bubble situation

[TightEnd]

10 are left. 7 are paid. £100 freezeout

two five handed tables

390,000 are in play.

the bubble has gone on for ages and you have stayed afloat by concerted pushing in open spots.

You have 50,000 and the blinds are 2,000-4,000. there are several shorter stacks than yourself, but only one on your table


you are in the bb with 


UTG with 80,000 limps for 4,000. This is a departure, we haven't seen a limp for quite afew orbits. It looks suspicious.

SB dwells and dwells. he is confused by the limp, clearly weighing up options eg push or call. In the end he just makes up. He is the short-stack with 35,000 or so

BB, me, checks.

12,000 in the pot

flop 

sb insta bets 8,000

sandwiched between the utg limper, and the sb...should you push in as a standard play here? Or is folding acceptable?

[jizzemm]

I would love to shove, but I fear that utg has probably got bigger than nines, but im a nit

[Royal Flush]

Flat, lets you see what UTG does and you disguise the strength of your own hand to the SB

[DungBeetle]

Weird hand........I think SB correctly suspects that the UTG has Aces or Kings.  He probably had a pair of nines and didn't want to shove pre-flop as he thinks he is 20% dog.  Now he knows he is ahead hence the 8k bet.  I think your hand is in fact 3rd so I'd fold here...............probably completely wrong, but there we go

[mondatoo]

I would love to shove, but I fear that utg has probably got bigger than nines, but im a nit

Same here can't see us being ahead here unless sb has something like akds and limper also has ak or aq

[EvilPie]

I think I have to fold.

How many times have you hit something from the BB, got married to it and it's cost you everything??

If you call you're going to be put to another decision on the turn. If it checks to you on the turn are you going to bet giving them the chance to re raise or check giving them the chance to bet?

I think there's going to be better opportunities to put your chips in the middle.

If you had 150k then maybe shove but you're either going out or getting crippled I feel. And I'm a total LAG in these bubble situations. 

[AlexMartin]

ur image is good enough that you can rep a fastplayed 6 and shove

[MANTIS01]

On balance the best play is to call the sb's 8k. The sb looked like he wanted to raise pre-flop but chose to flat instead. The flop comes quite safe for his pair and so he takes a stab accordingly by betting 8k. The sb is likely to have 7's or 8's here. I would say 10's & J's as well but no pre-flop raise makes this less likely.

An opportunity to call this bet and represent a 6 has presented itself. Yes, it's on the bubble, but while everyone's waiting to play poker at the final why don't we use the situation to our advantage and play some poker now?

UTG is the problem. All the conditions are right for him to have strength here and as soon as you call he could insta raise. No way does he stop for a second to consider the 6, he just raises. So a fold is ok. But trying to get to the final with more chips isn't a bad idea either.

If you call and lose UTG then the pot will be yours. the sb has shown a reluctance to bet in case bad things happen and a small bet when he checks the turn takes the pot imo.

[Sunday8pm]

sb 100% has 77 or 88

[Sunday8pm]

And Mantis agrees so i'm definately correct

[UpTheMariners]

ship it in

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   5,516,427  games     0.103 secs    53,557,543  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    38.250%     30.54%    07.71%           1684732       425321.17   { Kc9c }
Hand 1:    28.247%     20.43%    07.82%           1127077       431123.17   { AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, K9s, Kd8d, QdJd, QdTd, Q9s, JdTd, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }
Hand 2:    33.503%     32.89%    00.61%           1814467        33706.67   { KK+, QcQd, QdQh, A9s-A6s, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A8o-A6o, QTo+, JTo }


---

  59,400  games     0.034 secs     1,747,058  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    58.999%     46.98%    12.01%             27909         7136.50   { Kc9c }
Hand 1:    41.001%     28.99%    12.01%             17218         7136.50   { AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, K9s, Kd8d, QdJd, QdTd, Q9s, JdTd, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }


---

[DungBeetle]

If SB leads out for 25% of his stack here with only 77 or 88 he is making a mistake.  If he knew for a fact the open raiser had AQ or AK he would have re-raised here and taken a race if necessary because he has less than 9 big blinds.  He put him on AA or KK due to the limp - why change that view now just because there is a flop which missed 2 random high cards?  I can't see him sacrificing 25% of his stack unless he is pretty sure he is ahead.  Set of imo.

[relaedgc]

Lol. I want to comment but I shall refrain.

[DungBeetle]

No very constructive.......if you are picking me up for not stating that he has flopped a house.......ok you win. 

[relaedgc]

No very constructive.......if you are picking me up for not stating that he has flopped a house.......ok you win. 

Not responding to you, sorry. I dealt the hand, is all.