I was looking over those hands and there are plenty of key hands missing from that. I couldn't work out how K9 was favourite to win when so many other possible hands are out there that win.

If I call and UTG shoves, I don't know if I believe my hand to be ahead. So I am probably calling only to fold. If UTG flats as well, I might bet the turn for information but I am probably folding to a re-raise here, and likely checking the river if called.

The range for pokerstove hand one contains like K-8 and A-2 etc...and these don't belong. The sb thinks UTG is strong and this prevents him from raising on the bubble, so I don't think hands like Q-9 qualify. The sb has a pair 7-7+ or a suited A of diamonds in his range here and that's about it.

Posted by: relaedgc
On the turn you have like 40k and the pot wont be far from that. Your days of betting for info have long gone.

I can't believe K9 is fav for the hand here. It's a fold for me BTW..though I don't mind the call that Flushy is suggesting you'd have to be a much better player than I am if the turn doesn't go your way (admittedly most people are much better players than I am though)

What do you do here if UTG just calls?

If he's got a big hand isn't he likely to flat to give the other two another chance to fire? Just seems like a very dangerous spot for us oop against a suspicious utg limp.

Not criticising, just curious as to what the plan is for the turn?

If UTG gets involved i am done with the hand.

It's clear whatever the SB has here he has played it very badly, unless its some sort of funky bluff.

That's what I thought.

Seems like a lot of chips to commit to a situation where we're likely to have to back out.

I'm still thinking fold but I can't help thinking it's weak. I don't like the call because of the likelyhood of having to back out.

Does a small raise to say 20k have any merit? This is guaranteed to remove the UTG unless he's got his over pair and makes us look like we're very strong and protecting against the flush. Anyone with genuine strength here will see us as committed and just shove. We escape with 6 big blinds and a fun shove fest to come. It's cost us more but at least we don't have to back out when we may be ahead.

Not sure about this and haven't given it too much thought but just wanted to throw it in to the mix.

Posted by: EvilPie

A small raise to 20k is half your stack so I don't think it has any merit.

If UTG is slow-playing a big pair he's going to raise whether you call or raise, because people spaz-raise with no thought when they slow-play big pairs, so the extra 12k you're putting into the pot has no effect on his actions at all. If, on the other hand he called with a weak hand he will just fold after you call, on a board that is unlikely to have improved his hand.

I think a call looks strong enough to do the job and get quality information so raising seems pointless and expensive. I doubt UTG squeezes with air considering the action and the situation. If he wanted to get aggressive he just raises pre-flop. So I agree that any interest from UTG after our call signals the end of our interest in the hand. We can find out how he feels for 8k or 20k so 8k is preferable imo. Also if sb does have a medium pair we want him shoving the turn not folding on the flop right?

All makes sense especially the spaz-raise bit.

The call is now seeming like a good idea to me.

Ta

I think its very unlikely we will have to back out, UTG probably limped something other than a big pair.

im trying to get into the mind of a player who would limp like this. i think he would slow play his premium hands and marignal hands but raise his medium strength hands. i dont think hes limping 100% of his range here.  another example in a cash game a player who plays (vpip) 30/ (pfr) 2, will often raise with suited connector type stuff and limp with his big pairs. just because he is raising 2% of hands doesnt mean he is raising his top 2% of hands.


just because the sb is worried the utg might have a big hand doesnt mean he has a big pair. i played a final table couple of days ago similar to this a big stack limps when there hasnt been any limping. i was ready to push all in with my 5's then decided to muck. turns out the player had q10.


i agree the hand range isnt going to be too accurate because of the limited information. for example if you know the sb would check raise all in with his draws you can reduce a big chunk of his range.

Posted by: UpTheMariners

I'm not sure about this logic Mariners. Saying what a cash player would do under normal conditions doesn't take into account the very specific conditions of this hand. In this hand we are on the final table bubble and 10 people really want to hit that final. So they aren't going to act like they would normally by jucing the pot with 6-7 diamonds in a £1/£2 cash game. The blinds are 2k/4k,it's a tournament bubble, and players are nursing 10-20bb's. This is a situation where the information you get is going to be very clear and the majority of people are going to have a much tighter range....especially after a suspiscious UTG limp. So hands like A-2 and K-8 just aren't going to fit with this situation.

i think you need to reread my ranges for the utg player(a2 and k8 arnt in his range). there is little information on this guy so he could quite easily be limping with hands he shouldnt. i think limping utg is a pritty weak play 5 handed (esp on bubble) so therefore he could quite easily be limping with a wide range.

Yep, agree with that regarding UTG. He doesn't necessarily need strength to limp here. The sb's hand on the other hand includes the type of range I'm talking about and I think you can tighten that up significantly. That's why I say if we lose UTG with just a call we should be a firm favourite to win the hand against the sb.

kk v a9 v k9 imo

pessimistaments

thank you for all the comments

I passed.

UTG passed

SB proudly showed 10 10

I don't actually consider my play of the hand that good really, for all the reasons Mantis and Flushy allude to

Did you consider calling for the TD before the hand was dealt and request that a deal should be made for the bubble and that it should be a 10 man final.

You really are a sad individual

im insulted by this personal attack  FACT