bubble situation

[DungBeetle]

Ah - ha - so you know the outcome or did everyone fold?  I'm sure you will reveal all in good time......

[TightEnd]

ship it in

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   5,516,427  games     0.103 secs    53,557,543  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    38.250%     30.54%    07.71%           1684732       425321.17   { Kc9c }
Hand 1:    28.247%     20.43%    07.82%           1127077       431123.17   { AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, K9s, Kd8d, QdJd, QdTd, Q9s, JdTd, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }
Hand 2:    33.503%     32.89%    00.61%           1814467        33706.67   { KK+, QcQd, QdQh, A9s-A6s, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A8o-A6o, QTo+, JTo }


---

  59,400  games     0.034 secs     1,747,058  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    58.999%     46.98%    12.01%             27909         7136.50   { Kc9c }
Hand 1:    41.001%     28.99%    12.01%             17218         7136.50   { AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, K9s, Kd8d, QdJd, QdTd, Q9s, JdTd, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }


---

why do your ranges for hand one not include 77-JJ?

[relaedgc]

I am glad you pointed that out, I was looking over those hands and there are plenty of key hands missing from that. I couldn't work out how K9 was favourite to win when so many other possible hands are out there that win.

If I call and UTG shoves, I don't know if I believe my hand to be ahead. So I am probably calling only to fold. If UTG flats as well, I might bet the turn for information but I am probably folding to a re-raise here, and likely checking the river if called.

[MANTIS01]

The range for pokerstove hand one contains like K-8 and A-2 etc...and these don't belong. The sb thinks UTG is strong and this prevents him from raising on the bubble, so I don't think hands like Q-9 qualify. The sb has a pair 7-7+ or a suited A of diamonds in his range here and that's about it.

Posted by: relaedgc

If UTG flats as well I might bet the turn for information but I am probably folding to a re-raise here

On the turn you have like 40k and the pot wont be far from that. Your days of betting for info have long gone.

[boldie]

I can't believe K9 is fav for the hand here. It's a fold for me BTW..though I don't mind the call that Flushy is suggesting you'd have to be a much better player than I am if the turn doesn't go your way (admittedly most people are much better players than I am though)

[EvilPie]

Flat, lets you see what UTG does and you disguise the strength of your own hand to the SB

What do you do here if UTG just calls?

If he's got a big hand isn't he likely to flat to give the other two another chance to fire? Just seems like a very dangerous spot for us oop against a suspicious utg limp.

Not criticising, just curious as to what the plan is for the turn?

[Royal Flush]

Flat, lets you see what UTG does and you disguise the strength of your own hand to the SB

What do you do here if UTG just calls?

If he's got a big hand isn't he likely to flat to give the other two another chance to fire? Just seems like a very dangerous spot for us oop against a suspicious utg limp.

Not criticising, just curious as to what the plan is for the turn?

If UTG gets involved i am done with the hand.

It's clear whatever the SB has here he has played it very badly, unless its some sort of funky bluff.

[EvilPie]

Flat, lets you see what UTG does and you disguise the strength of your own hand to the SB

What do you do here if UTG just calls?

If he's got a big hand isn't he likely to flat to give the other two another chance to fire? Just seems like a very dangerous spot for us oop against a suspicious utg limp.

Not criticising, just curious as to what the plan is for the turn?

If UTG gets involved i am done with the hand.

It's clear whatever the SB has here he has played it very badly, unless its some sort of funky bluff.

That's what I thought.

Seems like a lot of chips to commit to a situation where we're likely to have to back out.

I'm still thinking fold but I can't help thinking it's weak. I don't like the call because of the likelyhood of having to back out.

Does a small raise to say 20k have any merit? This is guaranteed to remove the UTG unless he's got his over pair and makes us look like we're very strong and protecting against the flush. Anyone with genuine strength here will see us as committed and just shove. We escape with 6 big blinds and a fun shove fest to come. It's cost us more but at least we don't have to back out when we may be ahead.

Not sure about this and haven't given it too much thought but just wanted to throw it in to the mix.

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: EvilPie

Does a small raise to say 20k have any merit? This is guaranteed to remove the UTG unless he's got his over pair and makes us look like we're very strong and protecting against the flush. Anyone with genuine strength here will see us as committed and just shove. We escape with 6 big blinds and a fun shove fest to come. It's cost us more but at least we don't have to back out when we may be ahead.

Not sure about this and haven't given it too much thought but just wanted to throw it in to the mix.

A small raise to 20k is half your stack so I don't think it has any merit.

If UTG is slow-playing a big pair he's going to raise whether you call or raise, because people spaz-raise with no thought when they slow-play big pairs, so the extra 12k you're putting into the pot has no effect on his actions at all. If, on the other hand he called with a weak hand he will just fold after you call, on a board that is unlikely to have improved his hand.

I think a call looks strong enough to do the job and get quality information so raising seems pointless and expensive. I doubt UTG squeezes with air considering the action and the situation. If he wanted to get aggressive he just raises pre-flop. So I agree that any interest from UTG after our call signals the end of our interest in the hand. We can find out how he feels for 8k or 20k so 8k is preferable imo. Also if sb does have a medium pair we want him shoving the turn not folding on the flop right?

[EvilPie]

Posted by: EvilPie

Does a small raise to say 20k have any merit? This is guaranteed to remove the UTG unless he's got his over pair and makes us look like we're very strong and protecting against the flush. Anyone with genuine strength here will see us as committed and just shove. We escape with 6 big blinds and a fun shove fest to come. It's cost us more but at least we don't have to back out when we may be ahead.

Not sure about this and haven't given it too much thought but just wanted to throw it in to the mix.

A small raise to 20k is half your stack so I don't think it has any merit.

If UTG is slow-playing a big pair he's going to raise whether you call or raise, because people spaz-raise with no thought when they slow-play big pairs, so the extra 12k you're putting into the pot has no effect on his actions at all. If, on the other hand he called with a weak hand he will just fold after you call, on a board that is unlikely to have improved his hand.

I think a call looks strong enough to do the job and get quality information so raising seems pointless and expensive. I doubt UTG squeezes with air considering the action and the situation. If he wanted to get aggressive he just raises pre-flop. So I agree that any interest from UTG after our call signals the end of our interest in the hand. We can find out how he feels for 8k or 20k so 8k is preferable imo. Also if sb does have a medium pair we want him shoving the turn not folding on the flop right?

All makes sense especially the spaz-raise bit.

The call is now seeming like a good idea to me.

Ta

[Royal Flush]

Seems like a lot of chips to commit to a situation where we're likely to have to back out.

I think its very unlikely we will have to back out, UTG probably limped something other than a big pair.

[UpTheMariners]

ship it in

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   5,516,427  games     0.103 secs    53,557,543  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    38.250%     30.54%    07.71%           1684732       425321.17   { Kc9c }
Hand 1:    28.247%     20.43%    07.82%           1127077       431123.17   { AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, K9s, Kd8d, QdJd, QdTd, Q9s, JdTd, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }
Hand 2:    33.503%     32.89%    00.61%           1814467        33706.67   { KK+, QcQd, QdQh, A9s-A6s, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A8o-A6o, QTo+, JTo }


---

  59,400  games     0.034 secs     1,747,058  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    58.999%     46.98%    12.01%             27909         7136.50   { Kc9c }
Hand 1:    41.001%     28.99%    12.01%             17218         7136.50   { AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, K9s, Kd8d, QdJd, QdTd, Q9s, JdTd, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }

---

why do your ranges for hand one not include 77-JJ?

im trying to get into the mind of a player who would limp like this. i think he would slow play his premium hands and marignal hands but raise his medium strength hands. i dont think hes limping 100% of his range here.  another example in a cash game a player who plays (vpip) 30/ (pfr) 2, will often raise with suited connector type stuff and limp with his big pairs. just because he is raising 2% of hands doesnt mean he is raising his top 2% of hands.

I am glad you pointed that out, I was looking over those hands and there are plenty of key hands missing from that. I couldn't work out how K9 was favourite to win when so many other possible hands are out there that win.

If I call and UTG shoves, I don't know if I believe my hand to be ahead. So I am probably calling only to fold. If UTG flats as well, I might bet the turn for information but I am probably folding to a re-raise here, and likely checking the river if called.

just because the sb is worried the utg might have a big hand doesnt mean he has a big pair. i played a final table couple of days ago similar to this a big stack limps when there hasnt been any limping. i was ready to push all in with my 5's then decided to muck. turns out the player had q10.


i agree the hand range isnt going to be too accurate because of the limited information. for example if you know the sb would check raise all in with his draws you can reduce a big chunk of his range.

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: UpTheMariners

im trying to get into the mind of a player who would limp like this. i think he would slow play his premium hands and marignal hands but raise his medium strength hands. i dont think hes limping 100% of his range here.  another example in a cash game a player who plays (vpip) 30/ (pfr) 2, will often raise with suited connector type stuff and limp with his big pairs. just because he is raising 2% of hands doesnt mean he is raising his top 2% of hands.

I'm not sure about this logic Mariners. Saying what a cash player would do under normal conditions doesn't take into account the very specific conditions of this hand. In this hand we are on the final table bubble and 10 people really want to hit that final. So they aren't going to act like they would normally by jucing the pot with 6-7 diamonds in a £1/£2 cash game. The blinds are 2k/4k,it's a tournament bubble, and players are nursing 10-20bb's. This is a situation where the information you get is going to be very clear and the majority of people are going to have a much tighter range....especially after a suspiscious UTG limp. So hands like A-2 and K-8 just aren't going to fit with this situation.

[UpTheMariners]

Posted by: UpTheMariners

im trying to get into the mind of a player who would limp like this. i think he would slow play his premium hands and marignal hands but raise his medium strength hands. i dont think hes limping 100% of his range here.  another example in a cash game a player who plays (vpip) 30/ (pfr) 2, will often raise with suited connector type stuff and limp with his big pairs. just because he is raising 2% of hands doesnt mean he is raising his top 2% of hands.

I'm not sure about this logic Mariners. Saying what a cash player would do under normal conditions doesn't take into account the very specific conditions of this hand. In this hand we are on the final table bubble and 10 people really want to hit that final. So they aren't going to act like they would normally by jucing the pot with 6-7 diamonds in a £1/£2 cash game. The blinds are 2k/4k,it's a tournament bubble, and players are nursing 10-20bb's. This is a situation where the information you get is going to be very clear and the majority of people are going to have a much tighter range....especially after a suspiscious UTG limp. So hands like A-2 and K-8 just aren't going to fit with this situation.

i think you need to reread my ranges for the utg player(a2 and k8 arnt in his range). there is little information on this guy so he could quite easily be limping with hands he shouldnt. i think limping utg is a pritty weak play 5 handed (esp on bubble) so therefore he could quite easily be limping with a wide range.

[MANTIS01]

Yep, agree with that regarding UTG. He doesn't necessarily need strength to limp here. The sb's hand on the other hand includes the type of range I'm talking about and I think you can tighten that up significantly. That's why I say if we lose UTG with just a call we should be a firm favourite to win the hand against the sb.